Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 032151
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
251 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

WEATHER SYSTEM LAST NIGHT CARVED OUT A NICE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
OUR REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK ENERGY ALOFT IN THE FLOW
WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS
LITTLE IF ANY LOW LEVEL RESPONSE. SO I ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT SNOW
OF PERHAPS FLURRIES IN THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES. FURTHER
WEST...THE HRRR IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS IS SUPPORTED SOMEWHAT BY THE GFS. SO I DID ADD SOME
SPOTTY LOW POPS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS AND NEARBY ADJACENT AREAS
OVERNIGHT. THE BRISK WIND OVER THE COLD AIR MASS DOES DRIVE DOWN
THE WIND CHILLS OUT EAST. AS SUCH I WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES FROM 11 PM TO 11 AM
WEDNESDAY.

TOMORROW...WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND SURFACE FLOW WILL SWITCH TO A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LATE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME WARMING OVER TODAYS HIGHS. I AM GOING LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE FOOTHILLS DUE TO THE DEEP NEW
SNOW THERE. ELSEWHERE...WE MAY BE ABLE TO MELT OFF MOST OF THE
SNOW NOW THAT WE ARE IN TO EARLY MARCH.

EVEN BETTER WARM UP FOR THURSDAY AS WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
STRENGTHENS AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS ANTI-CYCLONIC OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR BRISK WINDS IN THE GAP LOCATIONS THURSDAY
...BUT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MADE A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. A NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS BRING A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS INCONSISTENT WITH WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY
WITH THE DISTURBANCE BEING FURTHER WEST. IN ANY CASE...REMOVED
POPS FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SNOW
SHOWER TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN THIS SYSTEM...DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 50S FOR THE WEEKEND WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM KMLS TO KBHK WHERE AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER
AND MVFR CONDITION WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOOLEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004/029 016/046 029/050 029/050 030/054 033/058 033/058
    00/B    00/N    01/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
LVM 001/031 022/044 029/048 028/049 030/052 031/055 033/056
    10/B    00/N    01/B    21/B    00/B    00/U    00/U
HDN 002/028 012/047 025/051 026/051 028/055 030/059 030/059
    00/U    00/B    01/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
MLS 901/019 006/046 025/048 027/048 028/051 029/055 032/057
    20/U    00/B    01/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
4BQ 902/018 003/042 020/047 024/047 026/051 027/056 029/057
    10/B    00/B    00/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
BHK 903/012 000/041 021/046 024/045 025/047 026/051 029/053
    20/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    00/U    00/U
SHR 907/018 005/041 021/045 022/044 024/050 027/055 029/056
    00/U    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/B    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11
      AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 33-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.