Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 100505

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1205 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

Issued at 320 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

Dry weather is expected to persist through much of the forecast as
there is very little change in the upper level flow across the CONUS
until the middle to later part of next week. Despite the dry weather
though, there are several issues over the next few days. First, with
the stratus eroding rather quickly now, and this trend is expected
to continue over night as high pressure moves into the area. With the
high centered right over the region late tonight and early tomorrow
morning, there looks to be a decent chance of some fog development.
The best chance for fog looks to be over the southern half to two
thirds of the forecast area where crossover temperatures are more
likely to be exceeded. Further north, winds may have already
switched to the south providing enough mixing to inhibit fog

The other forecast challenge in the short term portion of the
forecast is temperatures on Sunday and perhaps elevated fire weather
concerns as a result. Sunday`s high just looks hot for this time of
year. Very warm air aloft, 20C at 850mb, supports highs in the upper
80s. The record for the KC area is 89 degrees. We`ll be flirting
with that record. If the thermal axis shifts a little further to the
south it could surge the KC area into the upper 80s. For now, it
looks like the warmest temperatures will be from northwestern
Missouri southwest into Kansas. The deep mixing will likely result
in lower afternoon dewpoints, and when combined with the relatively
strong winds, warm temperatures, and drying out fuels, the fire
danger looks to be elevated.

These warm temperatures will occur ahead of cold front that is
expected to move through the area Sunday night/Monday morning. This
frontal passage continues to look like it will be dry so have
continued with no mentionable precipitation. For Monday, in the wake
of the front, strong northwest winds and dry advection may lead to
another round of elevated fire danger. Humidity values should
actually be lower Monday afternoon with as strong or stronger winds.

The rest of the forecast looks quiet as the upper pattern becomes
more amplified across the country. Ridging over the west with
troughing over the east and northwest flow over the center of the
country  will keep the coldest air off to the Great Lakes area. So
as high pressure moves into the center of the country it will really
only result in temperatures getting close to normal for the time of


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

The likelihood for fog despite the invading mid- to upper-level
cloud deck seems to be increasing, supported by fog currently being
reported at a few area sites as well as IXD reporting ever so
slightly lowered visbys, to 8SM. Additionally, light to calm winds
combined with lingering low-level moisture are conducive to
development. Given all of this, have introduced mention in this TAF
issuance, which will need to be monitored throughout the remainder of
the night to ensure proper anticipated categories are captured. Once
the sun rises and the fog burns off, VFR conditions will prevail for
the remainder of the TAF period.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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