Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 251141 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
641 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation discussion for 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

GOES-R fog imagery is showing the clouds with CIGS between 1500
AND 2500 feet (mainly) to be moving or already over the eastern
terminals. Thus, have MVFR CIGS going eastern terminals but some
breaks possible KCRP as there are some thin-ness in the cover
here. Farther west, will keep the TEMPO MVFR CIGS as last couple
of fog imagery shows some clouds developing along the Rio Grande.
VSBYS are 10SM, so removed any mention of fog. Winds increase as
MVFR clouds dissipate and/or raise during the day over the eastern
terminals, with winds diminishing by early afternoon at KLRD with
passage of surface boundary. Winds also weaken later in the
afternoon at KALI for the same boundary. Should have VFR all
terminals AOA 19Z (KVCT last one to go VFR) with breezy south
winds. Except at KVCT where temp/dew point depressions are
expected to not be large after sunset (like other terminals), will
delay the MVFR CIGS until after 06Z (it will be before 06Z at
KVCT). Winds stay up too, delaying MVFR conditions. Winds taper
off late, with winds shifting west at KLRD before end of terminal
forecast.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 410 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

Unseasonably warm days are expected the next couple of days, as a
deep upper trough moves across the Southern Plains well north of
South Texas. This upper trough will do two things for us however.
First it will dry-slot the area and bring subsident downslope
southwest winds to the area today, resulting in very warm
temperatures. Expecting temperatures 100F or more near the Rio
Grande today, with 90s most areas near and west of Highway 77
(victoria being an exception). Breezy eastern areas with lower winds
but very dry air out to the west. The windy areas will be too humid
while the dry areas will have too weak winds for any critical fire
weather conditions today. Am going with a consensus forecast for
highs today, with adjustments closer to the coast.

Warm tonight with 70s nearly everywhere (upper 60s near Cotulla), as
winds in the boundary layer bring good mixing (ergo no fog) and then
clouds develop overnight. A weak "frontal" boundary (surface high
around 1007 mb - not that impressive) will bring subsident westerly
winds on Wednesday, with no rain and warm temperatures even near the
coast due to the adiabatic warming. Again near 100F over some of the
Rio Grande areas, with nearly all but the immediate coast seeing 90F
or more. Could have some elevated fire weather conditions on
Wednesday out to the west for a few hours, with moderate winds and
afternoon humidity in the teens.

MARINE (Today through Wednesday)...

Will extend the SCA to all but the northern bays today and most of
tonight. Winds in some areas may not reach SCA until later this
morning, but with SCA`s already up over the southern gulf waters
will not get too cute with the advisory. Based on SCA GFE tool, will
have SCA for the southern bays until 09Z, with the SCA for the
gulfmex through 15Z Wednesday, which may have to be extended later
over the next couple of shifts if need be. No rainfall in the
forecast.

LONG TERM...

Frontal boundary pushes away from the region Wednesday night with
temperatures a couple of degrees cooler across South Texas. Will
refrain from using the word cooler...considering temps will still
max out in the mid 90s east to upper 80s west. Lower dewpoints early
in the day will begin to climb as onshore flow sets back in by
Thursday afternoon.

After a short lived shift to northwesterly flow above the surface,
southerly slow returns Thursday night pumping in very warm air over
the region. This will result in a return to highs at or above 100
out west by Friday. 850 mb temps quickly returning to 23-25C over
the Rio Grande Plains. Highs east will be in the 90s over much of
the rest of South Texas.

Next cold front looking a bit stronger with most recent runs, with
some timing differences, but a general Sunday night passage is
expected. Ahead of the front Saturday afternoon could see a
weakening of the CAP in northeast zones with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Models (especially GFS) becoming a bit
more vigorous with POPs Saturday night. Will go with a slight chance
to low end chance pop area wide with some cooling expected in the
mid levels. At this point looks like a fair cool down Sunday and
Monday with highs in the lower to mid 80s.

Drier and gradually warming temperatures expected by Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    91  74  98  64  86  /   0   0   0  10   0
Victoria          87  73  94  57  86  /  10  10  10  10   0
Laredo           101  73 101  63  96  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             98  72  97  60  91  /   0   0   0  10   0
Rockport          87  75  94  66  84  /   0  10  10  10   0
Cotulla           99  69  96  59  93  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        97  73  98  62  89  /   0   0   0  10   0
Navy Corpus       87  75  93  69  85  /   0  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday For the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Wednesday For the following
     zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday For the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
     20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to
     60 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION



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