Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 242107

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
307 PM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Mon and Tue...

Tonight lows will be upper 50s to low 60s in most places. Zonal
flow aloft brings some weak disturbances Monday and Tuesday into
our area. Monday afternoon lee side troughing develops, aiding in
thunderstorm formation in the late afternoon/early evening hours.
Looks like initialization along the western mountains in the
afternoon with outflows sparking convection over the plains. 850
mb low drifts southeast overnight, with the low level jet
developing over the Dakotas and moist surface air advecting from
the south keeping thunderstorm potential well into the night over
eastern and northern portions of our CWA. Temps in the mid to
upper 90s with dry surface air will mean the threat for strong
wind gusts associated with thunderstorms, however shear appears
fairly weak for well organized convection. Similar conditions
expected on Tuesday as another shortwave moves into the area.

.LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...

Medium range models are having some disagreement on the timing of
short wave energy across the region Wednesday. Both ECMWF and GFS
have bubble ridge situated over the desert SW with a series of
waves tracking across the U.S. Rockies. Strength and timing progs
are not consistent handling the short waves...though each
establishes unstable NW flow over our CWA by Thursday. We do not
plan to let inconsistent 12Z cycle progs throw us off track from
going forecast. Overall forecasts still look good with slight
cooling and a chance of thunderstorms for the middle portion of
the work week. There is also still a risk of isolated severe
storms along the MT/Dakota border region thanks to decent fetch of
low level moisture from the Great Plains. Of course, the
anticipated increase in thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday means
an increase in lightning activity which could result in additional
fire starts.

Models still suggest a transition toward warmer/drier conditions
Friday as ridge begins to build back in from the west. Warming
trend will continue Saturday, but models hint at some monsoonal
moisture being wrapped around Great Basin ridge into our region by
next weekend. BT



Dry weather with VFR flight conditions will prevail
through tonight...along with generally light winds. BT



    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
BIL 061/095 064/094 064/091 062/087 061/090 062/094 065/094
    01/U    22/T    22/T    32/T    21/B    11/U    22/T
LVM 051/094 054/095 054/091 054/088 052/090 053/094 054/093
    02/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/B    12/T    22/T
HDN 058/097 061/096 062/093 059/089 056/090 059/096 061/093
    01/U    23/T    22/T    22/T    21/B    11/U    22/T
MLS 063/098 067/097 067/092 064/087 061/089 062/094 067/095
    01/U    23/T    23/T    32/T    33/T    10/U    22/T
4BQ 062/099 064/097 063/094 061/089 060/090 061/095 063/096
    02/T    34/T    23/T    33/T    32/T    11/U    12/T
BHK 059/096 062/093 061/087 059/084 058/085 057/090 061/092
    02/T    34/T    34/T    44/T    43/T    11/U    12/T
SHR 055/097 057/096 058/093 057/089 054/091 054/095 057/096
    12/T    13/T    22/T    23/T    31/B    11/U    12/T




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