Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 270932
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE LOW CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
CROP UP IN VICINITY OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INVADING THE
NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE WILL AID IN THOSE LOW RAIN
CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCES NEARING NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO WILL EXPAND SHOWER CHANCES SOME MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT WINDIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED SNOW PACK EATING WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
WITH US FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS...IF NOT LONGER. WHILE
CERTAINLY PLEASANT FOR THE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OF MOST SENTIENT
LIFE HERE IN THE STATE...IT CERTAINLY CONTINUES TO DRAW DOWN THE
EARLIER POSITIVE PRECIPITATION SURPLUSES THAT GRACED THE MAJORITY
OF THE STATE. IN FACT AFTN TEMPS SAT MAY REACH RECORD TERRITORY AT
SOME SPOTS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE. SOME
BREEZINESS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TODAY AND SAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NW AND N CENTRAL NM...THE HIGHEST TERRAIN RIDGES AND ALSO SOME
SPOTS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. BACK DOOR FRONT COMING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE HALF OF NM SUN WILL TEMPER THIS WARM UP
SOME AND...IN AND NEAR THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS...PROVIDE LOW CHANCES
OF LOW QPF PRECIP...THOUGH TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
SOME POST FRONTAL GUSTY WINDS POSS ACROSS THE E PLAINS FOR A FEW
HOURS AS WELL.

FOR EARLY THIS NEXT WORK WEEK A DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHING AND
MOVING ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NM AND ANOTHER CLIPPING N
CENTRAL OR NE NM MAY COMBINE EFFORTS TO PRODUCE A FEW GENERALLY
LOW QPF SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT THE GFS STILL SHOWS NOTICEABLY
MORE COVERAGE THAN MOST OTHER MODELS. THEREAFTER THE PATTERN
INDICATES A CHANGE BACK TO A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY RATHER
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...STILL MOSTLY DRY WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES
THE SW U.S. THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
VARY FROM 5 TO 18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  IT
WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD HAINES INDICES FROM 5 TO 6. LOWER ELEVATION
HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY CRATER BELOW 15 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS BEHIND WEAK
BACK DOOR COOL FRONTS ACROSS NORTHEAST AREAS TODAY AND SUNDAY.
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIR TO POOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK TROUGH IN NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIT THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
TODAY. IT COULD TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS THIS AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS...THESE SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. BETTER COVERAGE
OF POTENTIALLY MORE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK AND
DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING SLOWLY FROM THE WEST WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WETTING FOOTPRINTS WILL
PROBABLY BE PRETTY SMALL...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS DUE TO
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTRODUCED BY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COMING
WEEK...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE COLORADO BOARDER DAILY AROUND MID WEEK DUE TO A FEW WEAK TROUGHS
CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES NORTH OF NM. THESE PERTURBATIONS WILL
STRENGTHEN THE FLOW ALOFT ENOUGH FOR SURFACE WINDS OVER NM TO BECOME
GRADUALLY GUSTIER EACH DAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. HUMIDITIES WILL
ALSO TREND DOWNWARD DAILY IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHTS UPPER
TROUGH. WIDESPREAD CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY MID WEEK...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IF WINDS CAN GET STRONG ENOUGH AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

IN ADDITION...DECENT SPRINGTIME ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WILL LEAD TO GOOD
TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

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&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SRN CALIFORNIA
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD TOWARD NM LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NLY FLOW
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO NWLY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  73  35  77  36 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  69  27  71  30 /   0   0   0   5
CUBA............................  69  32  72  35 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  74  25  76  28 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  68  30  71  33 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  74  27  76  29 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  68  31  71  34 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  78  41  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  63  26  66  29 /   0   5   0   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  66  43  70  45 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  67  39  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  66  28  69  30 /   5   5   0   5
RED RIVER.......................  56  26  59  29 /   5   5   0   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  60  24  63  27 /   5   5   0   5
TAOS............................  67  30  71  32 /   0   5   0   5
MORA............................  67  37  70  38 /   0   5   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  73  40  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  68  41  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  71  38  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  71  43  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  74  44  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  75  40  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  75  42  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  78  37  81  42 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  76  43  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  78  44  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  69  44  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  73  41  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  71  32  74  34 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  69  39  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  70  40  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  73  42  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  70  44  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  69  34  74  40 /   0   5   0   5
RATON...........................  72  34  77  38 /   0   5   0   5
SPRINGER........................  71  36  76  37 /   0   5   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  70  37  75  40 /   0   5   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  73  44  80  45 /   0   5   0   5
ROY.............................  71  39  77  41 /   0   5   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  74  46  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  74  44  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  77  43  84  46 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  76  44  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  76  43  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  78  45  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  82  45  87  46 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  76  45  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  70  46  74  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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