Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 190303
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1103 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
OVERNIGHT...THEN BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING A
CHILLY MORNING...FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL. THEN AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL PUMP
NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...WITH
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT 1100
PM...11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS ALONG A CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY ON THE LAKE. CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT WITH
THE 00Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWING AN INVERSION DEVELOPING AT AROUND
900MB. CLOUDS WILL SHIFT...HOWEVER...AS WINDS ALOFT VEER FROM
NORTH TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLOUDS ON LAKE
ONTARIO TO MOVE ONTO LAND OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE HRRR
DEPICTS. THESE SUBTLETIES MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY TRICKY. HOWEVER...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY STAY ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT
WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST IN AREAS THAT CLEAR AND THE COOLEST
OF VALLEYS. IN THESE LOCATIONS...EXPECT INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER 40S MORE COMMONPLACE ALONG THE
LAKE SHORES...AND WHERE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL PROMOTE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UP HERE. TEMPERATURES
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DROP INTO UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH
THE COOLEST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. WITH THIS IN MIND...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
OSWEGO COUNTY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
PROVIDING A NICE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH COOLER UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT COMMENCE UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD REALLY BECOME PRONOUNCED DURING THIS TIME
WITH A POTENTIALLY VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY
COOLING INFLUENCES DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID DAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FLOW OF INCOMING WARM AIR
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BY THIS MAY BE A
TAD CONSERVATIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGING TO NEAR +14C
ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. SOME OF THE FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES TO NEAR 40 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...BEFORE RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 03Z...THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION IS VFR...WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ON LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT THAT THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A MODEST FLOW...AND A
STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL CAUSE STRATUS TO EXPAND
OVERNIGHT. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED IS JHW...BUT WINDS
ALOFT SHIFTING FROM N TO E WITH AN AREA OF LAKE CLOUDS LIKELY TO
CLIP ROC/BUF/IAG BRIEFLY. EVEN SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER
STRATUS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP BEFORE FOG BECOMES WIDESPREAD.

FRIDAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
(POSSIBLY KJHW) WILL MIX OUT/BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING. MODERATE EASTERLIES
WILL PRODUCE 2-3 FOOT WAVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY.
ASIDE FROM THIS AREA...NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND AND WAVE BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/JM
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JM
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/JM
MARINE...APFFEL/JM







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