Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 240413
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1213 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in place over the region overnight. A
cold front will cross the region Sunday afternoon and evening
and stall over the region Sunday night. The front will then
lift back north across all of the region on Monday as a warm
front.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12am Update...Reduced highs for Sunday slightly. Reduced pops
for Sunday afternoon and went with just isolated showers and
thunderstorms. While there is CAPE and a cold front trigger,
CIN is significant and have low confidence in the development of
convection.

Previous Discussion...
Skies will remain mclr across the Rgn going into the eve hrs
with hi/mid cldnss from Cntrl QB movg into the N hlf of the FA
and low cldnss and patchy fog movg onshore to Downeast areas
from the Gulf of ME both late tngt. Ovrngt lows will be quite
mild, despite a sig drop from this aftn`s hi temps due to how
unseasonably warm hi temps were tdy.

Sun will begin ptly to msly sunny across the Rgn aft early morn
patchy fog dissipates across Downeast and E Cntrl ptns of the
FA. A weak backdoor cold front from Cntrl QB will move Swrd into
Nrn ptns of the area by mid aftn working Swrd to the coast by
ovrngt as an upper lvl disturbance works ESE ovr the Rgn. With
sfc dwpts surging well into the 60s ahead of this front, there
will be enough instability for isold to sct tstms mainly along
the Ern ME/NB border trailing SW into interior Downeast areas at
cnvctv initiation tm with fcst max SREF SBCAPEs are apchg 1000
J/Kg ovr these areas attm. Given only modest mid lvl lapse
rates, we will hold off on enhanced tstm wording attm, although
it should be noted that there is some mid to upper lvl shear as
indicative of of 25 to 35 kt of 0-6Km bulk shear.

Prior to tstm development, there should be ample sunshine, spcly
ovr Cntrl and interior Downeast areas when combined with
downslope winds and record fcst aftn max 925mb of mid 20s deg C,
hi temps will likely apch 90 deg ovr low trrn lctns there and
well in the 80s ovr low trrn lctns to the N. Coastal Downeast
lctns will likely be tempered by a shallow sea breeze
circulation.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The summerlike conditions will continue through early next week
as a large upper ridge remains parked to to our south and west.
A frontal boundary will waver across the state through the
period, but don`t expect much more than a few showers or
thunderstorms from this each afternoon. Temperatures will be
very mild, with daytime highs reaching well into the 70s and
80s. Tuesday will be the warmest day, with some locations
approaching 90. Dewpoints will be on the rise as well, so nights
will be on the muggy side.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
After another muggy night Tuesday, showers and a few
thunderstorms are possible Wednesday as a cold front approaches
from the west. This front will cross the area Wednesday night
into Thursday, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass for later
next week. High pressure will briefly build over the area later
Thursday through Friday, but showers will threaten again
Saturday as the upper trough swings across the area. Hurricane
Maria looks to stay well to our south Thursday and Friday,
though it may produce long-period swell along the coast.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR is xpctd at the TAF sites tngt thru Sun.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions will prevail through the daylight
hours, but IFR/LIFR will be possible in patchy fog 00z-13z each
day. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday and
Tuesday afternoons, but the better chance for precipitation and
possible lowered vis/ceilings will be after 16z Wed as a cold
front approaches from the west.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: We finally dropped the SCA for seas ovr our outer MZs
with wv hts at the Ern ME Shelf and Jonesport Buoys msly at or
below 5 ft, with the trend xpctd to cont to subside a little
more ovr the next 6 hrs. We kept close to WW3 wv guidance for
fcst wv hts for this ptn of the fcst with primary wv pds varying
from 8 to 10 sec from residual swell energy from Jose to 12 to
16 sec from long distance swell radiating from Maria. ST cld cvr
and areas of marine fog will likely work back toward the coast
ovrngt and then back offshore during the late morn and aftn hrs.

Lastly, we will likely need another paddle risk beach statement
for area beaches for Sun due to the unseasonably warm air temps
in close proximity to near shore waters.

SHORT TERM: Seas will build to 4 to 6 feet early next week, so a Small
Craft Advisory for hazardous seas may be needed. Otherwise, the only
concern will be patchy fog which will reduce visibility to 1-3SM at
times.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$

Near Term...Foisy/VJN/MCW
Short Term...Hastings
Long Term...Hastings
Aviation...Foisy/VJN/MCW/Hastings
Marine...Foisy/VJN/MCW/Hastings



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