Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 030220
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
820 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 814 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

LINE OF STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH METRO AREA...WITH SOME
GOOD RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS INTO THE 30S. MORE STORMS ARE UPSTREAM
AND HEADED OUR WAY FROM WYOMING...SO RAISED POPS A BIT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. QUESTION IS HOW LATE WILL CONVECTION
CONTINUE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM THE OTHER MODELS SHOW
CONVECTION ENDING. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE EARLIER IDEA OF CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

THERE IS SOME MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS CONVECTION GOING RIGHT
NOW...ABOUT 15% COVERAGE. NOTHING ON THE PLAINS SO FAR. THERE IS
STILL SOME CIN TO OVERCOME. THE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 50S F OVER
THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. MODELS KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IN
THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH A BIT OF SPEED MAXIMUM TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AROUND 18Z. ON THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS THERE
IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW THIS EVENING. THERE ARE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLIES PROGGED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MOISTURE...THERE
IS QUITE A BIT PROGGED MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH A BIT LESS ON
FRIDAY. THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 60S TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE
0.50 TO 1.2 INCH RANGE. THE CAPE IS FAIR THIS EVENING...NOTHING
OVER 1000 J/KG...BUT THERE ARE HIGHER NUMBERS ON FRIDAY...MORE SO
OUT ON THE PLAINS. THERE IS A MID LEVEL STABLE LAYER OVER THE
PLAINS THIS EVENING ON THE LAPSE RATE FIELDS...THERE IS ALSO ONE
PROGGED ON FRIDAY. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
MEASURABLE RAIN THIS EVENING...WITH A BIT MORE FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH "CHANCE"S THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY..."SLIGHT CHANCE"S ELSEWHERE. FOR
TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-2 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AND
NORTHERN NEVADA...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SATURDAY BEING
THE WARMEST DAY. MOST LOCALES ON THE PLAINS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.

MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH INCREASED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS SOUNDING HAS PW`S ABOVE 1.25 INCHES IN DENVER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE COOL AND CLOUDY...WITH MORNING FOG AND
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY...MOST
NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY GO BACK TO EASTERLY THIS EVENING...THEN
SOUTHERLY LATE EVENING. ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10 AND MIDNIGHT...WILL UPDATE TAFS TO MENTION
VCTS. FOR TOMORROW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
AFTER 22Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RJK



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