Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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717 FXUS63 KMQT 132046 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 446 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather continues through Wednesday, then periods of showers expected with a few embedded t-storms possible Thursday through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 Ridging has filtered into the region today as high pressure emanating out of northwestern Ontario inched closer. The result has been clear and hazy skies with northerly to northwesterly flow across the area. The haze has improved through the day per webcams and GOES 16 imagery, but there`s still some lingering and some minor visibility restrictions being observed in some places, namely close to or on the other side of the WI/MI stateline. Daytime highs have climbed into the 50s and 60s, save for mid-upper 40s by Lake Superior. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 443 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 Mid-level ridging in central Canada will support sfc high pres over Hudson Bay for the next few days. This high extends ridging s across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley through Wednesday. Northerly flow off the Lake on Tuesday results in a north-south temp gradient with temps around 50F near Lake Superior to mid 60s farthest from the lake. Lighter easterly flow on Wednesday allows for deeper mixing and warmer temps approaching 60F near Lake Superior and 70F across the interior. Models have broad agreement on troffing progressing into the central U.S. bringing the next rain chances, mainly on and after Thu. Thereafter, model spread rapidly increases into and thru the weekend due to major differences in timing/amplitude of waves rounding a ridge just off of the W Coast. These differences translate to a very uncertain progression and amplitude of waves downstream to the Great Lakes region. At this time, a return to a pattern characterized by frequent rain chances is favored. Ensemble guidance also indicates a chance for a system to bring a period of widespread steady rain early next week. Temps during the last half of the week should tilt toward above normal, but that will depend on the amount of cloudiness and precipitation. Next week, ensembles suggest temps will generally be on the cool side of normal under fairly widespread negative height anomalies across a good portion of the northern half of the Lwr 48. Beginning tonight thru Tue night, aforementioned sfc high pres extends south across the Upper Great Lakes region. Fcst soundings suggest mainly clear nights tonight and Tue night and a mainly sunny day on Tue. With sfc high pres ridge more firmly over the area Tue night, Tue night will likely be the cooler night though there may be some high clouds to contend with. Precipitable water is not especially low to really enhance the cooling potential. Still, with precipitable water running 55-70pct of normal, will favor the lower side of available guidance, especially Tue night. Expect min temps ranging thru the 30s F tonight, coolest interior w half. Tue night should be a little cooler with mins at traditional interior cold spots having a better shot at slipping just blo 30F. A gradient onshore wind enhanced by the lake breeze component on Tue will lead to cool conditions along Lake Superior. Expect highs in the upper 40s F there. Temps will range up to the mid 60s F well inland interior w half. Drier air aloft mixes down to the surface during the aftn resulting in RH falling to 20-30pct interior w half, but lighter winds not gusting above 15mph will limit fire weather concerns. Sfc high pressure slides east across Ontario resulting in dry easterly flow downsloping off the Canadian Shield. Increasing upper level clouds and Canadian wildfire smoke/haze may limit warming, but lighter winds should allow temps to warm to at least the upper 50s near Lake Superior. Temps are only expected to be a few degrees warmer across the interior where highs approach 70F. A low amplitude mid-level trof tracking across the Northern Plains on Wed approaches the Upper Great Lakes on Thu and shortwaves pivoting around the trough bring periodic rain chances. Shra associated with this feature could spread into western Upper MI late Wed night, then progress eastward on Thu. The forecast package continues to trend toward a later arrival of rain, especially across the east where rain chances don`t arrive until Thursday night (e.g. RGEM/NAM). Given the magnitude of antecedent dry air, this trend may continue but the warm/moist air mass eventually moves in bringing rain chances. There is fair agreement that Fri will be a drier day, but not necessarily dry everywhere all day. Almost daily shortwave passages suggest a return to a pattern similar to April 26 - May 4 when 7 of 9 days had measurable rainfall at WFO MQT. Fcst reflects schc/chc of rain showers over the weekend and while widespread or soaking rain is not expected, there will be rain chances in the area. Warmer night time lows and damp conditions suggests bug spray season has arrived. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 120 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 VFR ceilings will prevail at all TAF sites in this forecast period. Hazy skies due to upstream Canadian wildfires will likely persist though per HRRR Vertically Integrated Smoke product, but surface visibility restrictions aren`t expected at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 443 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 Sfc high pressure over Hudson Bay extends ridging south across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley today. Ridging drifts east across the Upper Great Lakes thru Wed. As a result, expect winds mostly under 20kt, except for NE winds gusting up to 25kt over far western Lake Superior on Wednesday. Winds will continue to be mostly under 20kt Thu/Fri as a broad trough tracks over the region, bringing warmer temperatures and stable conditions to Lake Superior. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JTP LONG TERM...EK/Rolfson AVIATION...JTP MARINE...EK/JTP