107
FNUS73 KMPX 081038
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Vermillion Rx...MNDNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
538 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CDT on May 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

RH values will approach 30% this afternoon with temperatures warming
into the mid 70s. Winds will remain calm through 9AM, with
east-northeasterly winds gradually increasing to around 10 mph through
the morning. A few gusts up to 20 mph are possible during the
afternoon. A scattered shower or thunderstorm is unlikely during the
afternoon, with chances higher after sunset.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........50 at ignition...Max 75.
RH..................86 percent at ignition...Min 34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 2 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming east
                    6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /1100 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /67200 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 3 mph shifting to the east 6 to 14
                    mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR PC  PC  MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....                                            SCH
Weather type....                                            RW
Tstm cov........                                            SCH
Temp............50  50  54  59  62  65  67  69  71  73  75  75
RH..............86  86  77  67  62  54  50  45  41  37  34  36
20 FT wind dir..SE  E   NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   3   6   7   8   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.    3   3   6   9   10  12  13  13  13  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.5 3.4 4.6 5.4 6.7 6.2 5.6
Transp wind dir.W   E   NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  E   E
Transp wind spd.3   6   6   8   7   9   13  13  14  12  10  12
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the evening. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms through the night. Chance of rain
                    showers overnight.
Temperature.........Min 48.
RH..................Max 89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 7 to 8 mph increasing to 8 to
                    12 mph in the late evening and overnight. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    early in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (50500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (6200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 13 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the morning. Chance of
                    rain showers in the morning.
Temperature.........Max 63.
RH..................Min 46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 9 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (70200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......5400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 14 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Ahasic
Requested by...Kevin Berens
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413432.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/08/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kevin.berens@state.mn.us