Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 260715
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
215 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SUNSHINE WILL
BE FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS. MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE EASTWARD ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN
BORDER WITH MORE SEASONABLE AIR RETURNING TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA.
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED BY LOCAL TERRAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES WHICH IS EVIDENT BY THE
STRENGTHEN OF THE GUSTS BEING REPORTED AT THE PITTSFIELD AIRPORT.
HAVE RE-ISSUED THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THESE
STRONGER WINDS. OTHERWISE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

TODAY...MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE IF...AND HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS ERODE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IT APPEARS THAT THE MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY/CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90...WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS EVEN TO THE SOUTH. THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THEN...AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN...AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS...WE EXPECT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
LOWER CLOUDS TO BEGIN ERODING FROM S TO N DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS...AND TRANSLATING NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS PROCESS COULD TAKE UNTIL SUNSET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. CLOSER TO
THE I-90 CORRIDOR...IT APPEARS THAT SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTH OF I-90...AFTER OCCASIONAL
MORNING CLOUDS...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREE TEMPS COULD
OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TNGT...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CLEARING IN ALL AREAS
SHOULD BE FRI EVENING...BEFORE LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLY BEGIN
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS I-90 TOWARD DAYBREAK SAT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN TONIGHT/FRI
AM GIVEN THE PROSPECTS FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS...MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
MOST AREAS.



&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/ECMWF/NAM) DURING THIS PERIOD
AS 500HPA RIDGE AND SFC HIGH LINGER ALONG THE EASTER SEABOARD SAT
INTO SAT NT.

WITH RIDGE FLATTING AT 500HPA DURING THIS PERIOD WK BACKDOOR CDFNT
WILL LINGER IN AND NR ST. LAWRENCE VLY SAT MRNG BFE RETREATING N
WITH A FEW MR CLOUDS AND ISOLD/SCT -SHRA N TIER...IN AN OTHERWISE
PC AND UNSEASONABLY MILD PERIOD.

SAT NT 500HPA SHORT WV SHEARS NE IN WSW FLOW...FLATTENING THE
500HPA RIDGE FURTHER. A MODEST SFC LOW ASSOC WITH THIS SHORT WV
MOVES FM OTTAWA VLY TO THE GASPE PENINSULA...AND DRAGS A CDFNT TO
E GRTLKS/ST LAWRENCE VLY SAT NIGHT...AND TO THE I95 CORRIDOR SUN
MRNG. OF THE MDLS THE NAM IS 3-6 HOURS FASTER W/THIS FEATURE BUT
OTHERWISE THE SCENARIO IS THE SAME.  THIS CDFNT FRONT IS LARGELY
AN ANNA TYPE DEAL...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING JUST AHEAD OF IT SAT
NT/AND SCT SHRA BEHIND IT.

BY MIDDAY SUNDAY A WK SECONDARY MOVES THROUGH AND BY EVNG MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS WELL S OF RGN FM S VA TO OFF CAPE COD WHERE IT
LINGERS SUN NT.  THESE FEATURES ARE WK AND MAIN IMPACTS SAT/SUN WILL
BE INCRG CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA. GENERAL MDL QPF ON THE ORDER OF 0.10
TO 0.40 WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNT N TIER...AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
FAR SE.

MON FAST WSW 500 FLOW COVERS THE EAST...WHILE A 1050 HPA PLUS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH FM THE PRAIRIES OF CANADA...SPILLING COLDER
AIR INTO THE N GRT PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME IT WILL RIDGE EAST NR
THE US/CAN BORDER AS SFC BAROCLINC ZONE HAS SHIFTED FURTHER S TO
THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THIS SFC LOW WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE MON.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE FCA MON AND MON NT AS SFC LOW
DEPARTS AND RIDGE BUILDS EAST.  WITH THE SFC HIGH CENTER SO FAR TO
OUR WEST THIS COLD AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVE SHALLOW COMPARED TO
WHAT TYPICALLY OCCURS HERE IN LATE DEC. COMBINED WITH WK SHORT WVS
AND WK WAA ALOFT SOME CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND INTO MON NT. LK EFFECT
RESPONSE WILL BE OFF THE TABLE WITH INSUF DIFFERENTIAL AND LLVL
FLOW N-NE. TEMPS WILL CONT TO TREND DOWN FINALLY RETURNING TO NR
NORMALS MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A LONG PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO NORMALLY COLD TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF A
MASSIVE 1050+ MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA. ANY NOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DOES OCCUR
WILL BE THE RESULT OF SOME LAKE EFFECT AND UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS
OVER THE REGION. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE FORECAST TO BE DRY
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS SHOULD
DOMINATE AT KALB...KGFL AND KALB MUCH OF THE DAY. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR KPSF
WHERE MVFR WILL OCCUR. ALSO SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE COULD
BE SOME MVFR CLOUDS...HAVE ADDRESSED THIS WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS IN
TAFS.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED BY LOCAL TERRAIN AT
KPSF. HAVE ADDRESSED THE STRINGER WINDS AND GUSTS WITH A TEMPO
GROUP. OTHERWISE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS. LATER TONIGHT...ANY WIND GUSTS WILL
DECREASE TO 20 KTS OR LESS. ON FRIDAY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE TAF SITES WITH GUSTS ONLY UP TO AROUND 15 KTS
EXPECTED...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 22Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON-MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE METTAWEE RIVER AT
GRANVILLE FOR MINOR FLOODING. THE LEVEL IS FALLING AND IT SHOULD
GO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BEFORE 8 AM. A FLOOD WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER AT UTICA HARBOR.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
RIVER LEVELS TO RECEDE.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN ARE EXPECTED FOR SAT NT
INTO SUN...WITH RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY REMAINING UNDER ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV







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