Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 280424
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1124 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The combination of moist southerly low level flow and weak
convergence has resulted in shower bands on radar tonight. Have
not been able to find an observation or report of any rain making
it to the ground yet. There has been recent enhancement in
reflectivity and would not be surprised if a few locations were
seeing sprinkles or light rain.

Expect this banding of light rain to continue as a shortwave
approaches the area from the west. Later tonight, have
added thunder as the shortwave crosses northwest Central Alabama.
Expect most locations to be dry, but have expanded low POPs to
include more of the area. Temperature trends are on track.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Weak forcing has produced some isolated light showers this evening
in mainly the western sections of the area and 00Z NAM is indicating
some very light rainfall in the northwest section of the state
through 12z. However believe much of the precipitation on radar
is not reaching the surface and even that which is isolated and
very light so current thinking is to not include any SHRA in 06z
TAFs. Otherwise cigs generally above 10 kft have overspread the
area and should continue overnight. Look for cumulus to redevelop
after 15z across the area with mid to high level cigs above but in
general VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Isolated TSRA expected to develop across the area mainly after 18Z
Saturday during the heat of the day but chance of any particular
terminal being affected by a storm is very low and precludes
mentioning them in TAFS at this time.

41

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Mostly dry conditions with above normal temperatures are expected
through the weekend with only minimal rain chances. There are no
fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     64  85  63  89  66 /  20  30  10  20  10
Anniston    66  85  64  88  66 /  20  20  10  20  10
Birmingham  68  85  67  89  69 /  20  20  10  20  10
Tuscaloosa  69  88  66  91  69 /  20  20  10  20  10
Calera      68  85  66  90  68 /  20  10  10  20  10
Auburn      66  86  65  89  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
Montgomery  67  88  67  92  70 /  20  10  10  10  10
Troy        65  87  66  91  69 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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