Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 240546
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1246 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CIRRUS DECK OVERHEAD FROM EARLIER CONVECTION NORTH. HAVE SEEN A
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP CLOSE TO VCT TONIGHT...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN
BRIEF AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITE. CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR
TCU...BUT CHANCE IS VERY SMALL AT THIS TIME. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
LIGHT FOG ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING...BUT WOULD BE BRIEF. SHOULD SEE
A VFR DAY TOMORROW AFTER ANY MORNING FOG CLEARS...ALSO EXPECT
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED A FAIRLY DRY ENVIRONMENT
WITH PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES ALONG WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. RADAR
INDICATED A COUPLE OF WEAK SHRA`S MOVG W ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. THE
ISOLD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HR OR SO
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT ISOLD SHRAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER THE GULF WATERS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
THE STRONGEST ALONG WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT DUE TO SFC/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LITTLE WIND.
AM NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BUT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
BRIEFLY HAVE VSBYS DROP TO LESS THAN 1 MILE AROUND SUNRISE.
OVERALL...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...SEA BREEZE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER SOUTH TEXAS HAS
BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FOG/BR TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT AND HAVE RETAINED THE MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT ALI/CRP/VCT
MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LRD WILL
REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY. MID LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TOO MENTION
IN THE TAFS ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT
/THOUGH DECENT CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRESENT AT TIMES JUST TO OUR
NE/. TUTT LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL GULF IS BEGINNING TO SHEAR APART
WITH MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PROG TO SLIDE SW ACROSS THE WEST GULF
AND OVER DEEP S TX. DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO
TONIGHT AND COMBINATION OF LIGHT WIND FIELD...ABOVE NORMAL
PARTICULATE MATTER...AND SAID DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG/HAZE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
LIGHT LANDBREEZE SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST
WHICH SHOULD AID IN MIN TEMPS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
THIS MORNING. A SLIGHT SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROG TO ARRIVE
THURSDAY ALONG WITH APPROACH OF SHEAR AXIS /THOUGH AXIS SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA/. COMBINATION OF THESE
FACTORS ALONG WITH ENHANCED MORNING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LANDBREEZE SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MARINE AREAS AND IMMEDIATE COAST THURSDAY
MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCES WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES. ANY CONVECTION PRESENT BY LATE AFTERNOON
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ONSET
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY/S VALUES WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS
FOR FRI MORNING.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A STRONG BROAD SUBTROPICAL
RDG AXIS CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS RGN WL REMAIN IN FIRM
CONTROL OF OUR WX THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  THE MAIN
TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS WL REMAIN TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH...HOLDING THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR CWA.  OVERALL THE MOISTURE LEVELS WL
REMAIN DRY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES.  AS A RESULT WL KEEP THINGS
DRY THROUGH TUE WITH THE OVERALL SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE.  TEMPS
WL LIKEWISE REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL GIVEN THESE DRY CONDITIONS.
BY WED...THE RDG AXIS IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST AS A S/WV
DIVES SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.  FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE ASSCTD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THIS FEATURE AND BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WL
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS PERHAPS SOME
WEAKENING REMNANT CONVECTION MAKING INTO THE VCT AREA.  WAY TOO
EARLY TO CALL FOR THIS SCENARIO AND SO WL KEEP WED DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  73  97  76  97  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          98  74  97  76  97  /  20  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           103  79 104  80 104  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            100  73 101  75 101  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          92  79  92  80  92  /  30  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          102  74 103  75 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        98  74  99  76  99  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       92  78  92  80  92  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION





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