Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 250339
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1139 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build north of the area through Thursday.
Low pressure will approach from the southwest Thursday afternoon
and track across the Gulf of Maine on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
11:30 PM Update...Modified cloud cover a bit to add more clouds
Downeast and decrease clouds in central areas early in the
overnight period. Also, lowered temps in central areas where
clearer skies have allowed the air to cool a bit faster.
Otherwise, no major changes this hour.

630 PM update...No significant changes were needed with this
update. Seeing partly to mostly cloudy skies across much of our
forecast area at this hour, along with a few light sprinkles
over some of the higher terrain of the North Woods. Overall the
forecast has this covered, so have only made tweaks to temps,
winds, sky, and PoPs to match current trends.

Previous discussion...High pressure will slowly build in from
the northeast this evening and will bring partial clearing. The
high will move away later tonight and at the same time low
pressure will approach from the southwest. This will cause
clouds to thicken again by Thursday Morning and continue to
thicken during the day. Expect showers to spread into the
southwestern corner of the region by late in the Afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The models are in good agreement through the period. An
occluded frontal system with a low over southern PA, with the
front wrapped around the low across central Maine to a triple
point in the northern Gulf of Maine will be the primary weather
producer through the period. The GFS and GEM suggest a secondary
low over Cape Cod. By Friday morning the parent low moves to
Cape Cod, the secondary low moves east to southwest Nova Scotia.
Friday evening the parent low track east along the Downeast
coast, to southwest Nova Scotia. Saturday morning the occlusion
clears the area and higher pressure build in through the end of
the period.

Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor
differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the
coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used
GFS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak high pressure ridge will be in place over the area at the
start of the period. A low northwest of Lake Superior and its
associated front will be the next weather system to affect our
area. Sunday morning the cold front associated with the low
extends from southern James Bay through Lake Huron. The warm
front extends southeast from James Bay into New Brunswick.
Sunday evening all three models are indicating a second low
forming along the coast Delmarva/ NJ. Monday morning the low
along the coast moves north to Cape Cod bring warm frontal type
weather into southern Maine. Monday evening the models shows
these two system combining into one over Maine. The coastal low
in the northern Gulf of Maine south of Bar Harbor. The cold
front extending south along the US Coast. The parent low now
stationary southwest of James Bay, with a co-located upper level
Low height center. Tuesday morning the GFS and GEM move the low
from the Gulf of Maine to northeast New Brunswick, northern
Maine will remain in wrap around precipitation, southern Maine
will clear out as the cold front moves through. Wrap around
showers will persist across northern Maine through the end of
the period, as the slowly filling upper low over Canada drifts
southeast central Quebec.

Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models,
however the solution leans more towards the GFS solution. Used
NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor
tool.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions tonight into Thursday
afternoon. MVFR/IFR conditions expected in KBGR and KBHB by late
afternoon.


SHORT TERM: LMVFR to IFR conditions at all sites from the start
of the period to Saturday morning. Clearing will begin at FVE
and CAR early Saturday morning as a low moves east into Nova
Scotia. Clearing will spreading to PQI and HUL before sunrise.
VFR conditions will further spread to BGR and BHB shortly after
sunrise Saturday. VFR conditions will persist at all sites
through Sunday morning. FVE and CAR will be MVFR in scattered
showers Sunday. MVFR will spread to PQI and HUL Sunday
afternoon, and to BGR and BHB Sunday night as the next front
moves in from the west. A warm front will move into central
Maine Monday morning will remain in the area through the end of
the period. IFR conditions Monday morning through the end of the
period in low ceilings and light rain.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM to populate the wind grids and will
not make any adjustment to model winds with wind direction out
of northeast Thursday. For Waves: With winds remaining below 10
knots into this evening expect primary wave system to be south
southeast swell around 3 feet/7 seconds. With northeast wind
increasing Thursday expect northeasterly wind wind to become the
primary wave system by late in the day. Will use the Nearshore
Wave Prediction System to populate wave grids.


SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are forecasted to be above SCA
criteria from Thursday evening to Friday afternoon. Winds will
subside below SCA, however seas will remain above 5 ft through
most of the day Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High astronomical tides will occur from Thursday night through
Memorial day weekend. Current predictions have water levels
getting up to right around HAT levels at Bar Harbor and Eastport
gauges. New Total Water Level guidance keeps most areas below
minor flooding levels, but could have some minor splash over
Thursday night. Night shift will have to evaluate the need for
a coastal flood statement or not.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone/Dumont
Short Term...Norton
Long Term...Norton
Aviation...Mignone/Dumont/Norton
Marine...Mignone/Dumont/Norton
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Mignone



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