Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 230840
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
340 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front expected later this morning will keep the Panhandles
cool through midweek. The front should be knocking on our northern
border just before the morning commute and surge south of the area
shortly after the noon hour. Despite the early frontal passage the
southeastern Texas Panhandle could still reach into the 70s while
the rest of the area remains in the 60s for highs. Winds behind the
front are expected to ramp up into the 20 to 25mph range with higher
gusts before dropping below 15mph overnight. With a surface high and
northerly winds our highs on Tuesday should also remain in the 60s
area wide.

Wednesday, westerly becoming southwesterly surface winds will help
to send our high temperatures back into the 70s area wide. This
shift in the wind is the response to a lee side trough developing
across the eastern slope of the Rockies throughout the day. These
warmer temperatures won`t stick around long as another cold front
is expected to push across the Panhandles on Thursday. This cold
front will bring a much colder airmass to the region which could
result in our first widespread freeze Friday morning and hard
freeze Saturday morning.

Precip chances Thursday night into Friday morning remain the
focus for the forecast. Models have shown a spread in the
evolution of the upper trough which may or may not bring precip to
the Panhandles. The latest GFS and Canadian have stayed with
previous solutions of keeping the area void of any chances due to
a less amplified trough. The 00Z ECMWF held onto the precip
chances since it depicts an elongated lobe of vorticity trying to
break off from the parent closed low. Looking at the GFS ensemble
members, there are a couple of perturbations which lean towards
the ECMWF solution. With that being said, the vast majority don`t
show the diving southern end of the trough. For this forecast have
held onto low end POPs for late Thursday night into early Friday
morning. With that being said there is serious doubt in potential
for precip to make it through the near-surface dry layer across
the southern Texas Panhandle presented even in the ECMWF. Should
precip survive to reach the ground there could be a flake or two
mixed in.

As mentioned above, Saturday could start out with temperatures
well below freezing, and these conditions will likely kill
sensitive vegetation. As we move closer to this time Freeze
Watches/Warnings will likely be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                68  40  62  38  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  69  37  62  34  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              63  35  60  35  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  70  43  63  40  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              72  37  63  34  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  70  39  62  37  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               73  42  64  38  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 68  37  62  36  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  67  37  62  35  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                72  38  62  37  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                70  40  62  36  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   71  41  59  39  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                74  43  64  38  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              77  44  66  38  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/14



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