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000
FXAK67 PAJK 182328
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
328 PM AKDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND STILL SHOWING UP IN THE CLOUD PATTERN. OTHERWISE
ACROSS THE GULF IS THE SOUTHERN ARC OF A CLOSED LOW FLOW PATTERN.
THE REMAINS OF A FRONT AND TRAILING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THESE REMAINS ARE SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. OVER THE MAIN PORTION OF THE GULF ARE THE
STRATO CUMULUS SHOWERS INITIALLY BEING FED INTO THE WESTERN GULF
BY THE COLD AIR SPILLING OUT OF THE BRISTOL BAY REGION.

 A VORTICITY LOBE ALOFT IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE ENHANCING
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST. THIS PLUS THE COLD AIR POOL MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SPARK SOME SLEET IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

 THERE IS SOME LOCALLY WINDY/GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING... FOR THE CROSS SOUND AREA AND THE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL
REGIONS. I EXPECT THOSE TO BE DIMINISHING SOME THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...DRY THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. FROSTY MORNINGS IN
NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S STARTING NEXT TUESDAY.

 THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE DIMINISHING
SHOWERS AND CLEARING SKIES, AS A 1043-MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PANHANDLE
SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY AND WESTERLY
DIRECTIONS. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER BUT COOLER CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS INTO THE PANHANDLE. WITH CLEARING SKIES, EFFECTIVE
RADIATION COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S FROM NORTHEAST GULF INTO NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE.

 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE PANHANDLE ON MONDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS,
NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL BE UNDER THE
THREAT OF FROST ONCE AGAIN FOR BOTH NIGHTS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
MODERATING WITH TIME. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FROST SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE AREA.

 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN
THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE STARTING TUESDAY. THE WORK WEEK
SHOULD ALSO REMAIN DRY, WITH PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO EAST OF THE
COAST MOUNTAIN IN BRITISH COLUMBIA.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
PERIOD. UTILIZES GUIDANCE FROM ECMWF/WPC TO REFRESH THE FORECAST
PACKAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/RCL