Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 130419
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1019 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Cold high pressure is streaming down the Plains currently with the
center of the high passing to our east. But this will still result in
a bitterly cold night for the region with parts of the northeastern
forecast area falling below zero. Locally, temperatures won`t be that
cold but will still be single digits to low teens in the KC area.

The next chance for precipitation will come Saturday night into
Sunday with the next clipper system passing through. This system
will mainly impact Iowa and points to the east and north but for
folks in the Kirksville area, another light snow of around an inch
is possible. Further southwest, precipitation type is a little more
complex as there should be a lack of ice crystals as well as
temperatures warming above freezing at some point. Forecast soundings
by 12Z Sunday show western portions of the forecast area with a
shallow dry layer beneath a saturated layer not colder than about
-8C. So anyone in eastern Kansas and western Missouri heading out
Sunday morning may have to contend with areas of freezing drizzle.
Temperatures should warm above freezing by noon in most areas that
see freezing drizzle so it really looks like the morning will be the
most impacted.

There may be another round of precipitation on Monday night into
Tuesday with another clipper moving through the region. There is a
fair amount of uncertainty with this as the GFS is much farther north
than the ECMWF. This also results in a weaker system as the ECMWF
digs further south. For now have just kept a slight chance mention,
given the disparity in location of the system.

After this round of wintry precipitation, the rest of the forecast
looks comparatively mild if not just outright balmy for mid-
February. Temperatures look above normal from Sunday onward and by
Thursday, some areas could see readings in the 70s. By Thursday,
850MB temperatures may be as warm as 12C to 14C with mixing
potentially into the base of this given strong winds and deep dry
air. But is often the case this time of year when temperatures warm
much above normal, it will be accompanied by strong winds and lower
humidity. So we`ll have to watch portions of next week, particularly
Thursday, for fire weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1014 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Increasing VFR cloud cover will spread from northwest to southeast
across the region while ceilings lower from 12k ft to 6k ft by mid
Saturday morning. Should see MVFR ceilings and snow develop over
northeast MO during the late afternoon hours and continue into the
evening hours. Otherwise modest northerly winds will veer gradually to
the east-southeast by late Saturday morning and increase into the
lower/mid teens late in the afternoon hours.

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...MJ


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