Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 020912
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
412 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2014


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014

Satellite imagery this morning shows us that the nation is still
dominated by an amplified pattern with a northwest flow prevailing
across the Plains States. A little vorticity maximum in the
Northwest flow has helped generate some storms across north central
Nebraska and across eastern Kansas overnight. Storms across Nebraska
are tied to the vort max itself as the storms are slowly advecting
southeast with the feature, while the storms of eastern Kansas seem
to be a steady state response to the induced, and weak, low level
jet in eastern Kansas. Storms tied to the vort center are advertised to
likely not make it to Missouri, and recent radar and satellite trends
reinforce this idea as cloud tops are warming and radar returns are
weakening. Activity in eastern Kansas looks like it will dissipate in
place as the storms have yet to move from where they formed some 4+
hours ago. Some hints on radar and satellite that the warm air
advection working off the low level jet might develop more storms
along a line from southern KC to Clinton, but confidence is not high
so will hold off including storms for this morning at this time.
Later today as the vort center in Nebraska shifts into eastern Kansas
and Missouri isolated afternoon storms may bubble up, though focus
for this activity seems more squarely placed in parts of Kansas
slightly to the west of our forecast area, but have included isolated
storms in the forecast for the late afternoon to early evening hours
on are far western edge.

Looking beyond today, forecast hasn`t changed much; though growing
confidence in the general solution has precipitated some minor
adjustments to the going forecast. Weak northwest flow in place
across the Plains today will persist into and through the weekend.
The focus of the flow will move to our northeast as the ridge to our
west flattens a little, but not enough to totally remove us from its
influence. So, models keep advertising a reoccurring potential for
storms in the region as little perturbations move through the
northwest flow. Confidence in getting any measurable rain though is
very very low, so have limited POPs to the slight chance/isolated
category when I did insert them. Otherwise for the weekend, expect
temperature to slow begin climbing to near seasonally normal values
as the ridge to our west slowly expands into our region forcing
temperatures up. This will make Sunday through at least Wednesday of
next week feel more like a normal stretch of hot and humid summer
days, though heat index values are still expected to remain limited
to the 90s.

Next, best, chance for rain still looks to arrive next week as a
shortwave trough works its way through the northern and central
Plains. Models are still all over the place in terms of timing of
the feature and how the associated cold front might sweep through
the Plains, but there continues to be enough of a signal to warrant
keeping chance POPs Tuesday through Friday, with the highest chances
focused on Wednesday night at this time.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014

Couple of upper level impulses dropping southeast from the Dakotas
will likely remain northwest of the terminals through early Saturday
evening resulting in VFR conditions with light winds. Models do hint
that isolated convection could move into northern MO late Saturday
evening.

Patchy MVFR fog expected to form over most of northern and central
MO shortly before sunrise but only affect the KSTJ terminal.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...MJ






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