Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 061734
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
134 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TODAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT AS FAR SOUTH AS BANGOR AT THIS
HOUR. DOWNEAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S AND SHOULD GO UP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS
TO SKY COVER AND TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. EXPECT RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING TO DIMINISH SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE, AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NEAR TERM MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BE SET UP OVER THE AREA. A BROAD AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE OVER ERN QUEBEC... AROUND
THIS UPPER LOW. A LOW SE OF JAMES BAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDING TO LAKE HURON. A COLD CORE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF
NEW JERSEY...SECOND LOW OVER ERN NOVA SCOTIA...WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE SRN ATLANTIC. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILT INTO MAINE AT THE SURFACE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS WRN MAINE SAT EVNG...AND BY SUN MRNG THE LOW WILL MOVE
SE FROM JAMES BAY TO SRN QUEBEC. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK.

LOADED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.
LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. USED THE WINDGUST
BY FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A COLD CORE LOW OVER ERN QUEBEC WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THURS MRNG PRODUCING SCT SHWRS FOR NRN
AND CNTRL MAINE. THE LOW WILL FINALLY DRIFT EAST EARLY THURS AND
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. A NEW LOW MOVING ACROSS
SRN CANADA INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION FRI EVNG...ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE EARLY SAT MRNG...AND INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.
LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. USED THE WINDGUST
BY FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KBGR/KBHB
LATE TONIGHT WITH LCL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. |

SHORT TERM:
VFR CONDITIONS SAT...WITH WIDELY SCT SHOWERS FOR BGR AND BHB.
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH DECREASING CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY
REMAINING ABOVE 3KFT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL TO MVFR IN SHOWERS SUN MRNG...THEN TO IFR CONDITIONS SUN
AFTERNOON. BACK TO MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY MON MNRG...THEN VFR MON
AFTERNOON/EVNG.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MAINLY FOR SEAS. HAVE CANCELLED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH SEAS MAY REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: A SCA FOR SEAS MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME WNDS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 20S WITH SEAS RUNNING AROUND 6 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME MINOR SPLASH OVER IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT AND NEAR THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TD/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...TD/HASTINGS/NORTON
MARINE...TD/HASTINGS/NORTON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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