Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 041127
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
527 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR/LIFR conditions...due mainly to CIGs...this morning are
expected to briefly lift to MVFR levels by this afternoon then
lower back to IFR/LIFR this evening and overnight. Numerous SHRA`s
and a few TSRA`s are expected through a majority of today and
tonight, but is expected to begin diminishing from W to E toward
early Mon morning as high pressure aloft shifts toward S TX. Sfc
winds are expected to be light to mod from the N and NE much of
the day, then becoming more NW to W toward early Monday morning.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 406 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...

Ongoing convection across the CWA this morning is expected to
continue through late morning then shift farther north this
afternoon with less convection expected across the southern CWA.
The upper low is progged to shift east today through Monday. As a
result the core of the upper level jet is expected to be across S TX
by tonight. At the sfc, the frontal bdry that pushed offshore is
expected to stall. As the upper low tracks closer to the region, the
sfc low assoc with the bdry is progged to strengthen just off the
coast. This will keep S TX in the cold sector and portions of the
coastal waters in the warm sector today and tonight. Therefore, am
expecting generally numerous showers/rain with isol/sct elevated
embedded thunderstorms through today and tonight. SPC has the
coastal counties in a marginal risk of SVR wx, but chances are very
low. The main threat will be locally heavy rain especially across
the NE CWA. However, one hour FFG values are around 2 to 3 inches
and most areas should be able to handle the rain. Localized minor
flooding is possible.

In response to the deepening sfc coastal low, surface winds across
the coastal waters will strengthen once again this afternoon and
will generally be NE today through most of tonight. This will
maintain above normal tides (approx. 1.5FT above normal) and lead to
minor tidal flooding at the time of high tide this evening. Have
issued a Coastal Flood Advisory and a Small Craft Advisory for both
events for this afternoon. Due to winds being NE/parallel to the
coast, rip current risk should remain low.

As the upper low and the sfc coastal low exit to the NE late tonight
through Mon, rain chances will diminish from west to east. Winds
will become more NW to W through Monday afternoon with mod to strong
winds continuing over the coastal waters. The SCA will likely be
extended through Mon. The offshore direction should eliminate the
minor coastal flooding.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...

Deterministic output consistent with respect to a quasi-zonal upper
pattern over the CONUS at the beginning of the period along with an
intrusion of polar air from the NW with the corresponding cold front
entering the CWA by late Wednesday. A weak onshore flow is expected
to develop over the CWA/MSA Tuesday/Wednesday resulting in an
increase in PWAT values to near 1 inch (near normal) Wednesday aftn
in advance of the foregoing cold front. Expect moisture convergence
along the front to contribute to at least isolated convection over
the ERN CWA/MSA (GFE ensemble mean adds credence to forecast of
precipitation.) Much colder conditions expected over the CWA after
frontal passage. SCA conditions are expected Wednesday Night/
Thursday with Gale conditions likely at least over the offshore
Coastal Waters considering current warm SSTs (74-77F per SPoRT SST
Composite) versus polar air intrusion. Near freezing temperatures
are anticipated for early Friday morning over the NRN CWA.
Isentropic lift is anticipated for Saturday and the GFS ensemble
mean adds credence to forecast of light rain/isolated showers over
the ERN CWA/MSA Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    62  54  68  52  75  /  80  80  40  10   0
Victoria          57  52  63  48  72  /  80  80  50  10   0
Laredo            58  50  68  50  76  /  80  70  10  10   0
Alice             60  52  68  49  76  /  80  80  30  10   0
Rockport          61  56  66  56  72  /  80  80  50  10   0
Cotulla           57  50  64  47  74  /  80  80  20  10   0
Kingsville        62  53  68  50  77  /  80  80  30  10   0
Navy Corpus       64  57  66  57  72  /  80  80  40  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CST
     Monday For the following zones: Kleberg...Nueces.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CST Monday For the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Port Aransas
     to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday For the following
     zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60
     NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION


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