Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 242339 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
639 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...Update for 00z Aviation.

&&

.AVIATION...Continued VFR drng the next 24 hrs across all of S TX.
Unseasonably dry airmass to persist with little to no cloud cover
across the region. Weak ESErly/VRB sfc winds tonight becmg
breezy/gusty drng the day Thu as a LLJ dvlps tonight and mixes
down on Thu.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 403 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...

Surface high pressure ridge will quickly move off into the Gulf of
Mexico this evening and bring a quick end to our unseasonably low
humidity. Onshore flow will commence in the early evening hours
and gradual increase along the coast through the night as low
pressure deepens in New Mexico. Temperatures tonight should still
fall into the 60s for most everyone with lower to mid 60s for
inland locations before moisture starts to creep up. Guidance not
indicating much fog potential, but wouldn`t be entirely surprised
if some patchy fog were to develop for the inner coastal plains,
just depends on how far the moisture pushes in before sunrise.

A few clouds possible on Thursday with increasing moisture.
Dewpoints already back into the lower 70s for the eastern half of
the area by the end of the day. Southwesterly flow above the
surface will also help to support temperatures several degrees
warm than today. Highs west could approach 100 degrees while
90 appears reachable for much of the rest of South Texas with
850mb temperatures in the mid 20s. Breezy southeasterly winds will
develop during the day both over land and in marine zones. Wind
gusts through the coastal bend and eastern brush country likely 20
to 30 mph. Increasing clouds and higher moisture will result in
min temperatures Thursday night in the mid to upper 70s...back to
reality.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

Anticipate a brief quasi-zonal upper pattern over the CONUS (GFS
ensemble mean) to contribute to significant onshore flow over the
CWA/MSA Friday/early Saturday. SCA conditions may occur over the
Coastal MSA Friday. Anticipate the development of a longwave trough
over the NRN/CNTRL Plains late Saturday/Sunday before shifting
slowly EWD Monday/Tuesday (GFS ensemble mean.) In response to the
foregoing upper pattern, a frontal boundary is expected to enter
the CWA late Sunday/early Monday then become quasi-stationary
through Tuesday. Not confident regarding the development/timing of
upper shortwaves. Yet, the combination of the frontal
boundary/moisture convergence, and significant moisture (GFS
deterministic predicts PWAT values above normal over the CWA by
Sunday in advance of the front) should result in scattered
convection Monday/Tuesday. Although the boundary might dissipate
by Wednesday, anticipate that lingering moisture/instability will
contribute to additional convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    67  91  78  93  79  /   0  10   0  10  10
Victoria          63  90  76  92  78  /   0  10   0  10  10
Laredo            67  99  77 102  79  /   0  10   0  10  10
Alice             63  96  76  98  78  /   0  10   0  10  10
Rockport          72  88  79  89  81  /   0  10   0  10  10
Cotulla           63  98  76 101  78  /   0  10   0  10  10
Kingsville        65  93  78  97  79  /   0  10   0  10  10
Navy Corpus       72  87  80  90  81  /   0  10   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION


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