Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 210102
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
902 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach tonight and cross the area on Friday.
High pressure will build over the region Saturday into Sunday. Low
pressure will approach on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
9:02 PM Update...Steep lapse rates and about 35 knots of 0-6KM
shear produced an area of strong to severe thunderstorms across
central portions of the CWA early this evening. There were a few
reports of wind damage in Penobscot County, and one report of
quarter sized hail in Piscataquis County. Cooling associated
with the loss of daytime heating has caused the activity to
diminish in intensity over the past hour, but there are still
thunderstorms from Aroostook County south into southern
Penobscot County. Although the severe threat is now diminishing,
a few of the stronger cores could continue to produce small
hail, and as they collapse some gusty wind over the next 1-2
hours. Have updated mainly the weather and PoP grids to account
for the expected conditions.

Previous discussion... A few isolated showers
and thunderstorms have developed across the northern Maine
woods as of late this afternoon in response to a mid level short
wave approaching from the west. Further south, across central
and down east Maine, a nearly stationary frontal boundary is
expected to be the focus of another area of convective activity
through early this evening. Will continue to mention gusty winds
and small hail through early this evening with any
thunderstorms, otherwise things should be on the wane after
sunset with partly cloudy skies overnight. A bit of patchy fog
is possible late tonight with lows again only expected to be in
the lower 60s across much of the area.

The attention on Friday turns to a cold front approaching from
Quebec. Models in good agreement regarding the timing of the
front across the St John Valley shortly after sunrise Friday
and then into down east Maine by early afternoon. Have went
likely pops for showers across the north on friday as model
consensus supports measurable rainfall across the area;
however, pops will drop off pretty sharply across down east
Maine as the best moisture in association with the front
remains to the north and east. Have also mentioned scattered
thunder across northern and central areas until the front
crosses. Will not mention any enhanced wording at this time,
but think the best chance for any stronger storms would be from
south of Houlton through the central highlands and through
interior portions of down east Maine, coinciding with the later
frontal passage timing. Further north, the earlier timing of
the front will likely preclude any stronger storms from
developing. Much drier air will begin to advect into the area
behind the front with dew points dropping into the 50s with the
frontal passage. High temperatures on Friday will be warmest
across central and down east, with highs in the mid 80s
expected. Across the north, highs will only range from the mid
to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will be pushing offshore Friday evening. Any
lingering showers Downeast should dissipate early in the
evening. A weak secondary front across the north may produce
some spotty showers over the far northwest early in the evening.
Otherwise, Friday night should be partly cloudy over the area.
High pressure will build down from the northwest on Saturday
bringing a mostly sunny day. The air will be cooler and drier
than recent days, especially across the north. High pressure
over the north will maintain mostly clear and dry weather
Saturday night into Sunday across central and northern areas. A
broad area of low pressure sliding east out of a longwave trough
over the Great Lakes will approach on Sunday. This will bring
increasing clouds to Downeast areas with a chance for some
showers late. Currently there are big model differences with the
NAM keeping the whole area dry on Sunday but the GFS bringing
moisture and some rain Downeast on Sunday. For now will just
have a slight chance of showers Downeast Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure will approach Sunday night into Monday and track south
of the area Monday night into Tuesday. The GFS digs a strong trough
into the east with secondary low pressure forming off the Mid-
Atlantic coast Monday night with rain likely across the area Monday
into Tuesday. However, the GFS has been the northern most solution
with this storm. The ECMWF and Canadian have favored the storm
system tracking further south and the area remaining mostly dry
early next week. Will likely have to keep at least low chance for
some rain Monday into Tuesday, mostly across the Downeast area. The
system should slide east and away during the mid-week period
allowing high pressure to bring a return of dry weather Wednesday
into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally VFR overnight. An isolated thunderstorm is
possible until around 03Z with local IFR conditions and gusty
wind. A cold front will cross the region from north to south on
Friday. The front will be accompanied by showers and sct
thunderstorms, mainly KHUL north through early afternoon. Any
heavier activity could result in locally brief sub VFR
conditions, otherwise VFR the majority of the time. Winds will
become northwest from north to south with the passage of the
front on Friday.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area Friday
night through Sunday. Conditions may lower to MVFR Downeast
Sunday night, then lower to MVFR across the remainder of the
area Monday with the possible exception of the far north.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft
advisory levels through Friday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
Friday night through Sunday. Winds should remain below SCA on
Monday. Some rain is possible on Monday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Friday through Friday
     evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/Duda
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...CB/Duda/Bloomer
Marine...CB/Duda/Bloomer


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