Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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371 FXUS62 KILM 181742 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 143 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A storm system will bring unsettled weather through Sunday before cooler and drier weather arrives Sunday night and persists through early week. Warmer temperatures and a gradual increase in rain chances is then expected mid to late next week. && .UPDATE... Going forecast was in good shape this morning and the only adjustments were tweaks made for initial conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Weak isentropic lift will produce scattered light showers and increasing low clouds through this morning. There may be a break in overall shower activity late morning-midday, around the time a pseudo-warm front lifts north across the area. A positively tilted shortwave trough moves across the Southeast today, initiating convection in the afternoon and early evening hours. Breakup timing of the abundant low level clouds late morning will play a role in how much sunshine we get which will aid, or hinder, instability. Currently, guidance has sufficient instability and shear present beginning this afternoon to warrant a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe weather from SPC, for isolated strong winds possible. Better rain, and possibly thunderstorm, chances may come late evening-early tonight as the upper trough reaches the Carolinas and a cold front moves across, with a focus on our northern counties. Areal QPF is meager, however there may be isolated pockets of 1-2" through tonight. Chance for fog tonight behind the cold front. High temps today around 80F with dewpoints near 70F, and lows in the mid 60s tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Highlights: *No significant weather expected Confidence: *Moderate Sunday *Moderate to High Sunday night through Monday night Details: Offshore low pressure looks to move farther away Sunday with drier high pressure building in from the north Sunday night. Unsettled weather will likely persist Sunday, possibly into the evening, as moisture lingers behind the front and an upper trough moves through. Fortunately, severe weather and flooding are not expected. High temps will remain cooler than normal through the period, possibly not much warmer than the mid 70s Sunday and mid to upper 70s Monday. Lows should mostly be in the mid to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Highlights: *Low severe storm/flood risk possible Friday/Saturday Confidence: *Moderate to High through Thursday night *Moderate Friday through Saturday Details: Cool, dry high pressure should prevail through Tuesday night with temps near to below normal. Expect temperatures to rise to near to above normal levels thereafter as high pressure to the north shifts offshore setting up more southerly winds. It should remain dry until low rain chances return later Thursday and likely increase a bit through late week as a cold front approaches. There is some uncertainty regarding the strength/location of the front so for now we have kept rain chances pretty low. We may also see a low risk for severe weather/flooding return starting Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Expect terminals to be mainly VFR this afternoon, outside showers and storms. Beyond the next couple of hours, confidence in SHRA/TSRA at individual terminals is low so forecasts contain VCTS/VCSH to account for scattered convection expected to develop this afternoon into this evening. Overnight chances for rain will subside but cigs are expected to become IFR aft 06Z and be slow to lift at NE winds ensure after sunrise Sunday. Extended Outlook...Periodic flight restrictions will continue to affect the area Sun afternoon into Sun night. VFR to then mainly dominate thru Thu while high pressure takes more control. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Benign winds and seas across the local coastal waters tonight, with main hazard being a chance of thunderstorms late afternoon into overnight hours. Scattered showers possible this morning through midday with isolated thunder threat. Winds generally out of the SW around 10-15 kts into tonight before turning offshore by Sunday morning as a cold front moves off the coast. Seas continue to linger around 2 ft, with 3 footers in the outer coastal waters during the day, combination of a wind wave, a 1 ft ENE swell, and a 1 ft SE swell. Sunday through Thursday...Offshore low pressure will be moving farther away as high pressure returns from the north into mid week before shifting offshore later in the period. The cooler/drier weather will lead to a tight pressure gradient and elevated winds/seas through Monday but a Small Craft Advisory is not expected. Conditions will then improve into mid week as high pressure moves closer to the area. Winds should increase Thursday as a stronger afternoon sea breeze develops. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...31 NEAR TERM...VAO SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...31 MARINE...RJB/VAO