Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBMX 272349
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
649 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE I-20/59 CORRIDORS THIS
AFTERNOON. NO LIGHTNING SO FAR DUE TO WARM UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY ONCE
WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. A SIMILAR SET-UP AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH A
WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE CONVECTION MAY
SHIFT TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 ON TUESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS PUSHING SOUTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE TROF AXIS TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
THIS TROF WILL CAUSE THE UPPER RIDGE TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL POOL OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 2.O-2.3
INCH RANGE. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH FOR THE RAIN CHANCES TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-20.
THE TROF AXIS WILL HANG UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA OVER THE
WEEKEND AS IT BUMPS UP AGAINST AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST. THIS WILL CREATE MOSTLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA AND RAINY CONDITIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.

FOR NOW HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW 105 FOR MOST AREAS
THIS WEEK. FORECAST HEAT INDICES GO ABOVE 105 FOR A FEW HOURS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WITH RAIN EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...IT IS LIKELY THESE VALUES WILL NOT BE REACHED.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME ISOLATED EVENING SHOWERS THEN LINGERING CIRRUS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. VERY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH SURFACE HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW A
CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR VIS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...THERE AREA NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.

87

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.