431
FXUS65 KPUB 130453
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1053 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some stronger storms along the spine of the Sangre De Cristos
  today; dry most other regions.

- Warmer tomorrow, more storms in mtns with plains nearly dry.

- Daily afternoon and evening shower and storms are expected
  through the long term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Currently, early this afternoon a few storms were ongoing across the
high country, while the larger valleys and plains were clear. Temps
were relatively cool for this time of the year with 70s across the
plains and 50s and 60s mtns.

Rest of Today...

Main concern is the greater spine of the Sangre De Cristo mtns. This
area will see the best instability today. This instability, along
with about 30 knts of shear, should allow for a few strong storms
later this afternoon into the early evening as they move down and
generally parallel to the Sangre De Cristo mtns in the NW`rly flow
aloft. One or two of the storms could be severe as sufficient shear
and instability is in place for rotating storms.

It is not out of the question to get a rogue storm over the plains,
but given the steering flow aloft, the brunt of the activity should
remain over the mtns/plains interface.

For tonight, any activity should end relatively quickly after the
insolation goes away.

Tomorrow...

Storms will be a bit more in coverage over all of the higher terrain
as better moisture moves into the mtns, however the plains will
remain dry an NNW`rly flow at steering level remains over the
region. Temps tomorrow , over the plains will warm up quite a bit as
compared to today, and expect temps to average about 10F warmer.
Temps in the valleys and mtns should be similar to today.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Overall, not much variation in the weather pattern across the region
through the extended period, though there will be a few slight
differences, especially across the eastern plains. There will be a
daily shot of afternoon and evening convection, with the greatest
probabilities across the higher terrain. Temperatures across the
high valleys are forecast to hover around seasonal normals each day.
Multiple upper disturbances sweeping across the Rocky Mt region will
begin to affect the eastern plains beginning on Wednesday.

Monday and Tuesday...The center of the upper high remains just off
the CA coast, while the west-northwest flow aloft strengthens across
the northern US and opens the door for northern disturbances to drop
down across Colorado. Southern surface winds across the plains will
help boost temps to slightly above normal, with highs in the upper
80s to mid 90s for the plains, and the high valleys remaining in the
80s both days. Shower and thunderstorm probabilities increase to
likely across the higher terrain both days, with scattered activity
crossing the I-25 Corridor during the evening.

Wednesday through Friday...Models indicate that a cold front pushes
south some time on Wed, increasing llvl moisture and paving the way
for at least some isolated convection each day across the plains
along with maximum temps right at or slightly below seasonal
normals. Convection chances across the mts and high valleys will
continue to be likely. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1049 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

For KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected for the next 24
hours. Winds will be mainly light for tonight and tomorrow, becoming
easterly through Sunday afternoon. Showers and storms are not
expected tomorrow.

For KALS..VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. There
is a a 30% chance for showers and storms on Sunday afternoon, mainly
from 22Z to 01Z. Main risks will be gusty and erratic outflow winds,
small hail, and frequent lightning. Mid-level clouds look to stick
around for a bit in the evening, clearing through the rest of the
overnight hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...EHR