Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 282006
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
306 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE COLD CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS
BEEN RECENTLY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
NOT BE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
LOTS OF CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE
DRYING WNW FLOW. LOW STUFF IS STARTING TO BREAK UP ON THE LEE SIDE
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BUT HIGHER CLOUDS STILL STREAMING OVER FROM
THE W/SW. SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE FAR S THROUGH SUNSET AS
A VERY WEAK WAVE ROLLS JUST TO THE S OF THE STATE. ANY SNOW IN THE
VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE LAURELS IS GOING TO BE NEGLIGIBLE
DUE TO WARMER- THAN-FREEZING TEMPS UNTIL LATE AFTN. A THIN COATING
MAY ACCUMULATE BUT HARDLY ENOUGH TO MENTION. TEMPS STEADY NOW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT WILL START TO FALL SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE SC/SE BY SUNRISE
MONDAY. BUT THESE NUMBERS ARE STILL QUITE /8-10F/ ABOVE NORMAL
MINS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...DESPITE ONLY LIGHT NW WIND AND DECENT
CAA. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE STATE...EXCEPT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHSN OR EVEN A PATCH OR TWO OF FZDZ OVER THE NW
TONIGHT. BUT THE SHSN/FZDZ WOULD BE WIDELY SCT AND NO ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...ANY FZDZ...IF IT DOES
DEVELOP...COULD MAKE A SLIPPERY MORNING DRIVE IN THE FAR NW/NRN
TIER. NO ADVY NECESSARY AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE VERY LOW PROB OF
OCCURRENCE. WE SHOULD ENJOY NO PRECIP AND LIGHT WINDS FOR MONDAY.
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD CREATE PT/MO SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE SERN HALF
OF THE AREA. BUT HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE S MAY DIM THE
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALMOST SPOT ON NORMALS - QUITE A
BIT COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...A WAVE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. MORE CONFIDENCE THAT IMPACTS/PRECIP
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
AND TUE...WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAURELS ON TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK
AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WAVES OF COLDER AIR DIVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK
OF DECEMBER. COOLER AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SINGLE
DIGIT WIND CHILLS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS WE
RING IN THE NEW YEAR.

GEFS AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF
2015 DEVELOPING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. STORM TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO
WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW WEST OF PA BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF MILD AIR BACK
INTO THE STATE WITH RAIN LIKELY THE MOST DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE. IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH AND EAST
OF PA WHICH WOULD RESULT IN COLDER AIR AND A MORE MIXED BAG OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES. THE SALIENT POINT IN THIS IS THAT THERE IS
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO
CHANGE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AND MODEL FORECASTS ALIGN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JST IS IMPROVING VERY SLOWLY BUT STILL IN THE SOUP ON UPSLOPE
FLOW WITH MOISTURE AND LOWER CLOUDS UPSTREAM ALL THE WAY INTO NRN
OH. THEREFORE...IMPROVEMENT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW THIS
EVENING. BFD ALSO WILL DEAL WITH HIGH-IFR AND LOW-END MVFR FOR
THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY NUDGE BACK NORTH OF
THE MD BORDER AND AFFECT THE LNS/MDT VCTY LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. BUT NO REDUCTIONS ARE FCST AT THIS POINT. A SECONDARY
TROUGH MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE NRN MTS THIS EVENING AND COULD TOUCH
OFF ISOLD SHSN OR SOME PATCHY FZDZ...BUT THIS WOULD BE VERY BRIEF
AND NOT WORTH A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. ALSO...THE CIGS
COULD LOWER THERE AND ALSO AT JST ONCE MORE TOWARD MORNING AS THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS AND SQUEEZES THE CLOUD DECK LOWER. VFR
SHOULD DOMINATE TO THE SE OF THE TYPICAL AOO-UNV-IPT LINE. CIGS
AT THOSE THREE SITES WILL DANCE AROUND FL030 FOR THE AT LEAST
EARLY THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL STRETCH FAR TO THE EAST AND
ALLOW NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR TO LAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
FEW FLURRIES OFF THE LAKES OR ON UPSLOPE FLOW INTO JST WILL BE THE
ONLY POSSIBILITIES OF PRECIP UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...ROSS/HAGNER
AVIATION...DANGELO


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