Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 250244
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1044 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016
A cold front will move through the forecast area tonight with a
reinforcing shot of cool air through Midweek. There is a slight
chance of showers late in the week associated with a fast moving
system forecast to move through the area.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A dry air mass remains across the forecast area with just some
high thin clouds ahead of the shortwave trough in the southern
stream over east Texas. The cold front in the north part of the
forecast area at 1000 pm will push south of the area around
200 am. The front will move through the region dry. Increased
mixing over the relatively warm lakes will result in breezy
conditions. The HRRR suggested wind close but just below lake
wind advisory criteria especially on Lake Marion. Mixing in the
boundary layer again tonight will limit net radiational cooling.
Expect overnight lows similar to last night.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A broad upper ridge will build over the Southeast. High pressure
will ridge into the forecast area from the north at the surface. A
cool and dry air mass will build into the region. Slightly below
normal high temperatures are forecast, in the lower to middle 70s.
Overnight lows in the 40s.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper-ridge over the center of the country will promote
northwesterly flow aloft over the southeastern states through
midweek. Surface high pressure will ridge into the area from the
north Wednesday before shifting offshore Thursday. A surface low
over the Great Lakes region early Thursday morning will shift
northeastward toward New England. This system will bring a weak
cold front across the area Thursday night/early Friday. Moisture
will be limited throughout the period, so continued with a dry
forecast except during the Thursday/Friday time frame maintained a
slight chance. More dry high pressure will build in from the west
late Friday into Saturday, with another dry cold front moving into
the area Saturday night/Sunday. More high pressure will build in
from the north Monday. Seasonable or above normal temperatures are
forecast for much of the period.
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Very high confidence for VFR conditions throughout the TAF
A dry cold front has moved into the northern Midlands and will
continue across the forecast from 03z to 06z this evening. Calm
winds will become N/NE with speeds around 5 knots. Observations in
the Upstate and Carolina Piedmont show similar wind speeds. Models
indicate 30 knot NE winds above the surface, around 1000 to 2000
ft. At this time it appears conditions will remain under the 30 kt
LLWS criteria. But LLWS may need to be added to the TAFs if
surface winds go calm later tonight.
Tuesday, mostly clear skies and dry weather will continue. A few
high clouds may continue to stream over the area. Expect NE winds
from 5 to 10 kts throughout the day.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Thursday and
Thursday night as a weak cold front crosses the region.