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000
FXUS61 KCTP 301906
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
206 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVERHEAD
TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A
NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR MORE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE EASTERN ZONES AND ARCTIC AIR IS
BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE RAP SHOWS THE CORE OF LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ENTERING WESTERN PA SO TEMPS WHICH ARE STILL
RELATIVELY MILD OVER ABOUT THE EASTERN 1/2 OR SO OF MY FCST
AREA...WILL LEVEL OFF AND EVEN BEGIN FALLING SOON.

THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE BLUSTERY AND TURNING COLDER. MOST
OF THE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE USUAL WESTERN AND
NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SEEING
JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER OR PASSING FLURRY.

WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO OVER WESTERN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY IN THE GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING FRONT.

SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WESTERN
UPSLOPE AREAS AND MY FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND
LINGERING FLURRIES THE LONGEST...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
INVERSION HEIGHTS COMING DOWN SO THE CHANCES FOR ACTUAL
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE DWINDLING QUICKLY. WINDS REMAINING IN THE
10-15 MPH RANGE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
10-20 BELOW ZERO RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...

SATURDAY WILL START BRIGHT IN MOST AREAS AS THE HIGH CRESTS JUST
TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO INVADE FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEY SHOULD DO LITTLE TO MAR AN OTHERWISE FAIR
ALBEIT COLD MID WINTER`S DAY.

HIGHS FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S NORTH TO SOUTH WILL BE ABOUT
15 DEG BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SE. HAVE LOW CHC
IN EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST.

CONSENSUS BUILDING FOR A MODERATE SNOWSTORM TO AFFECT MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TOUCHED UP QPF
AND SNOWFALL GRIDS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME...INDICATING AT LEAST
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL. CONSENSUS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE IS FOR
CENTRAL PA TO BE IN THE SWEET SPOT...AND IT APPEARS THAT WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL IS AN INCREASING THREAT GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE
TRENDS. STILL TOO EARLY FOR HEADLINE ISSUANCES FOR FOR A 5TH
PERIOD AND BEYOND EVENT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS.

MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE AREA ON WED.
HAVE LOW END POPS FOR SNOW. MORE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

PREDOMINANTLY IFR AT BFD AND JST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
TERMINALS OF THE WEST AND NORTH. THROUGH THE CENTRAL AREAS THE
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE DAY CONTINUES BEFORE
BECOMING VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION IN A
PASSING SNOW SHOWER.

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT BUT DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT TO BETWEEN 15-20KT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR DEVELOPING ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM
MOVING TOWARD THE REGION.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY...IMPROVING AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-033-037-041-042-
045-046-049-051>053-058.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ064>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE