Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 041123 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
523 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A FEW -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF
NE NM THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE. COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL
OVERALL HOWEVER. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY TAF WOULD BE AFFECTED...THOUGH
KSAF OR KLVS WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...325 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONFINED TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN FROM THE SOUTH
ON THURSDAY. AS THE MOISTURE PLUME DEEPENS FRIDAY...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO MOST
AREAS FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER MAY SHIFT BACK OVER NEW MEXICO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION HAS WANED IN THE NORTHEAST...ALONG WITH ISOLD LTG OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS DUE TO SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH COLORADO. THE DRY
SLOT REMAINS SOMEWHAT INTACT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NM ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE
STATE...AND ANOTHER FETCH PER WATER VAPOR APPEARS TO CONTAIN A SHORT
WAVE WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT NM IN THE NEAR TERM. DEW POINTS
HAVE RECOVERED IN THE WEST AT THIS TIME...BUT ARE STILL FORECAST TO
DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND CENTRAL. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
NOT GREAT...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT SETUP...HAVE INCLUDED MORE
WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THIS
EVENING THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM OVERALL WEDNESDAY...AND ARE EVEN A BIT MORE
ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN EASTWARD. THEREFORE
WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY IN OVER THE WEST...WHILE THURSDAY
COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE EAST. OTHERWISE EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT
CONVECTION FOR MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN MID WEEK.

HIGHS COOL DOWN A BIT MORE FRIDAY AS THE ANTICIPATED MOISTURE RETURN
BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE WEST AND NORTH. THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER RELOCATES TO OUR EAST IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST...BUT THIS PATTERN DOESN/T LAST TOO LONG. BY
NEST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD THE HIGH CENTER
NORTHWESTWARD AND INTO NEW MEXICO/COLORADO...WHICH WOULD DIMINISH
MOISTURE OVERALL AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON IN
TERMS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CERTAINLY...LESS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST. HI-RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A FEW STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND PERHAPS THE
NORTHERN MTNS OR NE PLAINS...BUT SHOULD BE VERY QUIET OVERALL.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD LOWER A BIT MORE TODAY...BUT STILL HEDGED ON THE
HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO EVAPOTRANSPIRATION EFFECTS. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL IN TO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S AS TEMPS RISE
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR ALL AREAS. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
WILL BE A BIT LOWER TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL GOOD MOST
AREAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH HUMIDITIES EDGING
SLIGHTLY LOWER AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE AND DEWPOINTS MIX
OUT. BY THURSDAY...EASTERN AREAS WILL BE AS MUCH AS A DOZEN DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER HIGH THAT WILL BE WOBBLING OVER NM THROUGH MID WEEK WILL
START TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE CALI COAST. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND  MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AS A
RESULT. HUMIDITIES AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NM
ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO TREND DOWNWARD.

HAINES VALUES OF 5 WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST TODAY...WITH 5
HAINES DOMINANT ON WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD 6 HAINES WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY AND HAINES VALUES OF 5 WILL EVEN PERSIST ON FRIDAY.

GOOD TO VERY GOOD VENTILATION EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY...THOUGH POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE AREA ON WED AND THURS WILL SEE POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION WHILE
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 WILL SEE GOOD OR BETTER VENT RATES.
VENTILATION IMPROVES AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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