Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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471 FXUS62 KTBW 121129 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 729 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Weak high pressure over the region today for warm but mainly dry conditions. A progressive pattern for next week as a series of upper troughs move through the southern jet stream but then lift NE through the Deep South. This will produce deepening S-SW low to mid level flow increasing mean layer moisture over the local area producing daily rain chances through the week and into next weekend. The surface storm systems are expected to remain well N of the FL Peninsula but models indicate some modest upper support for possibly active diurnal rain chances daily. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 721 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period as high pressure remains in control across the region. Surface winds will be out of the NNE this morning and shift onshore at coastal sites this afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland with wind speeds around 5-10 kts throughout the day. && .MARINE... Weak high pressure in the region today for fairly light winds and seas. A series of frontal systems is expected to move through the Northern Gulf region producing increased south-southwesterly flow Tuesday through the week along with daytime rain chances. && .FIRE WEATHER... Weak high pressure in the region will keep warm and dry conditions in place today into Monday with minimum RH values critically low, but light wind speeds should preclude red flag conditions. Humidity values increase on southerly flow with increasing rain chances Tuesday through mid week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 75 92 78 / 10 0 30 20 FMY 93 73 94 76 / 10 0 30 10 GIF 91 71 94 73 / 10 10 40 20 SRQ 92 72 93 76 / 0 0 20 20 BKV 91 67 94 70 / 10 10 40 30 SPG 90 77 90 79 / 10 0 20 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 8 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 7 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...RJD AVIATION...Giarratana DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hubbard