Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 260942

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
342 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

A building upper level ridge, surface high pressure across the
state and a dry airmass will dominate Colorado weather for the
next few days. Skies are clear across the forecast area except for
a few clouds around Grand Lake and Limon. These clouds shoudl
dissipate by mid-morning, leaving behind lots of sunshine.
Temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday, some
10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal for the end of October. Skies
should remain mostly clear tonight, allowing low temperatures to
fall to the upper 30s and lower 40s on the plains and the 20s and
lower 30s in the mountains and high valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

An upper level ridge will be over the area on Thu with dry
conditions and above normal temps.  Aftn highs across nern CO will
be from 15 to 20 degrees abv normal.  By Fri the ridge will flatten
somewhat with the flow aloft becoming more swly.  The GFS increases
mid and high level moisture across the area while the ECMWF keeps
this moisture further west thru the aftn hours.  Overall will favor
the ECMWF and only mention a slight chance of aftn showers in zn 31.
Once again temps will be way abv normal with aftn highs across nern
CO in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Record high at Denver is 80 so
this could be tied or bkn.

For Fri night into early Sat both the ECMWF and GFS agree there will
be an increase in subtropical moisture as a wk disturbance moves
across WY.  Will keep in a slight chc of showers in the mtns except
over zn 31 where pops will be in the chc category.  For the rest of
Sat not sure why the blended soution is showing a slight chc of
showers in the mtns.  Cross-sections fm both the ECMWF and GFS show
a dry airmass in place thus it looks to me it would be dry.
Meanwhile a wk cool fnt will move into nern CO which will drop highs
5 to 10 degrrees.  Readings will range fm the upper 60s over the far
nern corner with low to mid 70s elswhere.

Sat night into Sun once again not sure why blended solution
continues to show a slight chc of showers in the mtns.  Both the
ECMWF and GFS continue to show a dry airmass in the low to mid
lvls thus it will likely it end being dry thru Sun aftn. As for
highs a sfc lee trough will redevelop east of the mtns so will
see warmer temps across the plains with readings back in the mid
to upper 70s.

For Sun night into Mon both the ECMWF and GFS show an upper level
trough moving across the nrn Rockies with nrn CO being on the srn
end of this feature.  Both models show an increase in moisture
especially in the mtns north of I-70 so there could be a chc of
showers.  Over nern CO it will remain dry as a pacific fnt moves
across which will drop temps into the upper 60s to lower 70s.  On
Tue the flow aloft will be swly.  Both the ECMWF and GFS show some
moisture embedded in the flow so will continue with a slight chc of
showers in the mtns.  Over nern CO it will remain dry with temps in
the mid to upper 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

No aviation impacts through the next 24 hours. Skies will be
mostly clear and winds will be mostly light, out of the south to




SHORT TERM...Dankers
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