Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
FXUS66 KEKA 110013
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
413 PM PST Sat Dec 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Showers will remain possible through Monday for
locations mainly along and north of highway 36. Another
approaching storm system will bring rains and mountain snows back
to the region by Monday night and Tuesday.
.DISCUSSION...The shield of widespread light to moderate rain has
steadily shifted southward through the day and is now mostly out
of the area. Lingering light showers continue over some of the
inland terrain with snow levels from 3500 feet in the N to 5500
feet in the S. Showers will continue over the N half of the area
into Monday, with the best chances and highest QPF values over the
Del Norte terrain. Additional rains of a tenth to a quarter of an
inch per 6 hour period may persist over higher elevations with
about an inch of snow per 6 hour period over the highest ridges.
After tonight, a general break in the precipitation is expected
over Mendocino County.
Another disturbance is expected to affect the area late Monday
into Tuesday. The models are coming into better agreement
regarding upper features with a positively tilted trough gradually
dropping down the Pacific coast. The models are also in better
agreement with the precipitation field with this system, with the
heaviest and most widespread rains and mountain snows affecting
the SE portion of the area. A warm front will lift into the area
on Tuesday before colder air makes its way back in Wednesday into
Thursday. Snowfall in the N portion of the Yolla Bollys may
approach one foot Monday night into Tuesday morning, but these
amounts are expected to be above 4500 feet. /SEC
.AVIATION...Showers diminishing from north to south during the day.
Crescent City and Arcata airports are now seeing VFR conditions.
Ukiah will be improving to VFR through this afternoon as showers
are exiting the area to the south. Do expect showers to return to
Crescent City this evening, dropping conditions to MVFR at times.
For Arcata and Ukiah airports, they should remain dry. However,
there is potential for low clouds and fog forming, and this will
lead to MVFR/IFR conditions overnight. /RCL
.MARINE...Light winds will continue to persist through middle of the
week, as pressure gradient over the NW California waters remain
fairly weak. Seas stage will also remain fairly low through middle
of the week, below the small craft advisory criteria. Looks like
northerly winds will start to build by the second half of the week
as northerly pressure gradient tightens over East Pacific Ocean.
Through Sunday, the main storm track is north of us, in southern
Vancouver Island area. Winds will stay mostly westerly for NW
California waters. A col will set up over NW California on Monday,
making the winds light and variable. The next system will be
impacting San Francisco Bay area, thus it will shift the winds to
easterly or northeasterly Monday night through Wednesday night.
Looks like by the second half of the week, a high pressure will
build in from the NW, and this will bring in increasing north winds
over NW California waters.
Wave heights are not too significant for the forecast period.
Through Wednesday, we have a NW mid-period wave group, and then two
small SW wave groups (8 seconds and 14 seconds). These wave groups,
combined together, should only give us sub-advisory level wave
.COASTAL ZONES...We will be experiencing perigean spring tides
from Monday through Thursday. High tide will be around 8.45 to
8.65 feet each morning near North Split in Humboldt Bay. When tide
reaches 8.80 feet or higher, then there is potential for coastal
flooding. Right now, the tides have been running around 0.4 to 0.7
feet above normal. If you add that to the forecasted tide, then
there is a potential for the actual tide to be exceeding the 8.80
feet. We will be monitoring the situation closely, stay tuned for
further updates in the next day or so. /RCL
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...None.
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