Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 242228
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
328 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER CALIFORNIA WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THRU SUN) SLOWLY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TO CONTINUE TO WARM UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES. IN FACT...FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE THERE IS NOT A SINGLE
CLOUD VISIBLE ON SATELLITE OVER THE REGION. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY REFORM OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOME NORTHERN
INTERIOR VALLEYS...BUT GENERALLY THE CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE 25C ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER
90S OR OVER 100 DEGREES F BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
NOT ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH RECORDS...THOUGH THEY WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BESIDES A FEW MORNING CLOUDS AT THE
COAST...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND POSSIBLY LOW 70S.

AS AN UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS TOWARD THE
AREA...A WEAK CUT OFF LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT NORTH TOWARD NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE LOW WILL DEGRADE INTO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOVE OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
RIDING OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AT THIS TIME THE
SURFACE MOISTURE RETURN IS ANTICIPATED TO BE TOO SLOW TO COUPLE WITH
THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE NOT ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONALLY...A SIGNIFICANT CAP
AT 500-400 MB CAUSED BY SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD
DOWN ANY CONVECTION THAT ATTEMPTS TO FORM. THUS THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN KEPT DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RPA

.LONG TERM...(MON-THU) MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK
INSTABILITY OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY ON MON
AND TUE. MOISTURE LOOKS VERY LIMITED WITH 700-500MB RH`S OF 40-50%
AROUND THE HORN. THE STABLE LAYER NEAR 500MB SEEMS TO WEAKEN
ACCORDING TO GFS ON MON AND TUE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING
NEBULOUS SHORT-WAVE FEATURES APPROACHING IN SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON BOTH THESE DAYS. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES IS STILL VERY IFFY. I INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES A BIT AS WELL AS TSTM COVERAGE AROUND THE HORN OF TRINITY
MON AND TUE. WED AND THU REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND THE COVERAGE MAY
NEED TO BE INCREASED IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND IN THE
DIRECTION OF BETTER STORM CHANCES. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WARM CONDITIONS IN THE INTERIOR AND OCCASIONAL STRATUS
AND FOG ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER GENERALLY VFR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH DRY AIR
OVER THE REGION. A FEW PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AND ALONG THE COAST BUT ANYTHING
THAT FORMS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED...DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. RPA


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. WINDS WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR A GALE WARNING WITH GUSTS
TO 35 KT IN THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THROUGH SAT. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED IN THE OUTER WATERS SUN THROUGH TUE. THE GALE WARNING
OR HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. INSIDE 10NM AND
NEAR SHORE WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY TODAY...WITH TOP GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
WINDS INSIDE 10NM SHOULD DECREASE ON FRI AND MORE ON SAT AND SUN.
HOWEVER SEAS WILL STILL BE ROUGH WITH SHORT PERIODS.

BUOYS HAVE BEEN REPORTING SEAS OF 4-5 FT NORTH OF THE CAPE AND 5-6
FT SOUTH OF THE CAPE...WITH VERY SHORT PERIODS. SEAS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS ROBUST NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE MOSTLY
OUTSIDE OF 10NM. IT MAY EVEN REACH 10 FT AT 8 SECONDS FOR A SHORT
TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING SOUTH OF THE CAPE. A WARNING FOR
SEAS MAY BE NECESSARY. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON HOISTING A WARNING.

CDIP BUOY 244 (NORTH SPIT BUOY) WENT ADRIFT LAST NIGHT. THE COAST
GUARD HAS RETRIEVED THE BUOY AND IS TOWING IT BACK INTO HUMBOLDT BAY
THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY PZZ450.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY PZZ455.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY PZZ475.

&&

$$

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