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000
FXUS65 KVEF 100857
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
157 AM PDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer temperatures will build in today and tomorrow
with afternoon highs climbing several degrees above normal. Warm
weather will continue Friday with gusty winds returning as a
weather system approaches for the weekend. Light showers favoring
the higher terrain are possible Saturday with temperatures
dropping well below normal Sunday into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Friday.

Warming temperatures will be the main headline over the next
couple days as a broad ridge builds across the West. We`re still
expecting our first 80 degree day officially in Las Vegas, with
around a 65 percent chance of reaching that value for the first
time in 2024. Temperatures will continue to climb Thursday, rising
several degrees above seasonal normal. With temperatures in the
80s in Las Vegas, temps will climb well into the 90s across our
lower elevations near Laughlin, Needles, and Lake Havasu, as well
as parts of Death Valley. It`s been a cool spring thus far, so
stay extra hydrated in the warm conditions as we gradually
acclimatize to the warmer weather.

Temperatures will peak Friday as surface winds begin to increase
ahead of an incoming Pacific trough. Las Vegas stands a ~25
percent chance of reaching 90 on Friday, with a similar percentage
chance for triple digits in Death Valley. Gusty southerly winds
will also be on the increase, and may warrant wind headlines -
though the incoming trough has been trending slower to approach
and may keep the stronger winds at bay until Saturday.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday.

A low pressure system off the central California coast early
Saturday will make its way inland and across our area through the
weekend. This will result in breezy to windy conditions across the
area Saturday and Sunday with an increasing chance for rain and
mountain snow, and cooling temperatures.

Models are still trying to lock in on a consensus solution regarding
the timing, track, and strength of the system but uncertainty in
details continue to run high. Timing, in general, has slowed down
for each ensemble system meaning the system is forecast to linger
over the Southwest all weekend. Each ensemble system is beginning to
display a preference for a particular solution based on the
percentage of members in agreement with the preferred solution. By
the end of the weekend, a majority of ensemble members within each
ensemble system have a strong closed low either west of our CWA or
directly over it. A decent number of GEFS ensemble members continue
to hang on to a more progressive system however, this solution is
falling out of favor. Thus, forecast confidence is high regarding
the likelihood of a low pressure system impacting weather over the
Southwest this weekend but then confidence fades when considering
detailed impacts.

Our fresh off the press forecast for the extended period has
temperatures cooling off for Saturday but remaining above normal.
More pronounced cooling holds off until Sunday and Monday.
Widespread windy conditions are forecast on Saturday with gusts
bordering on advisory level in most areas. Winds settle down but
remain breezy to locally windy on Sunday if this forecast holds
true. Precipitation doesn`t appear to be a big deal although
coverage has increased over the previous forecast including a slight
chance of showers in Las Vegas late Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Diurnal wind patterns with wind speeds
under 8KT are expected today through Thursday morning. Variable winds
this morning will become northeast or east-northeast late morning
and early afternoon, favoring 040-050 in the late morning then
becoming 060-070 in the afternoon...but speeds remaining under 8KT
through the period. Typical light overnight southwest winds return
this evening. No significant clouds or weather expected through the
period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Breezy north are expected again today down the Colorado
River Valley, though winds will not be as strong as they were
yesterday. Expected north winds to increase at KEED and KIFP with
gusts to 20-25KT this morning through the afternoon with the
strongest winds around KIFP. Winds will diminish around sunset with
gusts ending and wind speeds likely dropping back below 10KT.
Otherwise, expect light and diurnal wind patterns across the region
today with no significant weather or clouds expected through the
period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Outler
LONG TERM...Salmen
AVIATION...Nickerson

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