928
FXUS61 KOKX 191818
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
218 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Northeast will gradually strengthen
and build south to the Mid Atlantic states into Monday. The
high will then gradually slide east through midweek. A cold
front approaches from the west Wednesday night and moves across
Thursday into Thursday night. Brief weak high pressure returns
towards the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The forecast is mainly on track. There`s still enough low-
level moisture coupled with daytime heating to allow clouds to
reform across much of the area this afternoon. Some late day
clearing is still anticipated, more so over the western zones.
Ridging otherwise builds in both aloft and at the surface
through tonight, keep the area under a NE-E flow outside of a
few local sea breezes.

Highs today look to be touch warmer than Saturday`s, ranging
from the lower to mid 60s across eastern LI/SE CT and the south
shore of LI, to the lower and mid 70s for NYC and points north
and west. This is very close to normal.

For tonight, low clouds may once again reestablish themselves,
especially for coastal locations east of NYC. Some drizzle may
be possible out on the twin forks of LI. Lows will be in the
50s, which is again close to normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Early morning low clouds on Monday, especially areas east of
NYC, will gradually lift and dissipate by early afternoon. A
high amplitude upper level ridge moves across the area Monday
into Tuesday, with surface high pressure along the coast
gradually sliding east out into the Atlantic. This will be a dry
period along with steady climb in temperatures. Highs across
the interior will go from the mid ad upper 70s Monday, to the
lower and mid 80s on Tuesday. Coastal locations will rise into
the lower and mid 70s during this time, except cooler along the
immediate south of LI. Lows will be on the climb as well with
some locations only getting as low as the lower 60s Tuesday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*Key Points*

 ** Summerlike temperatures away from the coast Wed and
possibly Thu.

** A cold front approaches Wed Night and crosses the area Thu
into Thu Night, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Upper ridging nosing into the region from the southern US will
become suppressed late in the week in response to a closed upper
low drifting northeast across southern Ontario/Quebec. Still
quite a bit of model spread on the evolution of this upper low
between more progressive GEFS and slower ECE/GEPS, which
manifests in timing and progressiveness differences in the
resultant surface low, and cold front pushing towards the region
Wed Night into Thu, and through Thu/Thu Night.

Before then, good agreement in high pressure along the coast
Monday, sinking SE of the region and developing a return deep SW
flow into the region midweek. A shearing shortwave tracks east
into northern New England Tuesday Night, with weak surface wave
along warm front, but appears this disturbance should remain
well north of the region.

Otherwise, summerlike temps away from the coast Wed, and
potentially Thu (about 10 to 15 degrees above normal). NBM
distribution has trended slightly higher than 24 hrs ago, while
bias corrected NBM has sunk to near near the 25th percentile.
Based on synoptic setup, and 850mb temps 16-17c (a slight upward
trend), have continued to utilize the warmer NBM 50th
percentile (highs in the mid to upper 80s) for NE NJ and areas
to the NW for Wed. NBM 75th percentile has temps in the lower
90s in this area, which is plausible with deep mixing and more
of a SW flow. Meanwhile, S/SW flow off mid 50 degree waters will
likely keep temps in 70s along the south coast, but still
slightly above seasonable. Similar temp distribution possible on
Thu if slower progression of cold front (ECE/GEPS)
materializes, otherwise a GEFS solution would likely hold temps
in the lower to mid 80s for NYC/NE NJ and interior, with 70s
coast.

Shower/tstm potential exists ahead/along pre-frontal trough and
cold front, but coverage/intensity will be dependent with
aforementioned upper low and frontal timing differences. A a
slight chance for Wed aft/eve west of Hudson, with better chance
Thu aft/eve. CSU MLP marginal severe storm threat for areas
west of the Hudson River Wed eve, and marginal for much of the
region (away from marine influence) and sliver of slight from
Mid-Atlantic into NE NJ looks reasonable based on synoptic and
thermodynamic setup.

Model consensus signals drying conditions on Friday in wake of
initial cold front, although secondary cold front/surface
troughing likely lingers. Cooler temps than Wed/Thu, but still
could be several degrees above normal (70s to lower 80s) with
lagging weak caa.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak surface high pressure remains over the area through
Monday.

VFR through at least midnight. MVFR cigs mainly during the morning
push hours, then VFR by noontime Monday.

Sea breezes moving through 20-22z on average. Winds otherwise NE
near 10kt this afternoon, diminishing tonight. Sea breezes return
late Monday morning, shifting winds SE-S near 10 kt.

  NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...


OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR. Chc S-SW gusts around 20kt both afternoons.

Thursday: VFR in the morning, then a chance of afternoon and evening
MVFR with showers and thunderstorms. Chc SW gusts around 20kt.

Friday: VFR. Chc NW gusts around 20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions anticipated across all waters through
the middle of next week. The exception will be the potential for
marginal southerly SCA gusts and ocean seas in and around the
entrance to NY Harbor with coastal jet formation Wed aft/eve,
and potentially Thu aft/eve dependent on cold frontal timing.
Wind/wave conditions likely relax on Friday in wake of the cold
front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the upcoming week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MET/NV/DW
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW