Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 170856
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
356 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

Tranquil, dry weather under sunny skies and light northerly wind
will be in store for South Texas today. Notably dry air remains
across the region, with PWAT values less than the 25th percentile
(0.4 inches). After a chilly start to the morning, clear skies
with weak winds will bring afternoon temperatures to a few
degrees warmer today than yesterday (highs low 80s). Weak ridging
aloft will build over the region into the mid week. A weak onshore
flow will begin developing across the region Wednesday, and
surface/low level moisture will slowly begin to creep back over
the coastal waters and along the coast. A slow warming trend will
begin to develop, with lows tonight still well below normal (low
to mid 50s), but a few degrees warmer, and temperatures Wednesday
rising back into the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...

A return flow pattern will develop early in the fcst pd and then
persist through Sunday morning.  An initial surge of moisture has
been fcst quite well by the models and will commence by daybreak
Thursday.  Isolated to scattered showers will develop over the
waters and push ashore across portions of the Coastal Bend Thursday
morning.  This surge of moisture will be aided in part by an
approaching shortwave trough axis moving through northern Mexico and
TX.  Moisture advection, boundary layer convergence (strongest over
the Coastal Bend with a seabreeze enhancement), and daytime heating
with no cap in place will lead to isolated to scattered convection
each day through Saturday.  The models have now come into much
better agreement with the second much strong shortwave diving out of
the Rockies Saturday night into Sunday.  A much more progressive and
faster system is now being advertised by the 00Z guidance.  This
will translate into a quick shot of pcpn during the first half of
Sunday along and ahead of the trough axis and associated cold front.
Rapid clearing is expected behind the front as strong subsidence
from NVA takes hold over the CWA.  Cool and dry fall conditions will
then prevail through early next week as offshore flow and ridging at
all levels persist.

Long moderate to strong easterly fetch across the Gulf will once
again lead to several days of minor coastal flooding through
Saturday.  ESTOFS/P-ETSS guidance has been consistent in showing
these higher water levels over the past few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    81  57  84  67  84  /   0   0  10  20  30
Victoria          80  52  84  63  85  /   0   0   0  10  30
Laredo            81  56  85  64  86  /   0   0   0   0  10
Alice             83  53  86  63  86  /   0   0   0  10  20
Rockport          81  64  84  70  84  /   0   0  10  20  30
Cotulla           80  52  84  61  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
Kingsville        84  54  87  64  87  /   0   0   0  10  30
Navy Corpus       82  68  85  72  85  /   0   0  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

LB/84...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM



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