Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 040719
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
319 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL 850MB JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
WITH YESTERDAYS STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
H85 WINDS MIXING DOWN. HAVE CUT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO UPPER 80S
EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FROM REMNANTS OF RW/TRW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...REMAINING THERE
INTO MONDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW...AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CHANCE TO
LOW END LIKELY POPS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
POPS FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES...BUT CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP THOSE READINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH FLATTENS
OUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN
HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WENT WITH
DIURNALY GENERATED POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.

UPPER LEVEL TROF TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID MORNING FROM THE WEST
15 TO 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO LIFT NORTH BY
MIDWEEK DECREASING THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS AND POSSIBLE
EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



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