Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 211959
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
359 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT
RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL BE MSLY CONCENTRATED OVR SE AND FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA TNGT. MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE 12Z NAM...
SREF AND GFS ENSM BRING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RNFL TO FAR SE
WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH SIG RNFL REACHING FAR SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
OVRNGT (BEGINNING MID TO LATE EVE) WITH THE OPEN ATLC SFC LOW MOVG
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...WHILE OPNL 12Z GFS ...ECMWF AND CAN MODELS ONLY
GRAZE WASHINGTON COUNTY. FOR NOW WE TRY TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS OF MODELS...REALIZING THAT WE MAY INCUR
SIG RNFL ERRORS OVR THE SE HLF OF THE FA IF EITHER OF THE TWO
SCENARIOS ARE CORRECT.

OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE APPEARED TO BACK OFF OF SIG COLD FRONTAL
SHWR FROM INVADING MUCH OF NW ME PRIOR TO ERLY MON MORN...WITH
SHWRS SPREADING EWRD ACROSS THE REST OF NRN ME MON MORN INTO ERLY
AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...SOME PTNS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FA MAY NOT
EXPERIENCE MUCH IN THE RNFL BEFORE A COLD FRONT DRIES THE REGION
OUT BY LATER MON AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD TNGT IN SRLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN COOLER ON MON...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW
HLF OF THE FA WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE AN EARLIER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERIOD BEGINNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH WEST TO NW FLOW TAKING
OVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MINUS THE COAST. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE OF
A ISOLATED SHOWER TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOWER 60S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS WITH MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING
DRY AIR BUILDING IN. THIS COUPLED WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF WILL ALLOW
FOR LOWS TO GENERALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH
AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS
HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. A
BIT OF RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WITH WIND
BECOMING WEST TO SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONE WORD DESCRIBES THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WOW!
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 590 DCM
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. AT MID WEEK TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY SUNDAY.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH TEMPS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BRING SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY
LOWERING TO MVFR CLGS FROM THE S LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE DOWNEAST
SITES ARE HANGING ON TO LOW MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO LOWER
OVRNGT TO IFR/LIFR IN BKN-OVC ST FROM S TO N. SHWRS COULD ALSO
REDUCE VSBYS TO THE 3 TO 5 NM RANGE ATTMS OVRGNT. CONDITIONS THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEGINNING OVR
WRN DOWNEAST PTNS ERLY MON MORN THEN PROGRESSING TO FAR NRN TAF
SITES BY ERLY AFTN.

SHORT TERM: EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE WATERS WILL BE BUILDING SWELL
FROM A LOW MOVG NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA
BY MON MORN. WV HTS SHOULD MAX OUT DURG MON AFTN BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AFTWRDS. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS
FOR ALL OF MZS BEGINNING 12Z MON...CONTG AT LEAST TIL 12Z TUE. WE
ARE A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HI SURF CONDITIONS IN THE MON AFTN TM
FRAME AS OPEN OCEAN WV HTS REACH CLOSE TO 10 FT...BUT THE FACT THAT
THE SWELL PD IS ARND 10 SEC RATHER THAN 15 SEC...AND THE PD OF
HIGHEST WVS ONLY LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HRS OFF OF HIGH TIDE...WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGH SURF HDLNS ATTM. OTHERWISE...VSBYS REDUCED
BY MARINE FOG AND GENERAL RNFL...SPCLY LATER TNGT OVR MZ050 IS A
SECONDARY CONCERN.

SHORT TERM: SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 7 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL COMING FROM A SUBTROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE MOVING NE TONIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/JORDAN
MARINE...VJN/JORDAN










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