Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KCAE 031806
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
206 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE HRRR DISPLAYED A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING INTO MAINLY THE
WEST PART OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
CORRECT. A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDINESS THAT HAS
OCCURRED DURING MUCH OF THE DAY FARTHER NORTH. ALSO...AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD OCCUR OVER THIS AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOWN BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ROTATING TOWARD THE AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN IS EXCESSIVE RAIN WITH
A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT NEAR THE UPPER LOW. MID-AFTERNOON SURFACE-
BASED LI/S WERE NEAR -4 IN THE CSRA. SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING AND
COOLING ALOFT MAY LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY
AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING SUPPORTS POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND.
THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ALSO FAVORS HAIL.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BECAUSE OF THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD UPPER
LOW AND INTERACTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...BUT THE CHANCE SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING.

USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE H5 LOW SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. THE MODELS
SHIFT THE UPPER FEATURE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.
EXPECT H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR -12 THURSDAY AND -10 C FRIDAY.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS
BECAUSE OF THE PATTERN. FOLLOWED THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING LINGERING EARLY IN THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BUT THE PATTERN BECOMES FLATTER WITH TIME. H5
TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 WARM TO AROUND -8 FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GENERAL SURFACE RIDGING EARLY...BUT A DIFFUSE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY LINGER. THE MODELS DISPLAY
MORE SURFACE TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE POPS OF 10 TO 40
PERCENT DURING THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MOVE INTO THE FA THIS AFTERNOON BRINING CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED IN THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL GA
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FA
DURING THE PERIOD AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY DECREASING
THE CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH. LOW CIGS
VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE IFR CIGS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SE FLOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING SUFFICIENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FA. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR TAF SITES TO DROP INTO LIFR. VSBY MAY ALSO BE
LIMITED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.