Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 161131
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
631 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation below for 12Z TAF update.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of MVFR ceilings will linger in the vicinity of terminals
over the next couple of hours. VFR will then prevail across the
region from the mid morning through the end of the period. Light
southerly winds this morning will strengthen during the mid to
late morning, backing to the southeast during the afternoon. Gusty
winds will be slower than normal to relax late this evening and
overnight.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 436 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...

The upper level ridge centered to the east of the region will
build back further west during the period as an upper level trough north
of the region lifts to the northeast. GOES-16 precipitable water
imagery indicates dry air remains over inland portions of South
Texas, while an area of slightly higher moisture over the Gulf
waters is moving northward. Moisture across the middle Texas
coastal waters and Coastal Bend will suffice for isolated showers
and thunderstorms to develop and stream onshore today, though most
locations are still expected to remain dry. Upper level ridging
will take better hold across the region tonight and Thursday, and
with lower PWAT values during this time, a dry forecast will
return.

Surface high pressure over the northeast Gulf of Mexico and a
surface low to the northwest of the region will keep a tight
pressure gradient and breezy onshore flow across the region today.
Very warm H85 temperatures have been translating down to hot
afternoon temperatures across the region, and this will continue
during the mid week. High dewpoints and hot temperatures will
combine to bring dangerous heat index values to the region. A heat
advisory has been issued for much of the Coastal Bend and
southern Coastal Plains for heat index values of 110 to 116
degrees this afternoon. Areas outside this advisory can still
expect temperatures to feel like 105 to 109 degrees this
afternoon. Slightly lower dewpoints tomorrow afternoon may keep
most locations just below heat advisory criteria, but the region
will remain in the 105 to 109 heat index range.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...

GFS/ECMWF deterministic predictions and GFS ensemble mean maintain
the E-W oriented upper ridge axis over TX/SERN CONUS during the
period. The GFS/ECWF predict a TUTT low to move across Deep South
TX/NERN Mexico Thursday Night/early Friday, with another TUTT low
entering the NW Gulf of Mexico/MSA Wednesday before meandering.
Expect the first TUTT low to help suppress convection over the
CWA/MSA Thursday Night/Friday. Yet, anticipate that moisture east of
the first TUTT low will contribute to isold convection over the MSA
Saturday/Sunday. The GFS deterministic advects another region of
moisture, currently over the FL region and ahead of the second TUTT
low, across the Gulf of Mexico and over the MSA/ERN CWA Monday.
Anticipate isold convection over the ERN CWA/MSA Monday/Tuesday
owing to this moisture. Do not anticipate a sea state conducive to
rip currents per the WaveWatch. Maximum Heat Index values 105-109F
over a significant portion of the CWA each day during the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    96  79  96  78  96  /  10  10  10   0  10
Victoria          97  79  98  77  98  /  20  10  10   0  10
Laredo           104  80 103  79 103  /  10  10  10   0  10
Alice            100  77 101  77 101  /  10  10  10   0  10
Rockport          95  83  95  82  93  /  20  10  10  10  10
Cotulla          102  78 102  77 102  /  10  10  10   0  10
Kingsville       100  79 100  78  99  /  10  10  10   0  10
Navy Corpus       96  83  96  82  93  /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening For the
     following zones: Aransas...Jim Wells...Kleberg...Nueces...
     Refugio...San Patricio.

GM...None.

&&

$$

LB/84...AVIATION


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