Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 301032
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
232 AM AKDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA CONTINUES TO QUIET DOWN AFTER
SEVERAL DAYS WITH AN UNUSUALLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR LATE AUGUST.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH AN END TO THE WINTRY WEATHER AND A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ALL MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THEN DIVERGE SLIGHTLY
AFTER THAT. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDING FROM THE
ARCTIC COAST TO THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. A LINGERING TROUGH ALOFT DRAPED FROM THE ARCTIC COAST TO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES BELOW 0C WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS BIG PATTERN CHANGE IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE BERING SEA...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
PROGRESSING EAST TO INTERIOR ALASKA BY THURSDAY. THEREFORE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IS IN STORE.

AT THE SURFACE...A 999 MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH TO THE GULF OF ALASKA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL PRODUCE NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KT AND LOCALLY HIGHER
ON THE WEST COAST FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
BERING SEA TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM THE NORTH AS
THE LOW MOVES SOUTH. THUS...HIGH SURF ISSUES FOR THE SHISHMAREF
AREA WILL END BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SUNDAY
NIGHT OVER NORTHWEST CANADA AND THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COMBINED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS ALASKA...WILL INCREASE
NORTHWEST WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC.

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
BERING SEA RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE THE LOW
DEVELOPING IN NORTHWEST CANADA WILL PUSH A SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...PRODUCING SOME RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. AS SKIES
CLEAR OVER THE INTERIOR AND COOL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ALOFT...SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH A HARD FROST ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. DEPENDING ON HOW MANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FORM TONIGHT A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR THE FAIRBANKS AREA.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GRADUALLY FALL IN THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS CONTINUES TO REGULATE
FLOW ON THE CHENA RIVER INTO FAIRBANKS DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN FROM
A FEW DAYS AGO. THEY ANTICIPATE ENDING OPERATIONS LATER TODAY AS
THE WATER LEVEL ON THE CHENA RIVER FALLS BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

EWP AUG 15



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