Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 050120
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
920 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON....TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH TOMORROW DOES NOT LOOK AS WET AS TODAY IT WILL BE
REMAIN RATHER COOL AND CLOUDY WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 920 PM EDT...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE CONTINUED
ACROSS THE REGION AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED JUST TO
THE NORTH OF OUR REGION.

WHILE THE BEST FORCING WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST...PLENTY OF LEFTOVER
MOISTURE AND A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AT LEAST PATCHY DRIZZLE. ONCE AGAIN
WITH THE CLOUDS WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO END UP A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE CONCERNING LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
40S...BUT SOME 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WINDS SHOULD BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 5 MPH. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW...DIVING FROM THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY...INTO
THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BECOME OUR MAIN WEATHER MAKER
DURING THIS PERIOD. IT IS FORECAST TO CARVE OUT A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

OUR AREA MIGHT CATCH A BREAK IN THE ACTION THURSDAY IN THAT MOST OF
THE GOOD FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. HOWEVER WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH 30 POPS. TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE A
LITTLE MILDER BUT WE STILL FALL SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WE CONTINUE TO LEAN WITH THE COOL SIDE OF MOS MACHINE
GUIDANCE.

THE BEST SHOT FOR ANOTHER ROUND RAIN APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SHOT OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A BAND OF
LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE RAIN WORKING AT LEAST INTO OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

THERE ARE HINTS THAT A DISTINCT "DRY SLOT" MIGHT WORK INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY ALLOWING PERHAPS FOR A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BY
AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BOLSTER TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. THIS IS NOT
ETCHED IN STONE...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR NOW. STILL...THERE WILL CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY.

HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TREND CLOSER TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS WILL BE BY TUE-WED.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSETTLED SAT THROUGH AT LEAST SUN
MORNING...BEFORE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OCCUR
MON-TUE AM. THEN...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY LATE TUE INTO WED...AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
STALLS SOMEWHERE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

HERE ARE MORE SPECIFICS...

SAT...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO SHEAR
OUT AND LIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY...ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
     ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS...BUT
STILL MAY BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 60S FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN COOLER MAX
TEMPS COULD OCCUR IF RAIN LINGERS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SAT NT-SUN...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT NT
OR SUN AM...WITH THE 12Z/04 GFS ON THE SLOWER RANGE OF THIS
TIMING...AND THE 12Z/04 ECMWF QUICKER. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
SUN MORNING...WITH H700-H500 LAPSE RATES APPROACHING OR EVEN
SURPASSING 7-7.5 C/KM. IF THE SFC FRONT REMAINS A LITTLE
SLOWER...AND ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP BEFORE ITS
PASSAGE...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER LOW TOPPED CONVECTION TO
FORM ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD CONTAIN STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL. THIS APPEARS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS
TIME...BUT FUTURE MODELS TRENDS AND UPSTREAM SFC/UPPER AIR OBS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS SLIGHT POTENTIAL. EITHER WAY...IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOLER TEMPS AND STRONG GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE LIKELY SUN AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 40 MPH. TEMPS FOR SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE
40S...WITH SUN MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUN NT-MON NT...COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT GENERALLY
DRY...OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT SUN NT-MON.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH MON
MAX TEMPS REACHING THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...EXCEPT POSSIBLY MID 60S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TUE-WED...THE CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE...AS
MOST MODELS SUGGEST A FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS/EXTENDS ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHILE POSSIBLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP
AND RIPPLE EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON-WED. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 60S IN MOST
AREAS TUE-WED...ALTHOUGH IF CLOUDS/RAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...MAX
TEMPS MAY BE MUCH COOLER...PERHAPS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT
MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOK FOR MAINLY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO
IFR. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. CIGS LOOK TO SLOWLY REACH ABOVE MVFR TOMORROW
EXCEPT HOLDING AT HIGH END MVFR AT KPSF.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED
TODAY. MEANWHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM THE E TO NE 5-10 KTS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DAMP UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL OF THE TIME...THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. SUNSHINE
WILL BE VERY LIMITED (IF ANY AT ALL). RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD SO DRYING WILL BE MINIMAL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY NORTH TO EAST 5-15 MPH THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A
STRONG CUTOFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH MIGHT STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
TO KEEP ANY REALLY HEAVY RAINFALL JUST OUT OF OUR AREA.

THE RAINFALL THIS EVENING LOOKS TO TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE. TOMORROW SHOWERS LOOK MORE RANDOM AND LIGHT.

THEN PERHAPS...A LITTLE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN COULD REDEVELOP LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THE UPPER AIR LOW OUT TO SEA BUT MIGHT BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR EARLY SUNDAY.

TOTAL QPF OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS LOOKS TO RANGE BETWEEN HALF TO ONE
INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY  SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THIS RAINFALL SHOULD CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS...OTHER THAN TO
PRODUCE SOME MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


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