Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 041049
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
149 AM AKST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOT ONLY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
BUT WELL INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE AS WELL. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECMWF AND NAM ALL INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z ANALYSIS
AND CONTINUE WITH MINIMAL RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES.

ALOFT AT 500HPA...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ALASKA HAS BEEN
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 250
NM NORTH OF PASC AND EXTENDS SOUTH THROUGH POINT THOMPSON TO PABT
TO PAMC. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TO BE
LOCATED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. ONGOING BLIZZARD
ON THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY MID DAY OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH SLOPE AS WINDS DIMINISH.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THE EAST TODAY AND WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
WEST COAST THURSDAY MORNING AND OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY
EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND WILL
BE CENTERED ALONG A PABT TO PANN LINE FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WITH
CONTINUED WESTERLY MOIST FLOW. GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED AS THESE TWO SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE INTERIOR.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE PLOWS ONTO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY WITH
SNOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CAPES FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO SHORT WAVES WITH BLOWING SNOW
LIKELY OVER THE WEST COAST AND OVER SUMMITS IN THE INTERIOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST 925 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 KTS HOWEVER PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION ARE NOT AS STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE RECENT FRONT
THAT BROUGHT 50 MPH WIND GUSTS TO THE FAIRBANKS AREA. WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FALL OVER SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
SNOW TOTALS ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT FAVOR WESTERLY FLOW
UPSLOPE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ206.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC MAR 15


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