Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 211155
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
555 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

Despite presence of thick cirrus clouds over central Alabama and
some mid level clouds over east Alabama, many locations have
fallen into the 30s this morning. A weak short wave trof will
approach Alabama this afternoon. Low level moisture will also
increase over east Alabama on the back side of an exiting surface
high. These features will combine to possibly produce a few
showers over southeast Alabama today. Increasing low level
southerly flow today will push temperatures into the lower and
middle 60s. Low level wind flow will become northwest this evening
as the short wave trof passes to the north of Alabama, and drier
air will advect back into the area.

58/rose

.LONG TERM...
Wednesday through Monday.

A deep but disjointed upper-level trough will cover most of the
eastern CONUS and Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, while a prominent
ridge holds steady over the western CONUS. This pattern will
support a sprawling area of surface high pressure across the
Southern Plains and Ohio Valley and eastward into the Deep South.
An area of weak low pressure in the northern Gulf could result
rain showers clipping our far southeastern counties Wednesday
night into Thanksgiving Day. Otherwise, conditions should remain
cool and dry. A similar story of cool and dry weather is expected
for Friday through Monday due to an extended period of northwest
flow aloft.

87/Grantham


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conds expected thru the period. Southerly low level flow has
pulled moisture northward into east Alabama where cigs were in
the 3-4 thousand foot range. Lcl MVFR cigs could impact KTOI thru
15z. A weak surface front will approach Alabama from the west
today and sfc winds will begin from the southeast and gradually
veer to the southwest this afternoon. Wind speeds will be
generally 5 knots or less. As an upper level trof passes to the
north later today, the low level moisture will be pushed into
Georgia leaving mainly cirrus.

58/rose


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers are possible chances across the southeastern part of the
area today and again Wednesday night into Thursday. Otherwise,
cool and dry conditions are expected for the next 7 days. There
are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     61  39  58  34  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
Anniston    62  41  60  37  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  62  42  58  36  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  63  42  59  33  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Calera      63  41  59  36  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Auburn      62  47  63  45  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
Montgomery  65  44  65  40  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
Troy        66  47  66  43  63 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



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