Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 182001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
301 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2017

...A mix of rain and snow tonight into Tuesday...

High Impact Weather Potential...

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Warm front is still holding south of our
CWA this afternoon. All of Michigan remains in a rather
soupy/saturated airmass along and north of this boundary. Low
stratus and fog continue to hang over the entire Western Great Lakes
region...but vsbys are slowly improving across the region as
southwesterly flow begins to strengthen ahead of an approaching
front. Appears the freezing drizzle/flurries has mainly ceased
across our area...and temps have warmed to just above freezing in
most locations.

As we head into tonight...Temps will briefly drop just below
freezing this evening before rebounding into the mid to upper 30s
later this evening and overnight as WAA strengthens ahead of the
front. Chances of precip will increase late this evening and
overnight...especially across northern sections of our the
associated wave rides thru Upper Michigan. Model soundings suggest
the potential for a mix of rain and snow thanks to low level WAA
ahead of the front. Any snow accumulation will be minor (under an
inch) and confined to Eastern Upper Michigan and interior sections
of Northern Lower Michigan.

Front will swing thru our CWA on Tuesday. Residual light synoptic
precip will gradually transition to lake-enhanced precip by
afternoon and will eventually switch over to all snow later in the
day and evening as CAA commences in the wake of the front. Again...
any new snow amounts will be relatively minor (around an inch or
less) and will be mainly across Eastern Upper Michigan and far
Northern Lower Michigan. Temps will hold in the mid to upper 30s
thru most of Tuesday.


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2017

Lake effect snow will continue Tuesday night on northwest flow over
eastern upper and portions of northern lower Michigan. Accumulations
appear to be higher over eastern upper at this time...although a
heavier band over northwest lower with a Lake Superior question is
not out of the question. 850mb temps near -16C with the lakes
ranging from 3-7C. This lake effect snow will diminish Wednesday
afternoon as a very narrow ridge of high pressure and much drier air
ahead of the next approaching storm system builds over the forecast
area. Models are still in consensus with WAA precip beginning late
Wednesday/Wednesday night ahead of the aforementions next storm
system developing on the lee side of the Rockies. Snow amounts
should be fairly minor throughout the WAA event that lasts through
Thursday...although portions of southeast Chippewa, Mackinac, and
maybe some of northeast lower could see some lake enhancement with
easterly/east-southeasterly wind off of Lake Huron along with 850mb
temperatures in the -11 to -15C range.

Daytime temperatures will reach into the mid to upper 20s while lows
will drop into the teens to near 20.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 301 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2017

High impact weather potential: Mild with mixed wintry pcpn Friday,
trending colder with snow for the weekend.

At upper levels, a weak 500mb ridge over the Atlantic coast and
Great Lakes Friday, will slowly push east of the region to begin the
weekend while a 500mb trough settles into the Great Lakes Sunday and
Monday. 850mb temps in this pattern will cool from around -5c Friday
to -16c Monday. This pattern will generate afternoon high
temperatures around freezing Friday, before falling to below normal
readings in the teens Monday. At the surface, A central Plains storm
sytem will lift across the srn Great Lakes Friday night before
exiting into Quebec by Sunday. This pattern will generate a rain
snow mix over much of northern Michigan Friday. Snow showers are
expected during the weekend and to begin the upcoming work week, as
colder air filters into the region on the backside of the exiting
storm system.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2017

After some lingering scattered flurries/patchy drizzle early this
afternoon...better chances of mixed rain and snow showers will
develop across mainly far Northern Lower Michigan (PLN) late this
evening and will continue thru Tuesday along and ahead of an
approaching front. Remaining IFR cigs and vsbys will slightly
improve to low MVFR as we head toward evening as low level winds
begin to strengthen ahead of the front. LLWS will develop this
evening ahead of this boundary and will persist overnight into
early Tuesday morning. SW surface winds AOB 10 kts this afternoon
will strengthen to 15 to 25 kts tonight and will then shift to the
west on Tuesday.


Issued at 301 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2017

Winds and waves will continue to strengthen to gale warning and SCA
criteria tonight and will hold there thru Tuesday and Tuesday night
as a cold front and associated short wave ride thru Michigan. Mixed
light rain and snow will develop tonight into Tuesday...switching
over to all snow by Tuesday night as CAA begins in the wake of the
cold front.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Wednesday for LHZ346>349.
     GALE WARNING from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-344>346.
     GALE WARNING from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Wednesday for LSZ321-322.


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