Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCTP 051147
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
747 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. MOTHERS DAY LOOKS
MAINLY DRY WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS EXIT THE SW MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BULK OF AREA
STAYING DRY THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MAIN FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS
THIS AFTN SHOULD BE OVER WESTERN 1/3 OF CENTRAL PA WITH LOWER PCPN
PROBS IN THE EAST. THE MAX PCPN PROBS/HIGHEST POPS WILL FLIP TO
THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INCREASES TO THE NORTH OF DEEP CLOSED LOW REACHING THE NC/VA COAST
BY 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NWD AND HOVER OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE FILLING AND EVENTUALLY GETTING KICKED OUT
TO SEA BY ANOTHER ANOMALOUS TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER SERN CANADA ON
SAT. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE POINTING TOWARD AN AREA OF STEADY
MODERATE RAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION GIVEN
COLD TEMPS ALOFT/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. AN INCREASE IN ATLC
ONSHORE FLOW VIA ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS AT 850MB WILL ALSO BE IN
PLACE. PCPN INTENSITY SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE INTO SATURDAY AS
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
(DUE TO TIME OF DAY) WHICH SHOULD KEEP QPF AMTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ISOLD DIURNAL SHOWERS REMAIN
A LOW PROB OVER THE NORTHERN PA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY RETURNS NWD AS A WARM FRONT WITH WARMER AIR AND RISK
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE LOW CIGS CAUSED THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OVR CENTRAL PA. AT 12Z...STRATUS COVERS ALL
OF CENTRAL PA WITH CIGS BTWN 500 AND 1500 FT.

IMPROVING CONDS INDICATED BY ALL MDL DATA LATER TODAY...AS
DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING CAUSE CIGS TO RISE. BY
AFTN...LATEST HRRR AND SREF SUPPORT LIKELY VFR CONDS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PA AND POSSIBLE VFR CONDS AT KBFD/KMDT/KLNS.
HOWEVER...SCT SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF
VIS REDUCTION IN THOSE AREAS.

RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC MOISTENING OF BLYR MAY CAUSE CIGS TO
FALL AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CONDS BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...RAIN LIKELY. LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT NIGHT.

SAT...EARLY AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. EVENING SHRA POSS.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.