Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 290044
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
744 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

SPC has a Slight risk for severe thunderstorms for the entire DVN
forecast area into this evening. A NNW to SSE broken line of
storms is ongoing and will continue to move to the NNE at 30-40
mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Through this Evening...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
affect a large portion of E Iowa/W Illinois. A few storms may
become strong to severe.

Thunderstorm Timing: Storms should occur through the late
afternoon and early evening, exiting the NE forecast area by 6-7
PM CDT.

Thunderstorm Risks: Environmental parameters of 35 kt effective
shear, 1500-2000 J/kg SBCAPE, 900 J/kg DCAPE, and dry mid-levels
with a wet-bulb zero height of 9000 ft are supportive of isolated
wind gusts near 60 mph and hail up near quarter size with the
strongest storms. Additionally, an isolated tornado is possible.
Low-level shear is 10-15 kts (0-1 km) and 0-1 km SRH is close to
100 m2/s2. Uttech

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Tonight...Showers and storms diminish early. Lows will be in the
60s and surface winds will be light.

Sunday and Sunday Night...Dry and warm for the majority of E Iowa/W
Illinois. Slight chance for an isolated shower or storm across
the northern third of the forecast area. Highs are forecast in the
80-85 F range. The slight shower chances also exist for the
overnight period for most of the CWA but coverage and probability
are very low.

Monday through Wednesday...Models have an active pattern
developing - especially by Tuesday and Wednesday - as a mid-level
shortwave/vorticity max slowly moves through the Central Plains. A
moist atmosphere will surge northward causing PWATS to spike to
1.50-1.75 inches. Weak mid-level winds would yield low deep layer
shear. Therefore, overall severe weather threat is low with
localized heavy rainfall becoming the most likely concern.

The best chances for widespread rain are Tuesday Night and
Wednesday ahead of a cold front.

Thursday through Saturday...High pressure builds into the Midwest
resulting in a much drier forecast, lower humidity, and cooler
temps in the lower to upper 70s. Uttech

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Sunday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

The main line of storms has moved out of the area. A few isolated
showers will continue to percolate through sunset mainly along and
north of Highway 20. Surface winds will continue from the
southwest for much of the night, shifting to come out of the
northwest by 29/12z. DBQ could see MVFR visibility around sunrise
tomorrow, but otherwise VFR ceilings and vsbys are expected
through the TAF period at area TAF sites.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...DMD



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