Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 300226
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...WHILE CLEAR SKIES PERSIST TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT...THEN A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN ROUGHLY 4 AND 7 AM. A FEW BURSTS OF
STEADIER SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AROUND DAYBREAK...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION...AND SOUTHERN VT. IN THESE AREAS...UP TO AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW COULD FALL BY DAYBREAK...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OF 2-4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL HERKIMER CO.

THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN TEMPERATURES HOLD
STEADY...AND EVENTUALLY RISE THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE
ADVANCING CLOUD COVER...INCREASING WIND...AND SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.

THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS


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