Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KCAE 231749
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
149 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER THE AREA.
WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
VIRGINIA EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS CAROLINAS. RESULTING WEAK COLD AIR
WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPED IN THE
CSRA...LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS RE-DEVELOPING
IN THAT REGION. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOW 60S NORTH
TO THE MID 70S CSRA. LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SPREADING
NORTH ALONG COAST WHERE MOISTURE FLUX IS THE STRONGEST. CHANCE
SHOWERS ACROSS MIDLANDS/CSRA THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE LOW
ALONG COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT...AND MODELS
SUGGEST MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVER NIGHT...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AT TIMES...SOME CLEARING
ON WESTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA. MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOKS REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING PESKY UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING NORTHERLY
WINDS INTO THE AREA...WITH DRIER AIR ATTEMPTING TO MOVE IN AT LOW-
LEVELS. BEST CHANCE FOR THE DRIER AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE UPSTATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL BE
SITUATED JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO THE EASTERN
CWA. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL...WITH THE
GFS/NAM KEEPING THE BULK OF THE RAIN EAST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE MOISTURE FURTHER WEST AND INTO THE CWA. LEANED
MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH KEEPS MOISTURE FLOW
ALONG...NORTH...AND A LITTLE WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY ALONG THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...BUT DO EXPECT PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO BE ABLE TO PUSH IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
CWA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S WEDNESDAY...AND MIDDLE 70S THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THE LONGER TERM...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. THIS MAY BRING WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO BRING SOME ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. DUE TO THIS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL. CLOUDS SHOULD STILL BE SOMEWHAT PLENTIFUL WITH THIS
PATTERN...AND THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH REDEVELOPS
OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST
HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW NORMAL...AND FORECAST
LOWS WILL BE AT JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES DUE TO LOW CLOUDINESS AT TIMES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND
PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS. NO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS. WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...MODELS SUGGEST MVFR STRATO-CU CEILINGS AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT AFTER 00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE
PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.