Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 250802
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
301 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL ONLY INCREASE ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE ROCKIES AND TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE SHOULD SHARPEN UP
OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.
THERE REMAINS SOME DOUBT ON WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL FIRE ALONG
THE DRYLINE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE SMALL
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
FIRING SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OUT ONTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THE LIFT WILL INCREASE ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLES AND HOOKS UP WITH THE DRYLINE THAT
WILL PROBABLY BE BACK CLOSE TO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES. MOISTURE AND
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE REST OF THIS FORECAST.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER WITHIN THIS TROUGH
BETWEEN THE PANHANDLES AND THE GREAT LAKES. A MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS WAVE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN
CWA. SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED SOME POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH OCCASIONALLY WINDY PERIODS
FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY. THE WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL
FACTOR...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GET DOWN BELOW 15
PERCENT IN MANY PLACES.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES...WITH ELEVATED
ELSEWHERE. WE WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES FOR SATURDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                88  55  85  47  75 /   0   0   5  10   5
BEAVER OK                  88  56  92  52  76 /   0   0   5  20   5
BOISE CITY OK              86  49  84  43  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
BORGER TX                  93  60  87  54  76 /   0   0   5  10   5
BOYS RANCH TX              90  52  88  47  75 /   0   0   0  10   5
CANYON TX                  88  53  85  46  75 /   0   0   0  10   5
CLARENDON TX               89  56  86  53  78 /   0   0  10  20   5
DALHART TX                 88  45  85  41  70 /   0   0   0  10   5
GUYMON OK                  90  50  89  49  76 /   0   0   0  10   5
HEREFORD TX                86  50  84  44  73 /   0   0   0  10   5
LIPSCOMB TX                86  58  87  55  77 /   0   0  10  20  10
PAMPA TX                   87  53  86  49  73 /   0   0  10  20   5
SHAMROCK TX                85  56  87  55  80 /   0   0  20  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              87  57  88  55  82 /   0   0  20  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

19/15



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