Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 011219
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
419 AM AKDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER NW CANADA WILL REGRESS WEST OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA BY THU AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MERGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND REMAIN COOL INTO NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...
A 1012 MB LOW 200 NM WEST OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO 60 NM EAST OF
BARROW BY 4PM WED...TO 100 NM NORTHEAST OF BARTER ISLAND BY 4AM
THU...AND TO 200 NM NORTHEAST OF BARTER ISLAND BY 4PM THU. A WARM
FRONT STRETCHING SE FROM THE LOW TO AMBLER WILL MOVE EAST TO
TANANA BY 4PM WED AND EAST OF THE ALCAN BORDER LATE WED. WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH AND WEST OF THIS FRONT
ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 KT.

A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SW FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO NUIQSUT TO
THE BERING STRAIT BY 4PM WED... TO BARTER ISLAND TO HUSLIA TO THE
YUKON DELTA TO GAMBELL BY 4AM THU...TO OLD CROW TO INDIAN MOUNTAIN
TO HOOPER BAY BY 4PM THU.. AND THEN DRIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING
THU NIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WITH
850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -8C OR COLDER. WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW
WITH THE FRONT IN NW ALASKA AND OVER THE NORTH SLOPE WITH 1-4
INCHES IN THE BROOKS RANGE. SCATTERED/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. WILL SEE NW WINDS 15-25 KT
WITH THE FRONT ALONG THE COASTS WITH THE FRONT DIMINISHING TO N-NE
15 KT INLAND. WILL SEE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW IN NW ALASKA THU-FRI DUE
TO THE VERY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE WARMER WATER. FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THU BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

A STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE NE GULF OF ALASKA FRI WILL SPREAD
SNOW TO THE SE INTERIOR FRI AND ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR SAT.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT FRI-SAT COULD SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS
FEATURE IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH 6-8 INCHES IN THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 4AM THU...THEREAFTER SEE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE LOW
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE NEW 06Z GFS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
NAM AND ECMF MODELS ON THE LOCATION OF THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW OUT
TO 4AM FRI. WILL GO WITH THE 06Z GFS SOLUTION.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS DROPPING AS SMALL BODIES OF WATER START TO FREEZE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.

&&

$$

JB OCT 14


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