Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 270550

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1250 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

Cold tonight and more seasonable as high pressure moves into the
region. Breezy tomorrow as another weak cold front brings
isolated snow showers to the north. Warming trend begins once
again on Tuesday with the chance for rain and snow returning on
Wednesday as low pressure from the great lakes approaches.

Update: No significant changes with this update. The challenge
for Monday will be snow showers with the cold front as well as a
secondary trough behind the front.

Orgnl Disc: Winds will begin to subside tonight
as deep mixing is lost after sunset. It will remain mostly
clear across Downeast tonight with partial clearing across the
north, this will allow temperatures to drop off into the teens
and low 20s. A weak system currently across the upper Great
Lakes will quickly enter Maine during the day on Monday.
Greatest sensible weather impacts with this weak surface
boundary and 500mb vort max will be scattered snow showers
across the North and gusty westerly winds for the remainder of
the region. The intensity of the snow showers depends on the
depth of mixing that is expected to occur tomorrow. Snow squall
index has some high values, but sounding data has some spread on
the mid-level instabilty values. This will impact how high the
instability snow showers will develop. If the GFS is correct,
could have some moderate strength snow showers, but the NAM was
much shallower with the EQL height and will only support weak
snow showers. It will be nice Downeast and Bangor region with
partly cloudy skies and a stiff west wind.

High pressure will briefly build across the region Monday night
into Tuesday, leading to fair weather. A warm front will begin
to lift northward toward the region Tuesday night as low
pressure treks across the Great Lakes. This front will bring
precipitation to the region, moving from south to north, late
Tuesday through Tuesday night, then continuing through
Wednesday. Temperatures will drop enough Tuesday night to allow
most locations away from the coast to see at least a bit of snow
overnight. Any accumulation will be an inch or less, with the
highest amounts across the Saint John Valley. The snow will
change over to rain on Wednesday as temperatures warm into the
40s for most areas.

Widespread precipitation will be ongoing at the start of the
long term as low pressure will be pushing across southern
Quebec/northern New Brunswick/northern Maine. Rain will mix with
and turn over to snow over the North Woods and much of central
and northern Aroostook County Wednesday night while the
remainder of the region will remain warm enough to stay all
rain. The steady precipitation will taper to showers on Thursday
as the aforementioned low moves off to our east. A much colder
airmass will follow and linger through the end of the week.
While the weather will be dry and skies partly to mostly clear,
Friday and Saturday will come as quite a shock after the recent
mild weather. Highs on Friday will top out around 20 across the
north and around 30 Downeast, and Saturday will be a good 5 to
10 degrees colder. Add in a brisk northwest wind, and it`s
definitely going to feel like winter`s made a comeback. The
coldest temperatures will come Friday night, when lows will be
-10 to 0 in the north and 0 to 10 south. We may see a bit of
improvement on Sunday, though expect temperatures will be near
or below seasonal normal.

NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours.
Biggest impact will be gusty westerly winds tomorrow at all TAF
terminals. There could be an isolated snow showers at the
northern TAF terminals during the day tomorrow.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all
terminals 00z to 21z Tue. Ceilings will then lower to MVFR and
eventually IFR/LIFR from south to north as widespread
precipitation, associated with a warm front, spreads across the
region. IFR conditions with occasional LIFR are expected by 09z
Wed and will continue through much of the day. There will be
improvement to MVFR after 00z Thu as widespread precipitation
comes to an end, but occasional IFR will still be possible
through Thursday in scattered rain and snow showers,
particularly at the northern terminals.

NEAR TERM: Gusty west winds will continue after a small
decrease in winds tonight, will allow Small Craft Advisory
conditions to continue over the waters. Seas will remain high
with a strong off shore wind keeping heights around 5 to 8 feet.
No visibility reductions expected.

SHORT TERM: Winds and waves will subside Monday night as high pressure
builds across the waters. As such, small craft conditions will be
possible early in the evening but they will be brief. Winds and seas
will build again on Wednesday with a warm frontal passage. At this
time winds look to be marginal, but seas are expected to exceed 5
feet by Wednesday afternoon. Therefore a Small Craft Advisory for
Hazardous Seas may be needed.

River ice movement has been evident on the Piscataquis
River and its tributaries today, particularly at Blanchard and
Abbot. Waterways are still rising from continuing runoff from the
recent snowmelt and rainfall, and this trend will continue
overnight. Additional ice movement and ice break up will be possible
along the Piscataquis, the lower Penobscot, and their tributaries
until the rivers have crested and begin to recede. This likely won`t
happen until Monday morning at the earliest. Have therefore opted to
extend the Flood Watch until 7 am Monday.

ME...Flood Watch until 7 AM EST this morning for MEZ010-011-015>017-
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for

Near Term...VJN/MCW
Short Term...Hastings
Long Term...Hastings
Hydrology...hastings is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.