Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 290807
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
307 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
STUBBORN BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN
NORTHERN ZONES AS STREAMERS ADVECT ACROSS THE ALLAGASH FROM THE ST
LAWRENCE TOWARDS HOULTON. THESE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IT WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES...BUT SOME THIN CUMULUS WILL FORM IN NORTHERN ZONES WITH
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUD COVER. THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL LIMIT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 20F NORTH AND THE MID 20S IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY
DROP OFF SATURDAY EVENING. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL OCCUR IN THE
EVENING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...OVERRUNNING CLOUDINESS
WILL THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WARM TEMPERATURES. THERE
WILL BE A RATHER STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OF
OVER 50 KT BY LATER IN THE NIGHT. WARM FRONTAL PRECIP WILL BREAK
OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN ZONES. FOLLOWING THE
GFS...WILL GO WITH OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF TOWARDS THE
SAINT JOHN VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. MEASURABLE SNOW WILL ONLY BE A FACTOR IN THE CROWN OF
MAINE. JUST NORTH OF BANGOR...FOR SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND THE
SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF PENOBSCOT COUNTIES...THE CONCERN BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AS COLD AIR HANGS ON
IN THE USUAL CORRIDOR FROM DEXTER TOWARDS MILLINOCKET. FURTHER
SOUTH...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
NONETHELESS...THE COLD SURFACES AND DRIZZLE COULD STILL CAUSE
PROBLEMS FOR BANGOR AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY FOR A VERY BRIEF
WINDOW. THE SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR WILL ALSO CAUSE AREAS OF FOG
IN UPSLOPE AREAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS ADVECTING
NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. &&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM NEAR JAMES BAY AND INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MAINE. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND THE
KATAHDIN REGION NORTH WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A COUPLE OF INCHES
OF SNOW IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS THAT THERE COULD BE A CHANGEOVER TO
A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN A FEW SPOTS MID-LATE MORNING
SUNDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD PRETTY QUICKLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AS
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. THE COLD
FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT
WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY FALL
FROM MID-LATE MORNING ON.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE MON NIGHT WITH SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL IN A
FEW SPOTS. A SHARPLY COLDER AIR MASS WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -20C OR
LOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY 12Z TUE. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS
AND WIND WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING NEARLY AS COLD AS THE AIR
MASS WOULD SUPPORT UNDER A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND REGIME. THE
STRONGEST SFC HIGH SO FAR THIS WINTER BUILDS OVERHEAD TUESDAY
MAKING FOR A DRY AND COD DAY. THE HIGH QUICKLY EXITS INTO THE
MARITIMES TUE NIGHT WITH A RAPID TRANSITION INTO A STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. LOW TEMPS IN MOST AREAS WILL BE REALIZED
DURING THE EVENING WITH TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF AND LIKELY RISE SOME
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST RAPIDLY
WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE WITH SNOW TO CHANGE TO
RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK TOWARD THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR OUTSIDE OF EARLY AM SNOW SHOWERS AT HUL AND SOME
MVFR CIGS FROM HUL NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS RETURN
LATER TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS...FOLLOWED BY IFR IN SNOW FROM PQI
NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM: A PERIOD OF IFR LIKELY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS SUN
MORNING IN SNOW WITH MVFR DOWN EAST. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE FOR A
TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IFR POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY IN
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG. MOSTLY MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MON
EVENING DOWN EAST...BUT MVFR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REACH SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE GALE WATCH FOR SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AS THERE WILL
BE A STRONG JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AFTER A
PERIOD OF GALES A SCA WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED INTO TUE MORNING.
&&

.CLIMATE...AN ADDITIONAL 0.2" OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT CARIBOU
YESTERDAY WHICH PUSHED THE MONTHLY TOTAL TO 28.1". THIS NOW TIES
WITH 1986 FOR THE 3RD SNOWIEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB


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