Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 231724
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
124 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 111 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE
UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE FCST AREA. A WEAK SFC COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
COOL AND DRY WX WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LESS WIND THAN
YESTERDAY. ALSO TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES WARMER. SOME
CLOUDS ARE PERSISTING OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION...BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE M60S TO
NEAR 70F IN THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND
MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

WED...SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING
IN DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED NT-THU NT...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...WITH 00Z/23
GEFS INDICATING THE PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCH OR GREATER QPF/6
HOURS REACHING INTO THE 60 PERCENT RANGE OR HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT GIVEN THESE TRENDS IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO
INCREASE TOO MUCH IN CASE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TREND BACK SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE LOW/S TRACK AND PRECIP SHIELD. AT THE VERY
LEAST...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND WEST TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THURSDAY INTO EARLY THU NT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER FOR WED-THU NT...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. EXPECT MINS TO FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION. THU MAX TEMPS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER EXPANDS
NORTH...AND IF ANY RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. HAVE
GENERALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE COOLER MAV MOS/WARMER MET
MOS...WITH 65-70 EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 60-65 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE
RAINFALL...MAX TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COOLER...PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 60S OR EVEN COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIDGING BUILDS EAST AND WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES AS
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SOME TIME AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA BUILDING IN. LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME STEADY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
COULD SET UP THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE PREDICTED
POSITION OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...AROUND
70 TO LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S...SOME
UPPER 60S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING FROM THE NORTH IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SCT-BKN STRATOCU CLOUDS FOR KALB/KGFL.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS
FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KPSF/KPOU. WINDS ARE LIGHT AT
KPOU/KPSF...BUT WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY...ARE GUSTY
AROUND KALB/KGFL FROM VARIABLE DIRECTIONS. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
KTS FOR KALB/KGFL WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL SITES.

BY THE EVENING HOURS...THE LOSS OF HEATING WILL ALLOW ANY CLOUDS
TO DISSIPATE AND WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT/CALM. WITH CLEAR SKIES IN
PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT AT
KPSF/KGFL...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE. SOME
HIGH CIRRUS WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS
A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TREND TOWARD CALM LATE TONIGHT. ON WED...WINDS
WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
45-60 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH
WILL THEN RECOVER TO 95-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION AND SOME FOG EXPECTED. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 50-60
PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IF RAINFALL
OCCURS...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE...RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE BEEN
RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL






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