Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 291959
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
259 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WELL THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY AND WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA AFTER 9PM TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF. AS THE SYSTEM WORKS IN TO THE AREA IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE RAIN. SO WHILE THERE IS
DEFINITE POPS FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED WITH THAT FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. IF A STORM CAN STAY TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME HAIL...THUS A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING AT THIS POINT JUST A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO IN
REGARDS TO ANY WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LEAVE IT BEHIND. THIS IS
OF COURSE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...70S AND
80S.

THE NEXT BIG COLD FRONT WILL WORK CLOSE TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOTHING STANDS OUT OF THE ORDINARY
WITH THIS FRONT EITHER...BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET THE
AREA MAYBE A DAY OR TWO OF CLEARING BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...HOWEVER...LOWER CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AT THE
NORTHERN SITES AFTER SUNSET...WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO AFTER MIDNIGHT.  EXPECT VIS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS.  MGM AND
TOI LOOK TO BE A LATER ONSET WITH JUST SOME DRIZZLE CONDITIONS WITH
RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AS THE FRONT
WORKS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...IT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN
MOISTURE AND PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD LESSEN SIGNIFICANTLY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  69  41  71  51 /  70  60  10  40  30
ANNISTON    50  69  44  74  54 /  60  60  10  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  51  70  48  74  56 /  70  60  10  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  54  73  52  75  57 /  60  50  10  40  30
CALERA      52  71  50  74  58 /  50  60  10  40  30
AUBURN      47  72  49  74  56 /  20  60  20  40  30
MONTGOMERY  51  76  55  78  59 /  20  50  20  40  30
TROY        48  76  54  79  59 /  10  40  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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