National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FNUS73 KMKX 221043
FWSMKX

Spot Forecast for Bradys Rx Burn...Wi DNR
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
543 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on April 22.

Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become
unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Gusty southwest 20 foot winds will quickly increase to 15 to 20
MPH, with gusts to 30 MPH, at ignition and into this afternoon.
Deep mixing heights of 4000 to 6000 feet AGL should occur as well,
which will result in relative humidity values dropping into the
20 to 25 percent range this afternoon. Excellent smoke dispersal
values are forecast this afternoon.

The gusty winds and very low relative humidity values will result
in elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. The relative
humidity values could drop a little lower, if deeper mixing
occurs. The middle to high clouds moving in this afternoon may
limit this potential.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Patchy frost
                    early in the morning.
Temperature.........61 at ignition...Max 65.
RH..................29 percent at ignition...Min 23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 13 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming
                    southwest 15 to 16 mph with gusts to around 24
                    mph.
Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5900 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 17 mph increasing to 23 to 32
                    mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (70400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent /103900
                    knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...excellent /150700
                    knot-ft/ in the afternoon.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 6.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........5   4   16  27  38  48  57  67  74
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............50  55  59  61  63  64  65  65  64
RH..............50  41  34  29  26  24  25  26  27
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   9   11  13  15  16  16  16  16
20 FT wind gust.12  16  18  20  21  23  24  24  24
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 2.3 3.5 4.7 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 4.2
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.14  17  23  25  29  29  30  31  32
Haines index....6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100020  35  70  104 148 145 148 151 117

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the evening.
Temperature.........Min 48.
RH..................Max 80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 12 to 16 mph with gusts to
                    around 28 mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 21 to 28 mph shifting to the west
                    around 17 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (65600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (9700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........80  87  88  89  90  85  80  74  62  51  39  35
Weather cov.....    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............63  61  59  58  56  55  55  55  54  53  51  51
RH..............29  32  36  39  45  47  47  47  50  57  63  66
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..15  15  15  15  16  16  17  17  16  15  14  12
20 FT wind gust.23  22  23  25  26  26  28  28  26  24  22  19
Mix hgt (kft)...2.7 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
Transp wind spd.28  22  23  22  23  25  26  26  25  23  21  17
Haines index....5   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100066  25  24  20  19  24  26  23  20  16  14  10

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    partly sunny (60-70 percent). Rain showers
                    likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 66.
RH..................Min 36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 16 mph. Gusts up to 29 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 16 to 25 mph increasing to 25 to 29 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (70100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (92500
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........32  28  36  44  51  58  65  72  69  66  63  60
Weather cov.....                            LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............50  49  52  56  60  62  63  64  65  65  64  63
RH..............71  77  71  62  55  48  43  40  37  37  38  39
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..11  10  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  16  16  15
20 FT wind gust.17  14  14  17  18  20  21  22  23  23  23  21
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 3.7 5.4 7.1 6.6 6.2 5.7 4.2
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.16  16  20  20  21  22  25  28  28  29  29  25
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/10008   7   17  26  36  70  119 170 159 154 142 93

$$
Forecaster...Wood
Requested by...Nathan Holoubek
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411682.0/MKX
.DELDT 04/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Nathan.holoubek@wi.gov