Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 251141 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED IN KLRD BUT HAVE NOT
ELSEWHERE (JUST DID IN KALI). AM EXPECTING MVFR AT KCRP ABT 14Z
BUT NOT AT KVCT. MAY START SEEING SOME CONVECTION AFTER 15Z...BUT
DO NOT HAVE MENTION OF THUNDER UNTIL OR AFTER 16Z. 4KM MODELS ARE
KEEPING MAIN STRONG CONVECTION NORTH OF AREA...BUT THINK THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON (AT LEAST THUNDER)
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA-BREEZE. EXCEPT AT KLRD...WHERE
EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO COME INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...DO
HAVE EITHER TEMPO OR PROB30 FOR TSRA. DO HAVE CATEGORICAL TSRA AT
KVCT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHERE CONVECTION IS
MOST LIKELY. AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO END BY 04Z ALL AREAS
(LATER FORECASTER MAY HAVE TO ADJUST)...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
EITHER COME BACK (KALI...KCRP... AND KLRD)...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT
KVCT WHERE HIGH CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT THE LOWER CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...64K QUESTION IS WHETHER
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS FAR SOUTH LATER TODAY AND RESULT IN
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER AND A HEIGHTENED CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING. BASED ON CLASSIC PARAMETERS FOR MCS MOVEMENT
(850-300MB THICKNESS/850MB THETA-E ADVECTION...MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION)...MOVEMENT SHOULD MAINLY BE
E OR ESE...WHICH WOULD MAINLY BRUSH OUR NORTHERN CWFA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT (CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW THIS MOVEMENT TOO). THUS...AM
TEMPTED TO GO WITH A FFA ONLY NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES (EXCEPT LA
SALLE) AND PERHAPS NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...COULD BE
ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION FARTHER
SOUTH WHICH COULD BRING BOUNDARIES AND FORCE CONVECTION FARTHER
SOUTH INTO SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN EXCESSIVE AS
OF LATE. IN ANY CASE...BASED ON QPF OUTPUT AND CURRENT SOIL
CONDITIONS...WILL GO WITH A FFA FARTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE SAN
PATRICIO AND NUECES COUNTIES. SPC HAS ALL OF CWFA IN SLIGHT RISK
TODAY. BASED ON WINDS AND INSTABILITY...STORMS WHICH DO FORM HAVE
A CHANCE FOR SEVERE...BUT BETTER CONCERN WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF OUR CWFA. ONE CONCERN WITH
FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THAT SOME 4KM MODELS (ESPECIALLY
NSSL WHICH HAS BEEN DOING VERY WELL AS OF LATE) IS KEEPING THINGS
RELATIVELY QUIET EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION (NOT ORGANIZED). STILL...WILL GO WITH WHAT PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE AND FLOODING. MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD END LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COULD
HAVE SOME LINGERING NORTHEAST FOR A WHILE. THINK TUESDAY WILL BE
QUIET BUT DID KEEP THE 20 POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR NOW. SHOULD
SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST AS DRIER AIR GETS INTO THE
AREA AND PROBABLY WILL PRODUCE A CAP. WARMER AND HUMID ON TUESDAY.
FINALLY...CONCERNING RIP CURRENT RISK...IT IS BORDERLINE HIGH BUT
SINCE WE HAVE BEEN GOING WITH HIGH TIL THIS EVENING WILL KEEP IT
GOING. SWELLS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 2 FEET AND PERIODS 8-12
SECONDS...BUT WINDS ARE MORE SSE THAN SE. WITH HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
AFOREMENTIONED RISK ALREADY HIGH...WILL KEEP IT GOING.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WILL GO WITH SCA FOR SEAS
(MAINLY) FOR THE GULFMEX AND FOR THE BAYS (BORDERLINE ESPECIALLY
NORTH). THE LATTER ADVISORY IS FOR WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE GULF MAINLY FOR SEAS (ALTHOUGH WINDS GET CLOSE TO SCA).
MOST CONVECTION WILL STAY INLAND BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE
FORECAST. COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD IF AN MCS DOES GET CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE COAST WITH MESO EFFECTS MENTIONED IN THE REGULAR
DISCUSSION.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MID WEEK AS WEAK H5 RIDGING DEVELOPS. WILL
MAINTAIN AN OCCASIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POP DUE TO PERSISTENT
SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE. BY THE WEEKEND NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN US AND WILL PUSH SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE SOME 40 POPS WITH THESE DISTURBANCES (MAINLY NORTH)...BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT.

IN TERMS OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST EXPECT GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S...AND A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    87  76  89  77  88  /  60  50  10  10  10
VICTORIA          85  72  88  75  88  /  70  60  20  10  20
LAREDO            95  75  98  77  94  /  30  20  10  10  10
ALICE             90  74  93  76  92  /  60  40  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  78  86  79  85  /  70  50  20  10  20
COTULLA           89  72  94  75  91  /  60  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        89  76  91  77  91  /  60  40  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  79  86  79  85  /  60  50  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...
     NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT
     ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION



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