470
FXUS62 KMLB 170112
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
912 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Current-Overnight...The ECSB continues to slowly trudge inland this
evening. Quite a discrepancy in PWATs behind the weak frontal
boundary across the south-central peninsula, with values between
0.75-1.00 inches across the I-4 corridor up to 1.85 inches over
Martin County. Even with intense surface heating earlier this is the
difference between small Cumulus fields northward and ISOLD-WDLY SCT
showers/ISOLD storms well south. Will watch for convection southward
thru around mid-evening, then generally dry for land areas
overnight. Some models suggesting patchy fog formation late
overnight into early Fri morning across the Space/Treasure coasts
and over to Okeechobee County. Confidence is low on exactly where,
but we do have mention in the grids/zones for these areas. Overnight
lows continue warm and mild and well into the 60s and L70s.

Fri...Previous...Some hi-res guidance shows a small MCS tracking
E/SE across the NE Gulf early in the day, weakening as it reaches
our northern sections during the late morning. Meanwhile, the
frontal boundary will begin to lift back northward along with its
assocd band of moisture. So have drawn a small 20 PoP across the
area for isolated showers and storms mainly in the afternoon. Max
temps will be hot with widespread mid 90s, even lower 90s at the
coast due to a delayed sea breeze onset. With the increasing
dewpoints/humidity, it will feel more oppressive with peak heat
indices 100-105.

&&

.AVIATION...Light WRLY wind component over the interior ahead of
the slowly inland moving sea breeze, with winds backing E/SE behind
it. Any ISOLD evening convection from FPR-SUA will diminish into mid-
evening. Will need to watch for patchy fog (MVFR VSBYs) late
tonight/early Fri morning INVOF stalled frontal boundary, esp
VRB/FPR. This boundary will lift back northward during the day on
Fri with L/V morning winds becoming SW/W 5-10 kts over the interior,
backing SERLY 10-12 kts at coastal terminals with sea breeze passage
in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...Overnight/Fri...As previously mentioned, weak frontal
boundary draped over the southern waters tonight will begin to lift
northward during the day on Fri as light southerly to variable winds
with a weak pressure gradient gradually giving way to a SERLY flow 7-
12 kts in the afternoon. Any convection over the Treasure Coast this
evening will gradually diminish. ISOLD showers/storms in the
forecast on Fri. Seas 1-2 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Previous...Fri...No wind or low RH concerns. Above
normal temps in the M90s, L90s coast with min RH values around 40
percent. Peak heat indices generally in the U90s to L100s.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Sedlock/Watson