Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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796 FXUS61 KILN 070902 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 502 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Several rounds of showers and storms are expected through Thursday amidst a continued warm and humid pattern. Slightly cooler air will filter into the region late in the week, with slightly drier conditions also expected. However, periodic chances for showers will likely linger into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Vigorous low pressure over the northern Plains will lead to a moist southwest flow of air across the Ohio Valley today. A decaying band of showers with isolated thunder is expected to slide east through the region late this morning through early this afternoon. Severe storms are not expected with this band. As a shortwave is ejected northeast from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley, an increase in mid- level flow and backing low- level winds will be seen in the vertical profile by later in the afternoon. A surge in warm, humid air will likely occur just ahead of the shortwave`s arrival. Forecast soundings from the HRRR are concerning, with surface CAPE late this afternoon into the early evening approaching 2,500 J/kg and effective shear reaching around 60 knots. Curved hodographs lead to effective SRH exceeding 200 m^2/s^2. The latest guidance suggests a less forced environment late this afternoon, so scattered, discrete supercells are expected. All hazards appear likely with these storms. High temperatures will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... A cold front associated with the shortwave will shift east across the local forecast area late this evening through midnight. While hodographs are a bit less curved for this period, an increase in forcing leads to higher coverage of thunderstorms, and likely a more organized linear mode. Can`t rule out some embedded supercells as well based on persistent bulk shear ahead of the front. The shortwave will exit to the east late tonight, leading to a quieter conditions extending into Wednesday. Bright May sunshine allows high temperatures to exceed 80 degrees across the middle Ohio Valley. We may see some increase in cloud cover late in the period as another shortwave begins to eject northeast into the middle Mississippi Valley. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A warm frontal boundary will be draped along the Ohio River early Wednesday evening, extending east from a surface low over the mid Mississippi Valley. As the low tracks east Wednesday night, the boundary will begin to lift slowly north across southern portions of our fa. There remains some uncertainty with just how far the front will make it, along with the better instability, but the 00Z models appear to have trended everything a bit farther to the south. Still, expect to see showers and thunderstorms overspread the region Wednesday evening and continue into the night as the surface low moves through our area. With very favorable shear and an instability gradient along the boundary, some severe storms will be possible, with the best chances mainly along and south of the Ohio River, closer to the better instability. Damaging wind and large hail will be the main severe threat, although an isolated tornado will also be possible. Also, with the potential for training storms along the boundary and PWs in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range, there will be a heavy rain/flood threat, especially across southern portions of our area Wednesday night. Pcpn will taper off later Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the low moves off to the east. An upper level trough will settle in across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley heading into the weekend and into early next week. A series of embedded mid level short waves rotating through the trough will bring additional chances for showers and a few thunderstorms each the day, especially Saturday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be seasonably cool through the weekend with highs mostly in the 60s. More seasonable temperatures will return on Monday with highs in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Complicated fog vs. stratus situation unfolding across the southern sites overnight. Based on satellite trends, it appears stratus will increase across the region before allowing dense fog to develop. Latest TAFs present this solution. There is more uncertainty as to how low cloud bases will go... in particularly a little further north across the Columbus terminals. Burn off of the stratus is likely to occur due to warm air advection in the low levels around noon today. Will continue to monitor this to tweak the timing. However, thunderstorm development will likely produce the most impact in the TAF period. Latest trends indicate the convection will begin to wane and move off to the east toward the end of the period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday into Wednesday night. MVFR/IFR CIGs are possible Wednesday night into early Thursday and again on Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...