Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 291657
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1257 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE REGION AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ENTER OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND HAS USHERED IN DRIER AND MILDER AIR.
A DRY REINFORCING TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRY ATMOSPHERE
WILL ENSURE FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS WILL DIRECT COOLER
AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA
BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE
AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS...WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE
JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS WE ENTER INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA
UNDER A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH ALLOWING A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN AS WE ENTER INTO THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED GUIDANCE
INDICATES POPS INCREASING TO THE HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT NW THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT NORTH
TONIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH...BUT DIRECTIONS COULD BE VARIABLE AT
TIMES. FEW TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THU NT/FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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