065
FNUS73 KMPX 051301
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for John A. Scharf Memorial WMA Rx Burn...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
801 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For the Memorial WMA Rx Burn, Southerly winds at ignition at 4-7mph.
Winds will increase to 6-12mph by mid-late morning and remain out
of the south. Gusts are not forecast to be an issue today.
RH values will drop below 40% this afternoon as temperatures warm up
quickly with mostly clear skies forecast throughout the day. Transport
winds will be between 10 to 15mph out of the south.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Temperature.........55 at ignition...Max 69.
RH..................61 percent at ignition...Min 31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 6 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /19900 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /76100 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6000 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............55  59  62  64  65  66  68  69  68  67  64  59
RH..............61  49  43  40  37  34  32  31  32  33  38  51
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..6   7   9   9   10  10  12  12  13  13  10  12
20 FT wind gust.9   10  14  14  16  16  17  17  20  20  16  17
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 4.7 5.1 5.6 5.8 5.7 6.0 5.9 5.7 4.1 0.6 0.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE
Transp wind spd.9   10  12  13  13  13  14  15  16  20  15  17
Haines index....4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Temperature.........Min 49.
RH..................Max 83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (79700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (7500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 15 to 21 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon. Chance of
                    rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 73.
RH..................Min 49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Windy. Southeast winds 17 to 25 mph increasing
                    to 28 to 30 mph with gusts to around 46 mph
                    late in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (94900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (113100
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 21 to 28 mph increasing to around 41
                    mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Hewett
Requested by...Nicholas Snavely
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413183.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/05/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Nicholas.Snavely@state.mn.us