Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 020807
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
407 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MON
EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

345 AM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSING THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET AT 3 AM
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. BEHIND THE FRONT DEW PTS FALLING INTO
THE 50S ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND WILL ADVECT ACROSS CT/RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA AFTER SUNRISE.  THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY NICE
SUMMER DAY WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPS IN THE 80S.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND COLUMN
DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME HI BASED SCATTERED
CU/SCU.

LIGHT WNW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT MAY RESULT IN MODEST SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF RI
AND MA. HOWEVER THIS AFTERNOON AS SWELLS ERODE SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD
LOWER AS WELL ALONG WITH A LOWER RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER AS SSW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THE NAM AND NMM SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE WITH STRATUS AND FOG OVERSPREAD THE
SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. THIS MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE
ACROSS THIS REGION.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO YIELD INCREASING DEW PTS WHICH IN TURN WILL
RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NY STATE LATE IN THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE FEATURES ARE WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF HEIGHT FALLS OR COOLING TEMPS ALOFT OCCURS OVER OUR REGION.
THUS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN DRY MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY
LIGHT HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS WESTERN MA WHERE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK FOR T-STORMS TOWARD SUNSET. ALSO LOW
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN WESTERN MA/CT AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

OTHER AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF
MA AND RI WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARD MIDDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SUMMER-LIKE DAY WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS 85 TO 90
AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST /COOLER THERE GIVEN SSW SFC WINDS OFF THE
OCEAN/ ALONG WITH DEW PTS CREEPING UPWARD TO 65 TO 70. HOWEVER AN
INCREASING SSW BREEZE WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE VERY WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS
* UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD...KEEPING SNE WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
COOLER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE BY MID-WEEK AS LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN OVER THE REGION.
STILL A LOT OF TIMING ISSUES ESP WITHIN EACH SHORTWAVE...BUT FOR
NOW APPEARS PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SAT/SUN.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MARCH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
STALL ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS DESCENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO MAINTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE
40-50 KTS AND WITH K VALUES ABOVE 30C...CANT RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON TUESDAY.
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. STILL TIMING
ISSUES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE BUT CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...ESP ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. STILL PLENTY OF
SHEAR 40-50 KTS WITH DESCENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE VALUES
ABOVE 1500 J/KG...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THEM STRONG.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 2 TO 3 DAYS AWAY BUT DOES NEED TO BE WATCH.
THE CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN HAS DEVELOP STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. IN FACT SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF EVERYTHING LINES UP GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE THE GENERAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT TO THE WEST LEADING TO A DRY WEDNESDAY.
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ON THURSDAY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE SOUTH OF SNE. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH THE TRACK BUT HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
80S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES LOW 60S TO THE MID 50S.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS SUBSISTENCE TAKES HOLD OF THE
REGION. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME SORT
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST...MUCH LIKE A WINTER NOR`EASTER. THIS IS
STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT SO ONLY KEPT A CHC PRECIP FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

2 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS
MORNING BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE EASTERN
MA. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREA OF
CONCERN IS SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA WHERE IFR IN LOW CIGS/FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE INLAND...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

MONDAY...IFR POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI IN PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH LOW
RISK OF T-STORMS WESTERN MA AND CT LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE
TIME. MVFR/IFR WITHIN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW RISK FOR A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR INCREASING
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST IN APPROACHING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...3 TO 4 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS SLOWLY ERODE TODAY. WNW WINDS
BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.

TONIGHT...SSW WINDS PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN WATERS
IN THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET. WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY REQUIRING SCA.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS.

THURSDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN


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