Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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250
FXAK69 PAFG 301128
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
328 AM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Quiet, warm, and dry weather will continue to highlight the
forecast through Tuesday for most of Northern Alaska as an upper
level ridge resides overhead. The exception will be along the
Alaska Range, Upper Tanana and Kuskokwim Valleys where there will
be isolated thunderstorms and showers this afternoon and evening.
After Tuesday, a transition from warm and dry weather to a cooler
and showery weather regime is expected through the rest of the
week into next weekend. Good agreement amongst the 30/00z models
through the upcoming week regarding the overall large scale
pattern with some subtle differences in the timing and position of
individual features towards the latter half of the week.

The dominant upper level ridge centered over the Chukchi Sea at
575 dam will continue to move northwest and over the Chukotsk
Peninsula Monday evening and into Siberia by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile, broad low pressure centered over the Central Aleutians
will remain quasi-stationary while several shortwaves east then
north toward the Gulf of Alaska coast through late Wednesday. By
early Thursday, the aforementioned low and associated upper level
trough will stretch from the Central Aleutians to the Gulf of
Alaska. A 530 dam upper low originating from 80N will drop south
towards the Arctic Coast and with its 522 dam center being 250
miles northeast from Prudhoe Bay by late Wednesday with an
associated trough lying over Eastern Alaska.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range: A 1035 mb surface high over Banks
Island will continue to move east allowing the pressure gradient
over the Beaufort Sea coast to relax. Easterly flow 20 to 30 mph
with occasional gusts to 40 mph late last evening will diminish
through this morning to around 20 mph. A 1025 mb over Wrangel
Island will move southeast and over the Chukchi Sea by Wednesday
morning. Northeast to east flow will strengthen Tuesday into
Wednesday along the Western Arctic Coast and Western Brooks Range
as the pressure gradient tightens the aforementioned high moves
south. Visible satellite imagery from 05Z to 0830z show that area
of low stratus offshore of the Arctic Coast has moved onshore from
Nuiqsut east to Barter Island and will likely stick around through
late afternoon/early evening when ceiling are expected to lift and
scatter out. Previously mentioned arctic upper low will bring
cooler temperatures and a chance at rain or snow for the middle
of the week to the North Slope.

West Coast and Western Interior: Fair, mild, and dry weather is
expected for the next several days. Temperatures will remain in
the mid 60s to mid 70s. Gusty winds will persist over southwest
Alaska and Alaska range today. Isolated thunderstorms expected
over the Kuskokwim Valley this afternoon and evening.

Eastern and Central Interior: Mild temperatures expected over the
area through mid week before some cooling as an upper level trough
moves over the area. Upper level shortwave over the Southeast will
move west along the Alaska Range and over Kuskokwim valley through
Monday evening. This will help spark off some showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the Upper Tanana Valley and Alaska Range Monday
afternoon and evening. Chances for showers will increase later
this week as a thermal trough becomes reestablished north of the
Alaska Range and over the southern Interior.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Winds and temperatures look to remain near red
flag conditions in the Upper Kuskokwim Valley today, however
temperatures will be several degrees cooler. Otherwise continued
warm and dry trend will continue as advertised into early this
week. The coverage area for isolated thunderstorms expands this
afternoon and evening from the Upper Tanana Valley to the Alaska
Range and Upper Kuskokwim Valley.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...No hydrologic issues are expected. Warmer conditions
will allow for increase snowmelt and resulting runoff but no
concerns for significant river rises anticipated.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

LTH MAY 16



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