Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 301415
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1015 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AHH...FUN WITH STRATUS. LOW CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD IN SE SECTIONS
(S OF MIO AND E OF LAKE CITY)...AND IN CENTRAL/EASTERN CHIPPEWA
AND EASTERN MACKINAC. LESS WIDESPREAD STRATUS WAS SEEN ALONG THE
LAKE MI COASTAL COUNTIES OF NW LOWER MI. MEANWHILE...PLACES N AND
E OF GLR WERE ENJOYING A SPARKLING MORNING. THESE CLOUDS HAD NOT
YET STARTED TO APPRECIABLY ERODE AS OF THE MOST RECENT VIS SAT
IMAGE (945AM). THAT PROCESS WILL GET STARTED SHORTLY...BUT IN THE
MEANTIME...HAVE HAD TO CRANK UP CLOUD COVER THRU EARLY- AND EVEN
MID-AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER. (FORECAST
ALREADY HAD CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER THRU THE DAY IN SE SECTIONS).
MAX TEMPS WILL ALSO ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SW INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. 500 MB TROUGH REMAINS JUST SOUTH
OF OUR CWA...EXTENDING FROM SRN LAKE HURON THRU SRN LWR MICHIGAN.
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER FAR SRN AND FAR NRN SECTIONS OF
OUR CWA. IN BETWEEN...CLEARING SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LINGERING
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND
LOW STRATUS.

EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
EXPAND BELOW THE BUILDING SUBSIDENCE (AND NOCTURNAL) INVERSION THRU
EARLY MORNING. ONCE DIURNAL MIXING BEGINS...FOG AND LOW STRATUS
SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX OUT INTO A BKN AND EVENTUALLY SCT CU DECK AS
INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES WITH AND EVENTUALLY ERODES ANY
RESIDUAL SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GREATEST CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
ACROSS OUR SRN CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON FOR A BIT
LONGER THAN THE REST OF OUR CWA. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

LOSS OF ANY DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE WILL
LEND TO CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING. AS WINDS AGAIN BECOME CALM
DIRECTLY UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN
DEVELOP...BUT SHOULD BE NOT AS WIDESPREAD AND THICK AS THIS MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...WARMER AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFYING IN
RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING TROUGH/-PNA TELECONNECTION OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC.  THIS IN TURN IN BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S...THOUGH THERE IS SOME WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OF THIS RIDGE PARTICULARLY ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST.  AS AN
ASIDE INTERESTING TO WATCH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TRAIN ACROSS THE
PACIFIC BASIN WITH "KILO"..."IGNACIO"...AND "JIMENA" ALL NICELY
LINED UP ROUGHLY BETWEEN 15-20N AND CHURNING WESTWARD.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE RUNS WEST-EAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND.  WEAK FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN
OHIO/INDIANA SOUTHWEST INTO OKLAHOMA.

OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST CYCLE.  UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
UPPER LAKES TO KICK OFF SEPTEMBER...THOUGH AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS/
TROUGHING IN THE PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES/GULF OF MEXICO
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AND LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (ALREADY SOME
EVIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IN EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
TEXAS).  SO THERE MAY BE SOME TRAPPED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITHIN AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST
EARLY IN THE WEEK.  THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THOUGH WITH WEAK
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN U.S. WOULD THINK ANY OF THIS WOULD
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME HAVING AN IMPACT ON MICHIGAN.  SHORT WAVE
TROUGH GETTING KICKED OUT OF THE MEAN EASTERN PACIFIC LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY.  ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO GET STRETCHED OUT IN A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTATION ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND BACK INTO THE DAKOTAS...MAY
ALSO BE THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
MORNING.  THIS COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY SLIDE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AT
SOME POINT MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY THOUGH WEAKENING WITH TIME.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
MONDAY/TUESDAY.  POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY???

MONDAY...FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL CERTAINLY WON`T FEEL LIKE
IT.  RATHER QUIET SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS
BUILDING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AT OR ABOVE 588DM.
ANY FOG EARLY SHOULD MIX OUT LEADING TO A GOOD DEAL OF SUN...WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES.  DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY RUN FROM 60-65 SO WILL FEEL
SOMEWHAT STICKY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  WARM NIGHT EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
AS WELL...EARLY MORNING LOWS TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY...WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH LAKE SUPERIOR/
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY.  DEW POINTS WILL TICK A LITTLE
HIGHER WHICH WILL ADD TO THE HUMIDITY...AND ALSO INCREASES POTENTIAL
FOR GENERATING SOME INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN.  SO SOME CONCERN
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WILL LEAVE OUT OF
FORECAST FOR NOW TO COVER "COLLABORATION ISSUES".  ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME POP-UP CONVECTION ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER
IN INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS (PERHAPS AIDED BY LAKE HURON BREEZE).
EXPECT TO SEE SOME LOCALES UP AROUND 90 TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: HIGHER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS (IN THE 588DM
VICINITY) WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED RANGE
WEDNESDAY...AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND.  MAY STILL BE SOME
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WITH THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION
OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S...BUT A WARM
PATTERN SYNOPTICALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

FORECAST TRENDS: GETTING INTO HOT TERRITORY WEDNESDAY WITH MORE 90+
DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED.  THINK AT SOME POINT WE`RE GOING TO HAVE
TO DEAL WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH LITTLE TO
FOCUS ON IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO TRY AND DELINEATE WHICH DAYS ARE
MORE AT RISK.  AT THE VERY LEAST LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
VERY WARM/HUMID WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS AT MVFR/IFR
EARLY THIS MORNING. BUILDING SUBSIDENCE...LOW LEVEL DRYING AND
DIURNAL MIXING WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FOG AND LOW STRATUS THRU
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING
OR SO. CALM/LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL LEND TO LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD SLOWLY SLIDES SE OF MICHIGAN.
AREAS FOG WILL IMPACT THE NEARSHORE AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY
WEEK. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BY MID WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR


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