Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 262309

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
609 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

00Z TAF Cycle

A dryline will remain across the eastern Panhandles this evening as a
cold front pushes south and east across the three TAF sites around
05Z to 08Z Friday. Southwesterly winds 15 to 25 knots with higher
gusts will veer around to the west 5 to 15 knots following the
passage of the cold front later tonight...and then to the northwest
around 15 to 25 knots with higher gusts after about 20Z Friday. VFR
conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 00Z Saturday
with few to broken high based low clouds or mid level clouds.



.Prev Discussion... /Issued 440 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

For this afternoon`s forecast package, the main focus remains once
again on the potential for thunderstorms (some of which could become
severe) from late this Memorial Day Weekend through the middle of
next week. The synoptic upper-air pattern through the weekend will
continue to favor troughing over the western CONUS, with flow
becoming more zonal and progressive by the beginning of next week.
Plenty of available low-level moisture and passing shortwaves in the
upper-level flow should keep the Panhandles` weather active for
several days. Those with outdoor or travel plans for the Memorial Day
weekend should remain alert to changes in the forecast and the
possibility of periods of severe weather.

For the remainder of today, the dryline will remain stretched north-
south across the far eastern Panhandles before retreating westward
overnight. Dewpoints remain in the low 60s just east of the dryline,
with a narrow corridor of high instability (MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg)
extending into western Oklahoma. A few earlier storms developed from
this unstable airmass, and a few more are possible through the
evening as a passing upper low provides continued support for storms.
A threat for isolated severe weather will be present with these
storms. The surface low will remain centered over western KS through
tomorrow night and should draw a weak cold front through the
Panhandles late tonight through tomorrow. It will also push the
dryline into western Oklahoma during the afternoon hours and keep the
main threat for severe weather to our east. Scattered thunderstorms
will be possible along and behind the cold front under daytime
heating and proximity to the upper low. Severe weather is not
anticipated with storms on Friday, though steep low-level lapse rates
beneath the mid-level moisture mean that strong wind gusts will be
possible with virga or light rain. A quieter Saturday is expected as
the Panhandles will be between shortwaves and should experience mid-
level height rises throughout the day.

The threat for widespread severe weather returns on Sunday as the
next shortwave digs into the Desert Southwest. Southerly winds
return by Sunday and bring with them a surge of low-level moisture
once again. Dewpoints should reach into the mid 60s across most of
the area during the day, leading to 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE by early
in the afternoon. At that time shear looks to be minimal across the
Panhandles, suggesting pulse type and loosely organized storms may
develop at first. Mid-level winds will strengthen through the day
and should bring a surge of moisture to help saturate a deeper column
of the atmosphere. This should transition the threat to more of a
hail and heavy rain scenario by late Monday into Sunday. Forecast
soundings currently show 1000-2000 J/kg of tall skinny CAPE by the
evening hours Sunday. The western CONUS trough should translate
slowly eastward through the middle of next week and will allow for
shortwaves to trigger additional rounds of thunderstorms over the
mountains and eastward across the High Plains. Have kept slight
chance to chance POPs through Wednesday to account for this activity.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible through that time.


With an influx of low- to mid-level moisture expected Sunday through
early next week, the possibility of heavy rainfall will be on the
increase across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. This could lead to
localized flooding or flash flooding, as well as instances of creek
and river flooding. If planning outdoor activities for the weekend,
be sure to pay attention to nearby thunderstorms as runoff from heavy
rainfall can cause rapid rises along area creeks and rivers.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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