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000
FXUS63 KMQT 241738
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
138 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and dry air, clear skies, and light winds today through
  tonight. Warmer Thursday into this weekend.
- More unsettled weather expected for the coming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

GOES satellite imagery shows completely sunny skies over the U.P.
early this afternoon as a high pressure sets up over Lake Superior
for the rest of today through tonight. This high will keep winds
light across the area through tonight, with many of the interior
areas becoming completely calm during the overnight hours.
Meanwhile, local observations have shown temps struggling to get
into the 40s, with so far only the interior west succeeding in doing
so. With cold air aloft being stubborn in leaving the area the rest
of today through tonight, expect highs to be limited to the 40s
across most of the area, save a few spots in the interior west
hitting 50 and the upper 30s along the Lake Superior shoreline; as
for lows, thinking they will generally be in the 20s, although a few
spots in the interior east could dip down into the upper teens
tonight. Expect the dry conditions created by the high pressure to
continue through the short-term too; min RHs are still expected to
bottom out into the upper teens to around 20%, while RH recoveries
tonight are looking to only max out in the 70 to 90% range.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a trough on the west coast, a ridge in
the plains and a trough on the east coast 00z Thu. Troughing moves
into the central Rockies 00z Fri with a ridge over the upper Great
Lakes. The trough then becomes negatively tilted in the central
plains 12z Fri and then moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sat.
Deeper moisture and 850-500 mb q-vector convergence moves into the
area 18z Fri and remains into 12z Sat. Did slow down pops into the
area Friday as they looked way too fast with a system being
negatively tilted and antecedent airmass out ahead of it is awfully
dry. Went dry for Fri morning and would not be surprised if Fri for
the whole area does not turn out to be dry.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the
southern Rockies and a negatively tilted shortwave over the upper
Mississippi River Valley and a ridge on the east coast 12z Sat. The
trough moves into the central plains 12z Sun and then becomes
negatively tilted as it moves northeast into the upper Great Lakes
12z Mon. This negatively tilted trough slows down and remains over
the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue. Ridging then moves into the area 12z
Wed. Temperatures are above normal on Saturday and then fall to near
normal Sunday into Tuesday with an active and wet weather pattern
setting up. Temperatures go back above normal on Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions persist through the forecast as light northeasterly-
ish winds become southerly late in the period due to high pressure
moving through Lake Superior into the Lower Great Lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Winds continue to diminish below 20 knots today as high pressure
builds in. This high then lingers over the Great Lakes through
Thursday which will keep winds suppressed until Friday when winds
will increase from the southeast/east to 20 to 30 knots and may push
gale force gusts up to 40 knots Friday night along the U.S. Canadian
waters region of eastern Lake Superior. Low pressure then forecast
to track northeast across the region this weekend...which in turn
will bring winds back around from the north in the Sunday time
frame. Winds stay up to around 30 knots Saturday into Monday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     LSZ248>250.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...07