Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 280212
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1012 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hazy, hot and humid conditions will continue through the Memorial
Day weekend, as an upper level ridge builds across the region.
Mainly isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon and evening. Sunday and Monday may see the
greatest threat for more widespread showers and storms as multiple
frontal boundaries approach.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1000 PM...An isolated shower, no lightning per all available
lightning data, has developed just east of Albany heading into
Rensselaer County. This is along the boundary that was
progressing slowly east which is likely getting a little boost due
too the terrain for this shower to develop. We will keep slight
chance pops for the next couple of hours. Otherwise, a rather mild
and muggy night with some patchy fog/haze possible overnight. It
will be another very mild night more typical for late July than
late may. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s for much of the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level ridge axis is forecast to strengthen further,
which will tend to inhibit convection potential. Strong heating
and increasing low level moisture will still result in isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms initiating from late
morning into the afternoon hours. Again will only mention 20-30
pops with limited coverage across the area, with the somewhat
better chances north and south of I-90 and the Capital District,
where terrain may the main factor in generating convection. The
main story Saturday will be very warm temperatures likely
exceeding daily records at climate sites Albany, Poughkeepsie, and
Glens Falls. See climate section below for details. Most valley
locations are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. It
will feel muggy as well, with dewpoints well into the 60s.

Once again, any convection will dissipate shortly after dark
Saturday evening, as it will be diurnally driven under the
influence of the upper level ridge. It will be another mild night
with temps well above normal.

Similar conditions forecast for Sunday, as the upper level ridge
remains in place. However, there may be somewhat greater coverage
of convection due to the ridge axis eastward into New England by
late in the day. The low level focus for potentially more showers
and storms will be a side-door cold front moving southward along
the New England coast. This boundary is not expected to make
enough southward progress to infiltrate our area, but may provide
enough lift for scattered convection by the afternoon. Temps will
remain quite warm, but maybe a few degrees lower than Saturday due
to greater coverage of clouds/convection. Humid conditions will
persist with dewpoints remaining in the 60s.

Chances for showers and storms will actually continue Sunday
night into early Monday morning, as an open wave upper level
trough will approach from the Great Lakes region, providing some
larger scale ascent with the warm and humid air mass in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A we go into the day on Monday, consensus between the latest 12z
models does show moisture from the southwest Atlantic advecting
northward into the region thanks to a High pressure system
centered northeast of Bermuda. PWAT anomalies in some of the
probabilistic guidance range between 2 to near 3 S.D. Best chances
of precipitation will be during the day on Monday with highest QPF
amounts in our southeastern areas. We will continue to monitor the
latest trends with this tropical moisture and update the forecast
accordingly. With an established southwesterly flow with tropical
moisture moving poleward, high temperatures on Monday will be
slightly above average ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s with
Td ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s, so it will be quite
humid on Monday. We can also not rule out some thunderstorms to
start the extended period on Monday.

Some of the latest guidance has some showers lingering into
Tuesday morning as a cold front makes it way through the region.
Otherwise, tranquil weather is expected to remain throughout most
of the long term forecast period as a high pressure system remains
in control from tuesday into Thursday. High temperatures will
remain above average. As we go into the day on Friday, our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms return into the region with
temperatures near average for early June.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ridge aloft will continue to strengthen through the TAF
period...00Z/Sunday. However, a line of scattered convection
continues to approach from the Mohawk Valley and Catskills. Have
addressed threat with VCSH for KALB-KGFL with a TEMPO group for
KALB with the one stronger cell in southern Montgomery County.
But with loss of heating threat for convection will dissipate this
evening.

Otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this
evening with variable cloud cover, however if a storm impacts a
TAF site then MVFR would be expected with brief IFR a possibility.
Overnight MVFR visibilities are expected to developed. Any fog
will burn off quickly after sunrise.

Mild and somewhat hazy conditions for Saturday with an isolated
shower/storm in the afternoon but too early to place in the TAF`s
as confidence and coverage are low as the aforementioned upper
ridge builds.

Winds mainly south to southwest winds at 5 knots or less this
evening, diminish further through this evening to light and
variable with a south to west flow developing Saturday morning.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hazy, hot and humid conditions will continue through the Memorial
Day weekend, as an upper level ridge builds across the region.
Mainly isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon and evening. Sunday and Monday may see the
greatest threat for more widespread showers and storms as multiple
frontal boundaries approach.

Relative humidity values will increase to between 90 and 100
percent tonight, then drop to minimum values of around 40 to 50
percent Saturday afternoon. RH values will increase to between 85
and 100 percent Saturday night.

Winds tonight will be southerly around 5 mph, becoming southwest
around 5 mph on Saturday. Winds Saturday night will be light and
variable.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Forecast precipitation over the next five days is expected to be
highly variable as much of it will come from isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. While widespread hydrologic issues are not
anticipated, localized downpours could lead to ponding of water or
minor flooding of urban, poor drainage, and low lying areas
especially Sunday and Monday.

Drier weather looks to take hold for the middle of next week, as
high pressure builds in and takes residence across the region.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
With a hot and increasingly humid air mass in place, here is a
look at some record high temperatures.

Albany NY...
May 27th...94 degrees 1914
May 28th...91 degrees 1911
May 29th...93 degrees 1931
Daily records date back to 1874

Glens Falls NY...
May 27th...86 degrees 2014 & 1978
May 28th...88 degrees 1988
May 29th...88 degrees 2012
Records date back to 1949

Poughkeepsie NY...
May 27th...91 degrees 1965
May 28th...90 degrees 2012
May 29th...96 degrees 1969
Records date back to 1949, however data is missing
from January 1993 through July 2000

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...IAA

www.weather.gov/albany


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