Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 302012
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
412 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface high will move off the New England Coast tonight, with
clouds increasing from the west. A slow moving cold front and an
upper level disturbance will bring the next threat of showers and
thunderstorms to the region Wednesday into Thursday...followed by
a cooler and drier air mass building in by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 410 PM EDT, still some passing high clouds mixed in with
patchy cumulus/stratocumulus, resulting in mostly sunny skies.
Temps have reached the upper 70s to lower 80s in valleys, with
mainly lower/mid 70s across higher elevations.

Skies will be clear to partly cloudy this evening. Then, a
weakening cluster of showers/thunderstorms currently located just
north and west of Lake Ontario into eastern Ontario will continue
translating E/SE. As it heads into a deeper layer of dry air, and
outruns a low level jet, the bulk of the showers/thunderstorms
should dissipate before reaching the western Adirondacks.
However, the high/mid level clouds associated with this feature
should still reach NW areas later this evening, and for most areas
near and north of I-90 after midnight.

With mid level isentropic lift increasing later tonight, there
could be some isolated showers/sprinkles reaching the western
Adirondacks after midnight, and perhaps as far south and east as
the west/central Mohawk Valley region and upper Hudson Valley
closer to daybreak.

Some lower clouds/stratus may advect and/or develop across
portions of the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT toward daybreak as a
low level southerly flow develops. The northwest edge of any lower
clouds should remain confined to this region, as a more southwest
flow aloft allows for slight downsloping and drying off the
Catskills and should thus prevent low clouds from expanding
further N and W.

Lows should mainly be in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with perhaps
some mid 50s across portions of the western Adirondacks.
Temperatures may reach minimums in some areas before midnight, and
then rise thereafter due to increasing clouds and some wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For Wednesday, a cold front will slowly approach from the
northwest. Both model forecast soundings and RH fields suggest
quite an abundance of thick high/mid level clouds through much of
the day. This may act to limit afternoon instability somewhat,
especially for areas N of I-90, with most models suggesting MU
CAPES of 500-1000 J/kg, with the potential for higher CAPES where
any breaks in the clouds develop, with the best chances for higher
CAPES across portions of the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. For now,
have indicated scattered showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon,
with areal coverage increasing from NW to SE during the afternoon.
A developing upper level jet max will be translating east across
northern NYS and into northern New England late in the day,
allowing areas from I-90 south to be proximate to the right
entrance region by late afternoon/early evening, so the
possibility of increased areal coverage of showers/storms will
exist toward and perhaps a bit after sunset from the eastern
Catskills into the central Taconics, mid Hudson Valley, Berkshires
and NW CT. With the expectation of plenty of clouds, have taken a
blend of the warmer MET MOS and cooler MAV MOS, with generally
lower/mid 80s in valleys and 70s across higher elevations.

Wednesday night, scattered showers and thunderstorms should be
ongoing for areas from the I-90 corridor southward, before
gradually decreasing in areal coverage later in the evening and
overnight with diminishing instability. It should remain fairly
mild, with lows mainly in the lower/mid 60s, except for upper 50s
across higher elevations across the Adirondacks, eastern
Catskills, and western New England.

Thursday, although the initial cold front should move south and
east of the region in the morning, the upper level trough/cold
pool and weak secondary cool front will be approaching during the
day. This should lead to at least isolated showers during the day,
with some possibility of slightly greater coverage. Forecast
soundings suggest MU CAPES possibly reaching around or just over
500 J/KG, so will keep mention of isolated thunder as well. It
will be cooler and somewhat less humid, with highs mainly reaching
the mid 70s to lower 80s across lower elevations, with 60s across
the higher elevations, particularly across the Adirondacks.

Thursday night-Friday, the aforementioned upper level trough
should slowly move across the region late Thursday night into
Friday. Enough shallow/low level instability may allow for
isolated showers to develop Friday, especially across higher
elevations. It will be breezy and quite cool/less humid, with Thu
nt/Fri am lows mainly in the 50s, with some upper 40s across
higher elevations, and Friday highs reaching the mid 70s for
valley areas, and only lower/mid 60s across higher terrain,
although some of the highest peaks of the Adirondacks and southern
VT may only reach the 50s or less along with gusty winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
This will be a completely dry period unless a tropical system
happens to find its way to our region...but for now this is not
expected.  High pressure settles in from central Canada...and by the
beginning of the week...becomes stuck in place from Nova Scotia to
the northeastern U.S. to the southern Appalachians.

Daytimes will be mostly sunny with moderating temperatures each day.
High readings on Saturday will range from the upper 60s in the high
peaks...to the upper 70s in the Hudson Valley.  Highs by Tuesday
will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s.  The nighttime periods will
show moderation as well...with lows Friday night ranging from the
upper 40s to upper 50s.  By Monday night...lows will be in the mid
50s to lower 60s range.  There will be little change in the
day-to-day surface relative humidity pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Few-sct diurnal cu around 4-5 kft this afternoon will dissipate
this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Some passing thin
cirrus clouds will be possible today as well. Southerly winds of
around 5 kts will become light and variable by this evening.

As a frontal system starts to approach the area, high level clouds
will increase tonight. These clouds will prevent any radiational
fog from forming overnight. Bkn-ovc cigs of 15-25 kft will be in
place by late tonight into Wednesday morning.

Winds on Wednesday will increase to 5 to 10 kts from a s-sw
direction. It should remain dry through 18z Wednesday, but the
chance for showers and possible t-storms will increase after that
time, as a cold front starts to get close to the area.


Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A surface high will move off the New England Coast tonight with
clouds increasing from the west. A slow moving cold front and an
upper level disturbance will bring the next threat of showers and
thunderstorms to the region Wednesday into Thursday...followed by
a cooler and drier air mass building in by Friday.

The relative humidity values will recover to 75 to 100 percent
tonight. For Wednesday afternoon, in the more humid air mass the
RH values will only lower to 50 to 65 percent Wednesday
afternoon.

Winds will be south to southwest at 5-10 mph tonight, and 5-15
mph for Wednesday.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near
thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are anticipated the next 5 days
ending Sunday.

A cold front and an upper level disturbance will move across the
hydro service area Wednesday into Thursday morning with scattered
showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Total rainfall
amounts will range from a tenth to a third of an inch with some
locally higher amounts. There could be some locally heavy downpours
in thunderstorms which may lead to ponding of water in low lying,
poor drainage and urban areas.

Dry weather returns for Thursday night into the weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...KL/OKeefe/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...KL/OKeefe/Wasula


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