Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 240513

1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

Issued at 159 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Over all few changes were needed to the ongoing forecast. Still
expecting storms late tonight to move in from the west in response to
a progressive trough coming out of the Rockies. Some disagreement in
the various CAMs regarding timing. The latest (16Z) run of the HRRR
has weak activity out ahead of a cold front reaching far NE KS/NW MO
by 05Z while other models in the 09-12Z time frame associated with
storms firing along and just ahead of a cold front. Either way the
FCST reflects TSRA chances for much of the night. MUCAPE is rather
limited in the 700 J/kg while bulk shear values are >40 kts. Meaning
not expecting much in the way of any SVR storms yet the activity
should remain somewhat organized. Small hail, gusty winds and locally
heavy rain will be the theme. Tomorrow as the upper lvl trough moves
through the region the rain and storms will exit from west to east
clearly the CWA by mid afternoon.

Friday appears to be mild and dry before the next system for the
weekend. This system will be rather large and deep impacting much of
the CONUS. Saturday should be the nicer of the two weekend days with
perhaps scattered TSRA/SHRA and mild temps as we reside south of a
sharpening warm front. The various suite of NWP still differ on
where the warm front becomes established, but the GFS is now in
closer agreement with the EC in placing the front in southern IA by
Sunday leaving the CWA in a broad and moistening warm sector.
Storms are still expected for Sunday and Sunday night, but we are
too far out in time for specifics. However, the NWP paint a favorable
setup for SVR storms given able shear, and instability for Sunday
and into Monday... see SPC Day 4-8 Outlook for more info. The upper
level low will very slowly move through the region and should be out
of the area by TUE evening. In its wake very cold air (for late
April) will advect into the region during the day on TUE setting up
what could be a chilly TUE night / WED morning.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Isolated showers will continue to develop across the area between 06z
and 12z this morning ahead of a southeastward moving cold front. More
widespread showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold front
will push across the forecast area between 12z and 18z, then lighter
showers will gradually taper off from west to east this afternoon.
Northwest winds will briefly accelerate behind the front, but should
ease to around 10 kts during the afternoon.




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