Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 240341
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
941 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED...SO WILL REMOVE THEM
FROM THIS EVENINGS FORECAST. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM...SO WILL KEEP THE
MOUNTAINS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TOMORROW WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE STATE AND THE TAIL END OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

CONVECTION IS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH FOOTHILLS RIGHT NOW
WITH NOTHING ON THE PLAINS. THE STORMS ARE MOVING ABOUT 5 MPH.
THE LATEST ACCARS SOUNDINGS FROM DIA SHOW ABOUT 2000 J/KG OF CAPE
BUT THERE IS STILL A TAD OF CIN. IF IT GETS TO 93 F... THE CIN IS
GONE. WATER VAPOR PICTURES ARE SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER IS PROGGED TO SLIDE A
BIT SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NEW MEXICO BY
00Z LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS SHOW
WEAK UPWARD MOTION IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY LOOKS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL. THERE IS 0.70 TO 1.30 INCH OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. BOUNDARY
LAYER DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED IN THE 45 TO 55 F RANGE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THERE IS A BIT
MORE OVER ALL THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPERATURES...
TONIGHT MAY STAY PRETTY WARM WITH ALL THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
THRUSDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THIS AFTERNOON`S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

SOME STORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW LEVELS LOOK FAIRLY DRY...SO STORMS TO
PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE RAIN. ON FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT AS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MONTANA WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOST OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE GETS PUSHED
SOUTH OF THE CFWA...THOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OVER THE AREA FOR
SOME CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE
STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATING AN INVERTED-V PROFILE...SO
STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN. FOR SATURDAY...RIDGE RETROGRADES AND BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NORTHWEST. BULK OF THE MOISTURE TO
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...BUT ENOUGH ACROSS THE AREA FOR SOME
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING WITH SOME COOLING... THOUGH HIGHS SHOULD STILL
GET INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS. AIRMASS DOES BECOME A
BIT STABLE OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR
STORMS. LOW LEVELS STILL LOOKING A BIT DRY...SO STORMS TO PRODUCE
MAINLY GUSTY WINDS WITH BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. ON
SUNDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER COLORADO WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT AND
COOLER AIR PUSHING INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 80S. ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA FOR SOME STORMS...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ON MONDAY...THOUGH MAINLY AT MID LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOST LOCATIONS. BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS BRING A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
TUESDAY...WHICH MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD
INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS.
BY THURSDAY... WAVE TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE. THIS COULD RESULT IN A DECREASING CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 941 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS
RETURNING TO TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS. TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL SEE A
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE METRO AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...DANKERS



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