Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
FXUS64 KCRP 261142
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
642 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017
SEE 12Z TAF discussion below.
Patchy fog will diminish by mid morning and MVFR ceilings will
become VFR by noon...resulting in breezy conditions across the
Coastal Bend. Winds will relax by mid evening as a weak frontal
boundary stalls to the north. This could set the stage for a more
widespread fog episode tonight. Will include mention of IFR and
possibly LIFR in TAF`s during the late night (08-12z Mon) time
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 429 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
Deepening low pressure in the Southern Plains will induce an
increasing s-sw flow across South TX Today. This will allow
temperatures to heat up to as much as 10 degrees above normal once
morning fog and clouds mix out. Breezy to windy conditions are
also expected along the mid coast and southern bays where small
craft advisories are in effect for this aftn. Winds relax tonight
as frontal boundary stalls north of the area. Expect more fog
tonight due to the weaker gradient and moist boundary layer.
Monday looks more tranquil but still warm and humid as the next
storm system takes aim at the pacific southwest.
LONG TERM (Monday night through Saturday)...
The next storm system in the progressive upper level flow pattern
will be digging through the Great Basin Monday night with an upper
low south of the Four Corners region Tuesday. Onshore flow will
increase Tuesday as a low pressure area deepens over southwest Texas
with windy to breezy conditions over the coastal plains Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Low level jet will increase to 50 knots Tuesday night
transporting moisture into the region. But the jet shifts to the
east early Wednesday as a Pacific front/dryline moves into the Brush
Country as the upper low moves into the Texas Panhandle.
Looking at the ECMWF and Canadian models, there is some concern the
dry air will advance into the region and limit convective potential.
Will still hold on to PoPs for Wednesday but lowered them slightly
keeping them below likely category for the Victoria Crossroads. The
frontal boundary may stall over the coastal areas Wednesday night
with adequate moisture remaining in this region. As the upper low
moves northeast into Oklahoma/Kansas Wednesday night, a secondary
short wave trough will round the base of the upper low into the Hill
Country. Will keep chance Pops over the northeast part of the
forecast area for possible redevelopment of convection Wednesday
night and lingering along the coast Thursday ahead of the front.
Conditions dry out behind the front Thursday night as the
upper low moves through the Ozarks into the Mid Mississippi River
valley Friday morning. The next upper level storm system will be
moving into the Great Basin Friday morning. Models are not in solid
agreement where this low will be Saturday. The GFS deterministic and
ensemble are south of the Four Corners region with the ECMWF
deterministic and ensemble more to the east-northeast in New Mexico,
while the Canadian digs the system more into northern Mexico. Looks
like this upper level storm system will be stronger with a deeper
trough into northern Mexico. Will show rain chances returning on
Saturday with PoPs in the chance category for the entire area.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 86 68 85 72 84 / 10 10 10 10 10
Victoria 86 67 87 69 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
Laredo 94 68 93 70 94 / 0 10 0 10 10
Alice 90 65 91 68 88 / 0 10 10 10 10
Rockport 82 71 81 73 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
Cotulla 94 65 92 68 92 / 0 10 10 10 20
Kingsville 89 67 89 70 87 / 10 10 10 10 10
Navy Corpus 82 71 81 72 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
evening For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from
Baffin Bay to Port Aransas.