Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 290012
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
712 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF
COAST WILL BUILD EAST INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR. EARLY AFTERNOON
READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 40S ARE WELL ON THE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. EXPECT STRONG
NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S GIVEN
NEAR CALM WIND AND DRY AIRMASS. THE LOCAL RADIATION TECHNIQUE
INDICATED 24 DEGREES AT CAE AND 23 AT AGS. THE NORMALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

WE MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. IF THESE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH THEY COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE E CONUS...IN A
GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THURSDAY...AND WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AHEAD
OF IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES...SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRI/SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS TIME PERIOD...AND BOTH ARE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NW MEX...WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE E
CONUS MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MID
TO LOWER MISS VALLEY SUNDAY WHICH SHIFTS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LOW NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THIS FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT WEDGE OVER OUR FA. SO WILL TREND
HIGHER ON TEMPS SUN. RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUN/SUN NT TO ACCOMPANY THE LIKELY POPS. MODELS BRING FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MON INTO TUE. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WITH A NEW WAVE FORMING ALONG
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION TUE NT OR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE
CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH AROUND 15Z THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP
TO 10 MPH AFTER 15Z.  THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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