Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 202333
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
533 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs...
VFR conditions expected to prevail next 24 hours.  No clouds
below 8000 feet expected.  No visibility restrictions unless
blowing dust or blowing snow becomes an issue on Sunday.
Southwest surface winds around 15 kt expected until Pacific cold
front causes southwest surface winds to commence gusting above 30
kt by 16z Sunday.  Canadian cold front arrives between 21z and
23z Sunday, shifting surface winds to northwest, with gusts of 40
kt or higher beginning.  Could see light snow and blowing snow at
northern terminals Sunday afternoon.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 313 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level open short wave trough moving through western Utah
and western Arizona will pinch off into a closed low near the 4-
corners by late this evening. This upper level low will strengthen
as it moves from northeast New Mexico Sunday morning on into
southwest Kansas by Sunday afternoon.  The Panhandles will be on the
dry and windy side of this system for the most part. Some snow will
be possible in the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle
behind the Canadian cold front and on the back side of the upper
level low. A few places in the western Oklahoma Panhandle could pick
up to a half to one inch of snow.

The winds will be the main story on Sunday for all of the region.
West winds will start out in the 30 to 40 mph range with higher
gusts mainly across the western Panhandles during the day on Sunday.
By later Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening northwest winds in the
30 to 40 mph range with higher gusts will spread southeast across
the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle behind the cold
front. Am a little concerned that the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle and
the northeast Texas Panhandle, mainly north of interstate 40 may
experience high wind warning criteria, but confidence is not high
enough to mention them in the High Wind Watch at this point. These
areas likely will see the strongest winds after the sun goes down
and then the winds will be battling any nighttime inversion that may
be setting up.

Upper level low moves northeast away from the Panhandles on Monday,
but surface pressure gradients stay fairly tight, so winds will
likely still be gusty, especially across the eastern Panhandles.

High temperatures will slowly modify toward the end of the week as
upper heights rise with a weak ridge moving across.

FIRE WEATHER...
Not sure that the Red Flag Warning criteria will be met across much
of the Fire Weather Watch area with regard to relative humidity
values, but 20 foot winds will be up in the 25 to 35 mph range with
higher gusts.  Therefore, have continued with a Fire Weather Watch
as it remains uncertain if the relative humidity criteria will be
met.

Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible across the eastern
Panhandles on Monday as gusty winds remain and relative humidity
values drop into the 15 to 20 percent range.

Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible on Thursday across
the northern Texas Panhandle and the Oklahoma Panhandle as gusty
southwest winds return.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                40  53  25  49  23 /   0   0   5   0   0
Beaver OK                  36  54  26  47  22 /   5  10  40   0   0
Boise City OK              34  46  19  46  15 /   0  70  10   0   0
Borger TX                  45  57  30  51  25 /   0   5   5   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              35  54  21  51  16 /   0   5   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  37  52  23  49  20 /   0   0   5   0   0
Clarendon TX               41  58  28  52  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 34  51  21  50  18 /   0  20   5   0   0
Guymon OK                  37  52  26  47  19 /   0  30  30   0   0
Hereford TX                36  52  21  50  20 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                42  60  29  49  24 /   0   5   5   0   0
Pampa TX                   45  57  27  50  24 /   0   0   5   0   0
Shamrock TX                36  62  28  53  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              36  63  28  55  23 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
     Collingsworth...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...Hemphill...
     Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Oldham...Potter...Randall...
     Roberts...Wheeler.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     the following zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley...
     Moore...Oldham...Potter...Randall...Sherman.

OK...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     the following zones: Cimarron...Texas.

&&

$$

03/14


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