Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 012025
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS. TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER
QUIET WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

POTENT SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...DRIVING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND QLCS THROUGH
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY A VERY ACTIVE LINE OF
STORMS AND DEMONSTRATES JUST WHAT 40-50 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR CAN DO EVEN WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MAIN COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE HAD SOME CLEARING TAKE SHAPE BEHIND THE
INITIAL LINE OF STORMS AND THERE IS SOME CONVECTION BUBBLY ALONG
THE MAIN COLD FRONT IN WISCONSIN.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM COLD WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
WITH LATE DAY HEATING BEHIND OUR FIRST LINE OF STORMS...SUSPECT
ANOTHER THIN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SLIDE UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND HAVE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ACCORDINGLY.
UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE
CAN GET IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALOFT REMAIN
STRONG...AROUND 50 KNOTS OR SO...SO IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH.

AFTER FROPA...SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...ROLLER COASTER RIDE TO CONTINUE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLE STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

A CONTINUED FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE FAIRLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SURFACE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
30 YEAR AVERAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE COOLING OFF THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS
CENTER AROUND POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS
ARE MARGINAL AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT IS MOIST ENOUGH THROUGH THE
COLUMN TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS (20). MEANWHILE...THERE COULD BE SOME STRATUS TO DEAL WITH IN
THE MORNING...THOUGH THIS IS NOT A GIVEN. SO EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERALL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. COOLER
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY
RETURN SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO
LOWER 80S. CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A CAP IN PLACE (SO NO POPS ADDED JUST
YET).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH BY FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL AT SOME POINT EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH DECENT WIND FIELDS (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35
TO 40 KNOTS). HIGHS PUSH FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE TOASTY MIDDLE
80S (YIELDING POSSIBLE ML CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG). ACTIVITY SHOULD
PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING SO HAVE LOWERED POPS BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER LOW CHANCE POPS...THOUGH CURRENT TRENDS
POINT TO IT BEING A MAINLY DRY DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING TRANQUIL BUT SOMEWHAT
COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MONDAY. LOWS IN
THE REFRESHING UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 2 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NOW ADVANCING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN AND WILL IMPACT PLN/APN TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 20Z
OR SO. LINE OF STORMS ALREADY EAST OF TVC/MBL. BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER THAT...A PERIOD OF VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
FOLLOW OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ON TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE VEERING WEST
AND DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WILL STRETCH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OUT
A FEW MORE HOURS TO COVER ONGOING GUSTINESS. WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM





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