Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KCRP 222047 CCA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
347 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...DEEPER MOISTURE
ALOFT HAS BUILT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT/WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THICKENING CU JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER MAY STILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PRIMARILY THE
NORTHERN AND PERHAPS EASTERN ZONES BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING
COMMENCES. BY LATE TONIGHT...SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS PROG TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MARINE/COASTAL ZONES...AS REMNANTS OF
SURFACE FRONT DRIFT INTO THE REGION AND WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING
DEVELOPS. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARDS SUNRISE.
FOR TUESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST WITH MOISTURE DEPTH PROG TO BE THE GREATEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. THUS...HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP MENTIONED FOR SAID AREAS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THIS MORNING/S VALUES GIVEN GREATER
MOISTURE DEPTH. MAX TEMPS TUES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN TODAY DUE TO GREATER CLOUD COVER AND E/NE FLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
HAS POTENTIAL TO BE MUCH COOLER GIVEN DRIER CONDITIONS...BUT
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
PUSH...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL NOT GO OVERLY COOL FOR MIN TEMPS JUST
YET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THURSDAY UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...WITH
AN AREA OF WEAKNESS/POSSIBLE CUTOFF LOWS FORMING UNDERNEATH IT AND
PUSHING DOWN INTO THE STATE.  DURING THIS TIME DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN FILTERING INTO MORE OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS...WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING NEAR TO ABOVE 2 INCHES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AND INLAND. INCREASED
SPREAD OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY/SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE IS STILL NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH WITH MODELS STILL
TREATING THE PLACEMENT OF UPPER WEAKNESS AND TIMING DIFFERENTLY
BETWEEN RUNS. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO END UP RAISING POPS IN THE NEXT
FEW RUNS AS MODELS COME TO MORE OF A CONSENSUS. BY SUNDAY...LOW WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
COOLER...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
TO NEAR 90 DEGREES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  89  73  87  70  /  10  20  10  20  20
VICTORIA          69  90  66  87  67  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            75  93  73  89  70  /  10  20  10  20  20
ALICE             73  91  72  88  69  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          76  89  76  86  73  /  10  20  10  10  20
COTULLA           73  92  70  89  68  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  91  72  88  70  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  77  86  75  /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.