Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 021734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS INTO TOMORROW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 122 PM EDT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD HOT AND DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
AT THE SFC...AN ANTICYCLONE EAST OF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO FUNNEL
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE 60S
IN MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY CHANGES TO HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TEMP
AND SKY TRENDS THIS UPDATE. FEW-SCT CUMULUS HAVE FORMED WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING. A PRONOUNCED CAP BTWN ROUGHLY 850-775 HPA ON THE
12Z KALY SOUNDING WILL PROHIBIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND SRN
QUEBEC. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 85-90F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS AND
OVER THE HILLTOWNS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES
WELL INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY ONLY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPOU...BUT IFR
TO VLIFR FOG EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 06Z AND
13Z. AFTER 13Z/14Z...ALL FOG WILL HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CANADA COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTN. AT THIS POINT HAVE NOT EVEN INCLUDED
VCSH AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS AT THE TAF
SITES...THEN MAINLY CALM TONIGHT...AND BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AT 8 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL


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