Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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764
FXUS61 KCTP 261837
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
237 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A weak front will remain nearly stationary just south of the
Commonwealth through Wednesday. High pressure will continue
through mid week with warm and dry conditions. An area of low
pressure approaching from the west is likely to lift through the
region on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

The weak cold front south of the Mason Dixon line is acting to
focus some clouds over southern Pa and even a few light showers
just south of the border. RAP meso anal shows CAPEs in excess of
1000J over the border counties, however drier air filtering
slowly southward has led to a decease in dewpoints as well as the
overall CAPE as well.

Warm-dry air aloft should help and keep showers out of the bulk of
the region today into the evening. The HRRR wants to sneak some
remnant midwestern convection into my far swrn zones just after
sundown, but confidence is not high for this and I have very low
POPs as a result.

The overnight will be fair and dry with comfortable humidity over
most of the area. Dewpoints will hang in the mid 60s along the Md
border where a stray shower still be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

Rich deep layer moisture will remain pooled south of the Mason
Dixon through Wednesday, providing dry conditions overall. Clouds
will be most prevalent across the south, closest to the  front
and once again, a stray shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out
right along the border, especially in the afternoon.

Highs Wednesday will be a few ticks higher than Today across the
north and generally unchanged south...and will range from the mid
80s north to the lower 90s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
In the extended the heat continues through midweek...then a
cooling trend to near normal highs looks likely for a few days as
several fronts linger over the area and the core of hot
temperatures shifts west.

The upper ridge across the Southern U.S. is forecast to
retrogress into the Southwestern U.S. by late in the week allowing
northern stream energy to produce a weak, but persistent troffing
across the northeast states.

Cold front currently crossing the region is forecast to stall just
south of the PA/MD border. A wave is forecast to form on the front
supported by the developing upper trof, moving east through the
Ohio Valley Friday and crossing PA on Saturday into Sunday. This
looks to bring a prolonged period of unsettled with weather with
showery conds across the state. The cloudiness will further
support cooler high temperatures than recent days. Low
temperatures during this period look to be several degrees above
normal, especially across southern sections of the state.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

All terminals are VFR and will continue into the overnight before
more patchy fog forms late night into the early hours of
Wednesday. Any areas of late night fog will lift and dissipate
within an hour or so of sunrise.

Southern areas may see a stray shower or thunderstorm pop up in
the afternoon Wednesday.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...Mainly VFR. SCT PM SHRA/TSRA.

&&



.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner
AVIATION...La Corte



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