752
FXUS63 KJKL 021841
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
241 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enjoy drier and more comfortable conditions for today and
  Thursday.

- Independence Day looks beautiful and very warm, with mostly
  sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, perfect for
  outdoor celebrations!

- Starting this weekend and into early next week, prepare for
  increasing heat and humidity, which will make it feel like the
  90s, along with daily chances for pop-up showers and
  thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 241 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025

The latest surface analysis across the CONUS reveals a dome of
surface high pressure situated over much of the central United
States. A quasi-stationary frontal boundary extends from northeast
to southeast, oriented parallel to the Atlantic Seaboard. Locally,
our weather will remain under the influence of this surface high-
pressure regime, ensuring warm and dry conditions through the
remainder of the forecast period.

Throughout the remainder of today, the surface high pressure will
continue to build into the forecast area, maintaining warm and dry
weather. Todays high temperatures are expected to reach the mid to
upper 80s. Fortunately, upper-level northwesterly flow will advect
drier air into the region, which will keep heat indices closer to
the actual ambient temperatures. The influence of CAA will be more
pronounced in the overnight hours, with low temperatures forecast to
fall into the low to mid-60s. As is common during summer nights,
widespread valley fog can be anticipated overnight.

Thursday will feature a continuation of this weather pattern as the
ridge of high pressure persists over much of the CONUS. Temperatures
for Thursday will again be warm, with highs forecast to be in the
mid to upper 80s. Similarly, the drier northwesterly flow will
continue to keep heat index values near the actual temperatures.
Thursday night lows are forecast to be slightly warmer, settling
into the mid-60s, accompanied by widespread valley fog.

In summary, surface high pressure will build into the region,
ushering in dry weather with high temperatures climbing into the mid-
80s. Overnight lows will generally remain in the low to mid-60s,
with widespread valley fog expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025

The long-term period analysis opens on Thursday morning with a
500H trough extending southward from Quebec into the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a 500H ridge extends from the
Gulf of America northward through the Central Plains and into
Manitoba/Saskatchewan. Translating down to the surface, an ~1018
mb high is centered over the Mid-Mississippi Valley but is
expansive and already very much in control of the weather over
eastern Kentucky. Deep layer northwesterly flow to the east of the
surface high and upper-level ridge is feeding a warm but dry
continental air mass into the Eastern Kentucky Coalfields.

As the aforementioned trough departs into the Canadian Maritimes
and West Atlantic, the upper-level ridge axis will translate
eastward to a position over the Commonwealth Saturday morning. The
associated surface reflection strengthens as it lifts northeast
and becomes an ~1022 mb high centered near/over Eastern
Pennsylvania. Moisture levels, remaining relatively low under a
continental air mass, will begin to inch higher beginning Saturday
as a southerly flow from the subtropics develops on the backside
of the surface high. PWATs will rise back into the 1.5 to 1.8 inch
range by Monday and Tuesday (or to between the 75th and 90th
percentile relative to climatology). At the same time, the upper-
level ridge flattens with a notable weakness developing over the
Ohio Valley between a Pacific shortwave trough passing through the
northern CONUS and a potential upper low of tropical origin
trying to press northward. Specific details become more obscure
due to increased model spread during the last couple days of the
forecast period, but the return of diurnally modulated deep
convection is probable from Sunday onward.

In sensible terms, a dry warming trend will be underway on
Thursday and continue right into the upcoming weekend with mostly
sunny days and mostly clear nights. High temperatures on Thursday
reach the mid to upper 80s, upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday, and
lower to mid 90s on Saturday. Moderate dew points will allow for
good cooling at night though with low temperatures forecast in the
lower to middle 60s on Thursday night and mainly middle 60s on
Friday night. Heading into early next week, the increasing
humidity levels will help limit the diurnal temperature range a
few degrees with highs slipping to near 90 degrees for Monday and
Tuesday while nighttime minimums moderate to near 70 degrees. In
spite of the cooling daytime highs, the higher humidity levels
will still result in heat indices rising well into the 90s on both
afternoons. Also, with that rise in moisture, we will see the
return of daily pop-up shower and thunderstorm chances from Sunday
onward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025

VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites minus KJKL and
KSJS which are still recovering from this morning`s stratus deck.
That stratus deck is eroding and those two sites will improve to
VFR in the next hour or two. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail
across all TAF sites through the remainder of the day. River
valley fog may develop overnight leading to a reduction in
category through 13Z-14Z before returning to VFR. Lastly, winds
will be light and variable.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...VORST