Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 300607 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1207 AM MDT Tue May 30 2017

Remnant -SHRA and mid level clouds over eastern NM will linger
overnight then dissipate after sunrise. Moist southerly flow up the
Pecos Valley aft 10Z may support MVFR low cigs near 030 at KROW.
Another crop of -SHRA/TSRA will develop aft 20Z over the central and
western high terrain then drift east on gusty outflow winds. Deeper
moisture over the area Tuesday will make direct hits from storms more
impactful with MVFR vsbys and cigs possible, especially over eastern
NM. -SHRA/TSRA will linger overnight with widespread mid level cloud



.PREV DISCUSSION...250 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017...
Atmospheric moisture will continue to increase over the state
through Wednesday, resulting in increasing chances for showers and
storms. Storms will be moving slowly on Tuesday and Wednesday, so
rain amounts will likely increase. Daytime temperatures will trend
down through mid week and generally be below normal, especially
across the Southeast Plains on Wednesday where highs are forecast to
be 15 to 20 degrees below normal thanks to clouds and rain cooling.
A warming trend will begin Thursday and continue into Saturday, with
temperatures reaching back to near normal areawide. Drying from the
west on Thursday and Friday will limit chances for storms to the
northeast and far southeast, but chances for storms will trend back
up and spread west to around the Central Mountain Chain over the
weekend thanks to a backdoor front.


PWATs are trending up, with the 12z KABQ upper air sounding showing
0.53" compared to yesterday`s 0.36". 24hr surface dewpoint change
values are an average +5 degrees across central and eastern New
Mexico, reflecting increasing moisture over the area. This increase
in moisture combined with daytime heating has resulted in a more
robust round of storms this afternoon, with a few strong storms
possible. A relatively dry lower boundary layer, weaker jet dynamics
and limited surface based instability are resulting in garden
variety high-based storms with a few stronger cells capable of
producing hail up to one inch in diameter and wind gusts approaching
60 mph. One or two pulse-type severe storms are not out of the
question this afternoon and early evening.

Atmospheric moisture will continue to trend up through Wednesday,
although winds aloft will be on the downtrend resulting in less shear
and slower storm motion. This means any severe threat should trend
down while the threat for locally heavy rainfall trends up. The 12z
NAM continues to be much more bullish with the QPF for Wednesday
compared to the GFS, with +1" amounts possible. Higher QPF amounts
makes more sense given very slow storm motion and a well above normal
PWAT atmosphere. The 12z NAM and GFS continue to show the PWAT at
KABQ ramping up to near 0.90" on Wednesday, which would beat the
daily record value of 0.83". Wednesday still looks like the coolest
day this forecast cycle, with highs up to 20 degrees below normal
across the Southeast Plains.

A drying/warming trend is forecast to begin Thursday, but differences
between the 12z GFS and ECMWF with the approaching upper level trough
is leading to lower Forecaster confidence in the timing and magnitude
of that trend. It does appear that chances for storms will be
confined to the Eastern Plains and Northern Mountains by Friday and
then back westward to the Central Mountain Chain over the weekend
thanks to a backdoor front.



Showers and thunderstorms erupted late this morning over the high
terrain and continue to increase in coverage this afternoon. Storms
will continue to move toward the east or southeast through the
evening and may grow into a cluster across NE and EC NM. Thus,
several areas should see wetting rains east of the central mountain
chain. Some storms will contain heavy rain and small hail as well as
gusty winds. Meanwhile, from the Rio Grande Valley westward, a mix
of wet and dry storms remain the rule and gusty winds will continue
to be the main threat with these storms.

Though the moisture return will get disrupted by the storms this
evening, once storms dissipate, the return flow will make another
appearance, and moisture values will continue to increase.  This
will set the stage for another active day Tuesday, though storms
should be mostly of the wet variety, except near the Four Corners.
Storms should form along the high terrain and shift toward the east
or northeast. A weak disturbance aloft propagating across southern
NM should help generate storms across the plains, particularly the
southeast plains, Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

Wednesday should be the most active day of the week as the
aforementioned disturbance remains over the southeast NM plains and
moisture continues to be drawn in from the Gulf. Widespread storms
with wetting rains are expected. Storm motion will change more
drastically on Wednesday afternoon. Storms should move toward the
north or northwest for most areas, though slowly. By Thursday, the
disturbance will shift eastward and drier air will begin to filter
into at least western NM. This will shift the focus for convection
across the east. By Friday, drier air will continue to push in from
west to east, limiting precipitation chances further. Though small
chances will persist east of the central mountain chain.

Temperatures will remain below normal throughout much of the week,
with the coolest day being Wednesday thanks to the widespread cloud
cover and precip. Temps will warm back up Thursday and continue on
Friday. Most areas on Friday will be with a degree or two of normal.

Another moist back door front, or perhaps two, will arrive over the
weekend, which may increase storm chances again, at least for areas
along and east of the central mountain chain.

Only ventilation concerns are on Tuesday and Wednesday where spotty
poor vent rates exists across portions of north central and central





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