Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 250715
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
315 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER
LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COOL UNSETTLED PTRN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN US AND
CANADA... SYSTEM THAT HAS AFFECTED OUR REGION W/ RAIN/SNOW LAST
SEVERAL DYS HAS FINALLY MOVD OUT OF THE PICTURE ERLY THIS AM AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W OF THE AREA BEGINS BUILDING EWRD. THIS
RIDGE WILL ALLOW COOL BUT DRIER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY
AND LAST THRU TNGT THO HIGH CLDS FROM THE NXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY
BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY LATE TNGT/ERLY SAT AS THE NXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE W. ST/SC ACROSS REGION SHOULD
DISSIPATE SRN AREAS THIS AM W/ DOWNSLOPING WNDS AND THEN ACROSS
THE N LATER THIS AFTN. CLR TO P/C SKIES ERLY TNGT WILL THEN GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLDS LATE. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
RECOVERY IN TEMPS TODAY - STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO FALL A FEW DEGREES
SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS W/ MID TO UPPER 40S N AND LOWER TO MID 50S
S. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO NR 30 ACROSS THE N TNGT AND INTO THE
LOWER/MID 30S S...

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BE A WET ONE AS A UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SLOWLY CROSS NEW ENGLAND TO
BECOME CUT OFF SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. AS SUCH, EXPECT PERIODS OF
RAIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF
AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO MIX WITH
AND/OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE STATE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A HOULTON TO GREENVILLE LINE. EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL
SEE AN INCH AT MOST, THOUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST MAY RECEIVE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF WET SNOW. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RAINY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM,
THOUGH IT IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THE MID-WEEK REPRIEVE FROM THE
RAIN MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUT OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA THROUGH MONDAY, SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM
EASTERN CANADA TUESDAY, BRINGING THE SHOWERS TO AN END. HAVE NOTED
THAT THE 00Z/25 GFS AND THE 12Z/24 ECMWF BOTH KEEP THIS FEATURE
PARKED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LIMITING THE
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS MEANS
WE COULD SEE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
SHOWERS RETURNING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AS
WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: DRIER AIR GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE REGION SHOULD
RESULT IN IMPROVING CONDS LATER TNGT/FRI AM ACROSS ALL OUR TAF
SITES. EXPECT VFR CONDS ALL TAF SITES BY MID FRI AFTN W/ VFR CONDS
THEN EXPECTED THRU FRI NGT...

SHORT TERM: SATURDAY WILL SEE ALL SITES UNDER VFR CONDITIONS WITH
RAIN SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER, MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THESE SPOTS AS WELL AS THE RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX WITH
AND/OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR A TIME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS, BUT KFVE/KCAR/KPQI WILL REMAIN MVFR
RIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AND ALL
SITES BECOMING VFR BY 12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL DROP THE SCA W/ THIS PCKG... WNDS/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU TNGT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVR THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM CAPE COD TO SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KHW/HASTINGS
MARINE...KHW/HASTINGS









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