Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 041820
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
120 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR
AS OVER NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. COLD
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW WITH
JUST A LITTLE MODERATION IN AIR TEMPERATURES...WHILE LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON AN ARCTIC LIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IT IS RELATIVELY QUIET THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES RESIDING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BEGIN TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF
LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EARLY EVENING. LIMITED MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SHALLOW LIFT WILL KEEP SNOW
ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM. AS THIS FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MID OVERNIGHT...BUT
LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVERALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE A COATING OR LESS. SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL END BY DAWN TOMORROW MORNING TO OUR
SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. TEMPERATURES AT
850 HPA WILL DROP TO NEAR -20C TOMORROW MORNING...AND REMAIN AT THIS
LEVEL THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. WITH CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW OUR AIR TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TEENS.

THIS COLDER AIR POURING OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME
LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 3-4K
FEET AND THOUGH THE COLD AIR MASS WILL CREATE MODERATE LAKE
INSTABILITY...THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MULTIBANDED
CHARACTERISTICS TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL HOLD ACCUMULATIONS
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW TO AROUND AN INCH OR TWO
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION DURING THE
PERIOD...AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
WORKING INTO THE AREA TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN ALOFT THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY. THIS INCOMING
AIR MASS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD
WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS AS
VALUES DROP INTO THE 10 BELOW TO 25 BELOW RANGE.

A BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY COMBINED WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES DIVING TOWARD -22C AND AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO
OF DEEPER MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE AREA SHOULD DELIVER SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE OPEN WATERS
OF LAKE ONTARIO. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE
COVER AND THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...
THERE STILL SHOULD BE MINOR LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS. TIME OF YEAR WILL
FAVOR DIFFUSE BANDING...WITH A MORE CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE
UPPER COLD POOL.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY LIKELY REMAINING IN THE TEENS AND ONLY
IMPROVING TO AROUND 20 FOR FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE ARCTIC
AIR FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE
AREA WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE LOOKING MORE CONSISTENT FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WITH
A LOT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND A WAVE RUNNING UP THE FRONT TO OUR WEST.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO FLOOD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL NOT VERY COMFORTABLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SPECIFIC TIMING. THE WARM UP
WILL BE SLOWED TO SOME EXTENT BY THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER BUT THERE
CERTAINLY SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NUDGING UP FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
ALLOWING FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NOT GO AS WARM AS IT COULD GET
JUST YET GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL 5/6 DAYS AWAY AND NO CONFIDENCE YET
ON THE EXACT TIMING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MAY WELL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...OFFSET OF THE NORMAL HIGH/LOW FORECAST
TIMES. TEMPS COULD BE ALREADY BE ON THE WAY DOWN BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...OR IT COULD BE 50 DEGREES. OTHER POSSIBILITIES WILL HAVE
TO EXAMINED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND WE GET MORE COMFORTABLE WITH
THE TIMING SUCH AS THE RISK OF FLOODING AND THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 18Z LOW CLOUDS ON THE BORDER LINE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR HANG
ACROSS THE REGION. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND
VEERING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIMITED THOUGH SOME MVFR VSBYS IN SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL
INCLUDE THIS POSSIBILITY IN A TEMPO GROUP.

A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A LOW DECK OF CLOUDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF TOMORROW
MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL AGAIN FLIRT BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES TOMORROW
THOUGH ANY CLEARING WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS OF
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A WEAK BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH
IFR/MVFR VSBYS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO
EAST OF THE LAKE FRIDAY AND DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE VFR.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY EAST OF THE LAKES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STORM OVER QUEBEC
AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. THIS
WILL JUSTIFY KEEPING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE NY
NEARSHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID WEST AND OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FROM EAST TO WEST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...SMITH






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