Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 070932
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
432 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND
SHIFT TO THE NE TODAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL USHER IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES
FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE SE CONUS. SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE IN RESPONSE AND SHIFT TO THE
NE. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED NORTH
INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS/SE GA AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SC.
SOME REPORTS OF SLEET COMING IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SC
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP DUE TO
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. RADAR LOOPS AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE SE/E FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF OUR FA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME COOLING
AND SATURATION OF THE COLUMN ACROSS THOSE AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN. NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN TERMS OF THE EXTENT OF
INLAND PUSH OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE PRECIP AMOUNTS. MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. SOIL TEMPS ARE ALSO WARM. SO...ANY SNOW
THAT FALLS WILL MELT WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OR IMPACT.
NO ADVISORY PLANNED FOR WINTER WEATHER. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT DUE TO DEVELOPING LOW OFFSHORE WILL PROMOTE BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY ESPECIALLY E/SE FA...AND WILL MAINTAIN LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR LAKE MARION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS UPPER/SURFACE LOWS SHIFT WELL TO OUR
NE. EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS IN THE EVENING. NEXT UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE E CONUS MON/MON NT. INDICATIONS OF A QUICK
MOVING FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SYSTEM
WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS
OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST. NW FLOW
ALOFT TO MAINTAIN A FEED OF COOL DRY AIR FOR OUR REGION. A
REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TUE/WED. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MIN TEMPS IN THE TEENS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK. FOR
NOW...USED GUIDANCE BLEND...WHICH PROVIDE LOW 20S THU MORNING.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING FRI/SAT. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE
PREMISE FOR SOME UPPER ENERGY AND ANOTHER FRONT LATE FRI INTO
SAT...THOUGH MOISTURE WOULD APPEAR TO BE LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE AS AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS GENERALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR
EASTERN MIDLANDS. LATEST HI-RES MODELS AND GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEP
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR
OGB WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF RAIN THAN THE REST OF
THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY
PREFERRED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION AGAIN BEING AT
OGB WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IN BANDED
PRECIPITATION. DURING THE HEAVIER PERIODS OF RAIN COULD SEE SOME
SNOW MIXING IN SO WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR RASN AT OGB FROM
09Z-13Z. WARM GROUND TEMPS AND ABOVE FREEZING AIR TEMPS SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH IMPACT IF THERE IS A PERIOD OF SNOW. NAM GUIDANCE IS
OUTLIER AND HITS CIGS HARD ALL TERMINALS AND DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR
OF MORE CLUSTERED GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS LOW VFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z OR
SO THEN IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE COASTAL LOW LIFTS
AWAY FROM THE REGION.

NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MON THRU WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ031-
     036>038.

&&

$$


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