Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 281111
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
611 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

.DISCUSSION...

THE PATTERN CONTINUES IN A STATUS QUO WITH AN ELONGATED ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND ALABAMA ON THE ONSHORE FLOW SIDE OF THE WEAK RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE EAST HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF FOR FRIDAY AND POPS
SHOULD BE LOWER WITH LESS FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT
STILL SCATTERED AND DIURNALLY BASED AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE BUT WE SHOULD SEE A POP GRADIENT WITH BETTER CHANCES IN
THE NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE FRONT SINKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND THE UPPER MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND DIGS A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A SURFACE FRONT WILL HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BUT ONLY MAKE A LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THEN
INTO TEXAS. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH THE FRONT MAY REACH ALABAMA
BRIEFLY...IT WILL LIKELY STALL AND PUSH NORTHWARD AND ONLY SCAPE
THE AREA. THE UPPER FLOW WILL GIVE LITTLE HELP AS THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA WITH
ALABAMA STAYING ON THE WET ONSHORE FLOW SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS WILL
KEEP SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FOR EACH DAY WITH THE HELP OF
DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH AT THE VERY LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
UNTIL THIS TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO OPEN UP AND WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THAT
IS 8 DAYS OUT...SO THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR NOW.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PATCHY ACROSS AREA SO FAR THIS MORNING BUT
STILL EXPECT PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP
DURING NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND TO THEN LIFT TO MVFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z WITH MORE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK
UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY END BEFORE 03Z...BUT LOOK FOR PATCHY
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
HARD TO PIN-POINT WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR (AREAS RECEIVING MORE RAIN
TODAY WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THIS) SO INDICATED CHANCE AT ALL
TAF SITES.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     82  66  84  65  85 /  60  30  40  20  30
ANNISTON    82  67  84  65  85 /  70  30  40  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  82  68  84  67  86 /  60  30  40  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  84  68  87  68  86 /  50  20  40  20  40
CALERA      82  67  85  66  86 /  60  30  40  20  30
AUBURN      82  66  84  66  86 /  60  30  30  10  10
MONTGOMERY  86  68  88  67  89 /  60  30  30  20  20
TROY        85  66  87  65  89 /  60  30  30  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16


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