Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 290015
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
715 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016
For 00Z Aviation.
A nice rain event is underway in the northwest, where drought
conditions are the worst right now. So while not a drought buster,
anything is better that what has been in place. We will see a
shortwave slide through this afternoon and take the better lift
north and east of the area after sunset, so rain chances decrease
quite a bit after 00Z. As we get into Friday that main focus will
drift southward a touch and place the best rain chances on both
sides of I-20. This will allow temperatures to be warmer in the
northeast and southwest, while the central portions of Central
Alabama may only get into the mid 80s.
This pattern really remains in place through the weekend and much
of next week, with just small shifts on the areas with the best
chances of rain depending on the passing shortwave energy in
place. With most of this being mesocale in nature will go
generally with high chances for scattered showers/storms each day
and drop to isolated chances in the evenings. The main focus will
still be during the afternoons each day, but an isolated shower
can not be ruled out anytime day or night.
00Z TAF Discussion.
Isold shwrs and storms will continue thru 02z, with the remaining
activity possibly affecting KASN,KANB,KMGM. The primary focus for
convection and low clouds will be along and south of trof axis
across northern Mississippi and western Tennessee. Moist low
level southwest flow will bring low cigs into north Alabama
starting arnd 06z. Widespread MVFR cigs likely across the northern
TAF sites by 09z. Drier air across the southeast counties will
likely prevent lower cigs at KTOI and KMGM. SCT shwrs will develop
along and north of I-20 between 12z and 15z...with TSTMS becoming
more prevalent after 18z.
Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the next several days with highs in the upper 80s and low/mid 90s.
Surface winds will be less than 10 mph and generally from the
southwest/west through the weekend. Since surface dew points are
so high, critical fire weather thresholds are not expected to be
met, with no watches or warnings anticipated.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 71 89 71 91 71 / 40 40 40 50 30
Anniston 72 90 72 92 73 / 40 40 30 50 30
Birmingham 73 90 74 93 75 / 40 50 30 50 30
Tuscaloosa 72 91 73 93 74 / 20 50 30 50 30
Calera 73 90 73 93 74 / 40 50 30 50 30
Auburn 73 92 74 92 74 / 30 30 20 40 30
Montgomery 74 94 75 96 75 / 30 40 20 40 30
Troy 72 92 73 92 73 / 20 30 20 40 30