Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 260857
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
457 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region this afternoon. High pressure
will build across the region Saturday then move to the east
Sunday. Another cold front will approach the area Sunday night.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front will cross the region today with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms in advance of the front. The cold front will
then exit the Downeast coast early tonight. High pressure will
build east toward the region later tonight. Cloud cover will
decrease early tonight, with mostly clear skies overnight. High
temperatures today will generally range from the lower to mid 80s
across the forecast area, with slightly cooler temperatures along
the Downeast coast. Low temperatures tonight will range from the
lower to mid 50s north, to the upper 50s to around 60 Downeast.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Strong high pressure will build in from the west during the day
Saturday. This system is expected to crest over the region early
Saturday evening then move to the east into the Atlantic late
Saturday night and during Sunday. This pattern will bring mostly
dry conditions to the area into Sunday. A cold front is then
expected to approach from the west later Sunday which is expected
to introduce showers into the region.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front is expected to move across the region late Sunday
night and into the day Monday bringing showers to the area. High
pressure will then move in from the west Monday night and crest
over the state Tuesday morning. Another cold front is expected to
approach from the west during the day Tuesday and cross the region
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning which is expected to
result in showers. Cooler air with then move in behind this front
later Wednesday into Thursday.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Variable conditions, ranging from VFR to LIFR, will
occur across the region early this morning. Conditions will
improve to VFR levels later this morning. Variable conditions are
possible again this afternoon with any showers or thunderstorms.
VFR conditions are expected tonight.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Saturday into Sunday
morning. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible late Sunday into Monday
morning. VFR conditions are expected late Monday into Tuesday.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas remains in
effect for much of the waters, with the exception of the
intracoastal waters, into this afternoon. Visibilities will be
reduced in areas of fog and showers today, could also have an
isolated thunderstorm this afternoon. Conditions are expected to
be below small craft advisory levels tonight.

SHORT TERM: For the sustained winds Saturday and Sunday will
initialize the grids with the NAM12 then lower the model winds by
10 percent due to relatively cold sea surface temperature. Will
transition to the Superblend winds late Sunday. For Waves: Expect
wind wave to continue to dominate through Monday with a secondary
southeasterly long period wave system (1 foot/14 seconds). Gaston
is expected to become a hurricane over the Weekend in the
Atlantic. Expect long period swell from this system to build to
around 4 feet/13-14 seconds late Monday into Tuesday as Gaston
moves well to the east over the Atlantic. Will use the Near Shore
Wave Model (NWPS) to populate the wave grids. Will lower NWPS wave
heights by 1 foot Saturday and Sunday as boundary conditions
appear a little high.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 2 PM EDT this
     afternoon for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Norcross
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...Norcross/Mignone
Marine...Norcross/Mignone


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