Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 260556
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
156 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
COOL-DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CHILLIER AIR POURING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
LAST EVENINGS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING INTO THE
UPCOMING DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME LAKE INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS
EAST OF LK ONTARIO...BUT WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ABV 5K
FT...NOTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES ARE
EXPECTED EAST OF LK ERIE.

SYNOPTICALLY...A VERY ROBUST SHORTWAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...REACHING THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
A BLOSSOMING AREA OF SHOWERS FOR THAT REGION BETWEEN ABOUT 09-15Z.
AFTER THAT TIME...THE SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF...LEAVING BEHIND THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE...LAKE-INDUCED CLOUDINESS WILL CHARACTERIZE MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AS COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF A MATURE STORM SYSTEM
CROSSING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING DAY WILL BE SOME 10 DEG F LOWER THAN
THOSE FROM SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE MID 50S ACROSS NIAGARA COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NOW BE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND. A LINGERING SHOWER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED.

HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE. THIS
WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES...WHICH COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD 30S ACROSS WNY. REMAINING LAKE CLOUDS SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER 40S OVERNIGHT.

WHILE THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER...A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE FORMING. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN MONDAY
AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE EJECTS OFF THE CENTRAL US ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL GO FROM KANSAS TO JUST WEST OF CHICAGO
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS WNY THROUGH THE DAY.

THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIE NEAR LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT AND A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING A MILD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH
WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE MID TO UPPER 40S WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL CUT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS JAMES BAY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS OUR
REGION...AND WHILE THE TIMING IS STILL WAVERING ON THE GLOBAL
MODELS...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL CROSS LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ALONG
THE FRONT...MOST OF THE AREA WILL START TUESDAY DRY WITH EVEN SOME
SUNNY BREAKS. THIS SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH MILD SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE REGION. RECORDS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE THE
FOLLOWING...BUFFALO...74/1946...ROCHESTER...76/1984...AND WATERTOWN
75/1984. IF THIS FRONT IS DELAYED ENOUGH...WE MAY CHALLENGE SOME OF
THESE RECORDS BEFORE COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROGRESSIVELY BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOW GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHILE ALOFT A BROAD SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN. AS THE AIR
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL BEHIND A RECENT COLD FRONT PASSAGE (850
HPA TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE ZERO WEDNESDAY
MORNING DOWN TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT) LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL FALL FROM TIME TO TIME EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. WHILE A SPOTTY SHOWER/SPRINKLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS...THE BULK OF THE
TIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

THIS COOLING ALOFT WILL ALSO MAINTAIN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE
WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES AVERAGE AROUND TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
ARRIVAL/PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND POOL OF COLD
AIR. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DROP THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND FORMS A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WHILE THE GFS DROPS THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY/SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SATURDAY UNTIL CERTAINTY INCREASES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINING
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EAST OF BOTH LAKES
COULD PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS.

A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AND
CROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS WHILE LOWERING CIGS TO BETWEEN
1500-2500 FT. THESE CIGS WILL THEN CLIMB BACK TO VFR LEVELS DURING
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON...JOINING THE REST OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

WINDS FOR THE UPCOMING DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RATHER GUSTY...
REACHING SPEEDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY EVENING.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
WEST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND A FRONT WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS IT VEERS TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE COMBINATION OF THIS FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
MAINTAIN WAVES IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE ON LAKE ERIE AND 6 TO 8 FEET
ON LAKE ONTARIO.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKES...HOWEVER IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A FEW HOURS LONGER FOR WAVE
ACTION ON SOUTHEAST LAKE ONTARIO TO SETTLE...UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
AFTER RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL FRESHEN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/SMITH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD







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