Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 220521
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1221 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1215AM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A NORLUN TYPE SETUP FOR
THE SW AND DOWNEAST REGION W/SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
AS WELL.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF OF MAINE BACK INTO WESTERN MAINE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE WHICH WILL HELP SUPPORT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE LATEST 12Z
RUN OF THE NAM WAS HANDLING THIS SETUP WELL SHOWING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP TO BREAK OUT ACROSS DOWNEAST AND SW MAINE AND THEN SPREAD
NNE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE
CONCENTRATED FROM THE COAST NNW INTO THE THE MT. KATAHDIN AND
MILLINOCKET REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AND
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE LIGHT
PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF NNW MAINE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. ATTM, CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON PLACEMENT AND PRECIP CHANCES. THE 1830Z SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
ENHANCED/COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE GRADUALLY
EXPANDING BACK TO THE W TOWARD THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF
INVERTED TROF. SNOW WILL ALIGN ALONG THIS TROF OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY. DECIDED TO INCREASE THE PRECIP CHANCES UP TO 40% ACROSS
THE DOWNEAST COAST AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER NORTH FOR NOW.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH AT BEST
AND MAINLY OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED BY THE LATER SHIFTS TO SEE IF THE PRECIP SHIELD EXPANDS
FURTHER NORTH AND INTENSIFIES.

ANOTHER CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LLVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 900MBS AND
A LIGHT SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. ANY ICING THREAT ATTM WILL
BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY WERE TODAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
SOME LIGHT SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE COASTAL AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AS INVERTED TROUGH WEAKENS OFF-SHORE. WEAK COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL WEAKEN BY
LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY GENERATING A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION CHRISTMAS EVE INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY AS THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWARD... PASSING TO THE EAST OF JAMES BAY THURSDAY. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS
APPROACH AND BLEND ECMWF AND GFS THROUGH THIS PERIOD FOR POP AND
QPF. USED BURLINGTON CLOUD TOOL FOR SKIES. THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. FOR SUSTAINED WINDS USED THE
MOSG25.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS COASTAL AND
CENTRAL AREAS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH AS
POCKETS OF COLD AIR PERSIST NEAR THE SURFACE. ALL PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIQUID BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CHRISTMAS EVE AND CROSS THE AREA
LATE CHRISTMAS DAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY WITH REINFORCING
COLD AIR MOVING IN SUNDAY. FOR THIS PERIOD HAVE USED THE SUPER
BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH POCKETS OF IFR
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
SNOW AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS TOWARD MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LIMITS INTO
MONDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
LOWERING VSBYS AT TIMES TO LESS THAN 3 NM.

SHORT TERM: WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. HAVE ADJUSTED
THE SUPER BLEND WINDS HIGHER THURSDAY. FOR WAVES: LONG FETCH
DEVELOPS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AND EXTENDS FROM COAST TO
APPROXIMATELY 60 NM TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO 15
FEET/9-11 SECONDS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LARGE LONG PERIOD WAVES ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FETCH LATER THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE NEAR SHORE WAVE
MODEL RUN ON FORECASTER WINDS AND WAVE WATCH III BOUNDARY
CONDITIONS THROUGH 25TH/0600Z THEN TRANSITION TO THE WNA/4.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER SCENARIO EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE(WEDNESDAY) INTO CHRISTMAS
DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL W/LOW PRES FORECAST TO
PASS BY TO OUR WEST. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE INCLUDING THE PENOBSCOT AND ST. CROIX BASINS W/1-2
INCHES OF RAINFALL. ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS, RAINFALL OF
1+ INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF MELTING SNOW, HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WINDS WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL RUNOFF AND RISES ON
THE RIVERS. ANY ICE WILL LIKELY MELT/BREAKUP AND MOVE. THE ICE JAM
ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER IS A CONCERN AS IT COULD BREAK UP AND MOVE
W/THE ABOVE SCENARIO EXPECTED.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CONCERN OVER RELATIVELY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE (PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE) HIGH TIDE AT BAR HARBOR WILL OCCUR APPROXIMATELY 25TH/0530Z
(11.76 FT MLLW)... 25TH/1800Z (12.73 FT MLLW) AND 26/0624Z (11.80
FT). LATEST WAVE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FETCH... ON 24TH TO
25... EXTENDING FROM COAST TO 600 NM TO SOUTH. LATEST WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 15 FEET AND
PERIODS RANGING FROM 9 TO 11 SECONDS DURING THESE HIGH TIDES.
WAVE HEIGHTS AND LONG PERIODS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR MINOR
OVERTOPPING ISSUES. ALSO WILL STRONG ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED AND
ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE SOME FLOODING ISSUES STILL POSSIBLE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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