Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 272051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
451 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LAGGING BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

IN THE MEANTIME...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. THIS IS WHERE ANY REAL INSTABILITY EXISTS...WITH SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATING A POCKET OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN
THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A BAND OF CLOUD COVER MOVED IN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS TENDED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILDUP
DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 RANGE.
SO...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH
LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KT AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE SEVER THREAT CONTINUES TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...A ROGUE
SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SOUTH OF ALBANY EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE THE HIGHER CAPE EXISTS.

BY SUNSET...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN LATE. EXPECTING MIN
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...ANY ACTIVITY ALONG
THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AT
KGFL...AS FRONT IS JUST ABOUT THROUGH THERE...BUT WILL MENTION A
VCSH FOR KALB/KPSF FOR THIS AFTN...AND KPOU FOR LATE THIS
AFTN/THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWER LOOKS TO BE RATHER BRIEF...AND WILL
HAVE A MINIMAL EFFECT ON OVERALL VSBYS/CIGS. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT AROUND 5-10 KTS.

OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS...BKN CIGS OF 4-6 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE.
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT INTO A PORTION OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. DUE TO THE CLOUDS REMAINING
AROUND...IT MAY BE TOUGH FOR MUCH RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. IF IT CLEAR OUT FAST ENOUGH...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE AT
KGFL/KPSF...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. W-NW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...JUST SOME SCT DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING DAYTIME MIXING TO AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV






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