Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 311740
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN ELEMENTS OF THE CURRENT FORECAST ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.
MORNING SOUNDING AT BMX SHOWED A VERY DRY AIR MASS FROM THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THE WAY UP TO AROUND 550 MB. THAT VERY DRY AIR
HAS STARTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 20S AND LOWER. THIS DEWPOINT DROP HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
HANDLED POORLY BY THE MODELS THIS WINTER...AND WILL DO MY BEST TO
MAKE THE NECESSARY CORRECTIONS TO THE DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. NO OTHER BIG CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 15 OR SO HOURS. COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES DO SUGGEST
THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. I`VE INCLUDED A LOWER CEILING AT MGM AND TOI TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. I DO BELIEVE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL NOT
START TO AFFECT TERMINALS NORTH OF THOSE TWO UNTIL RIGHT AT THE
END OF THIS 24 HOUR FORECAST. THERE`S LIKELY GOING TO BE SOME
LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS WELL. WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME
IF CONDITIONS WENT FROM VFR TO IFR RATHER QUICKLY AROUND 18Z
SUNDAY...AS THE RAIN SHIELD FURTHER INVADES CENTRAL ALABAMA.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




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