Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 201237
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
437 AM PST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Periods of heavy rain, strong winds, high elevation
snow, and very large surf can be expected over the next few days
as two storm systems quickly move through the region. Weather
conditions are expected to improve dramatically by the middle of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The first of two more potent storm systems is
providing rain and snow to nw ca at this time. This will be followed
by a second front to arrive Saturday night which should be a bit
stronger than todays in terms of wind speeds and more rain and
snow. The inclement weather will cease by Tuesday as ridge of high
pressure forms over the eastern pacific. This feature will bring a
more pronged period of dry and sunnier weather to the region. In
addition to all this weather....a very large swell is impacting
the coastline of northern CA as A high surf warning remains in
effect. Breaking waves of 25 to 35 feet are possible through
Saturday making visiting the shoreline very dangerous. For
today...the stratiform precip currently falling will transform
into more of a convective regime later today as colder air aloft
arrives behind the front. Thus the steady rain will change into
more of on and off showers with a decent chance of thunderstorms
and small hail...especially along the coast. The next round of
steady rain is expected to move onto the coast overnight Saturday
and continue through Sunday morning, followed by yet another
period of scattered to numerous convective showers through at
least late Monday. Another 1 to 3 inches of rain can be expected
during this time frame as well, which again will be capable of
producing minor flooding of urban and small stream areas along
with modest river rises. While rivers will respond more quickly
that normal for this amount of rainfall, major flooding is not
anticipated. Occasional thunderstorms will be possible again
Sunday afternoon through early Tuesday again, with an enhanced
period of convective activity likely during the afternoon Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...Rain has been persistent over all terminals overnight.
Conditions were hovering between VFR and MVFR. Do expect these
conditions to persist through the next 24 hours. Gusty south winds,
rain, with VFR/MVFR conditions expected. /RCL


&&

.MARINE...Active pattern for the marine weather. Gusty south winds
of 15 to 25 kt with higher gusts will diminish and become westerly
this morning as the weather front pushes inland. Do expect westerly
winds of 10 to 20 kt to continue through Saturday. By Saturday
evening, another weather front will move in and bring in another
round of strong southerly winds. Looks like winds will become
northerly starting early next week, and will then persist through
the end of the forecast period.

Seas will remain elevated through the forecast period. This morning,
we have westerly swell of 15 to 20 feet with period of around 18
seconds. Do expect the wave heights continue to increase this
morning to around 25 to 30 feet. By Saturday evening, wave heights
will diminish slightly to around 18 to 22 seconds and persist
through early next week. After that, looks like the wave height will
diminish once we shift to a northerly wind regime.

Have the hazardous seas warning for the NW California waters through
Saturday evening, and a Gale Watch from Saturday evening through
Sunday morning. /RCL

&&

HIGH SURF...Early this morning, buoy 46006, about 600 nm west of
Eureka, observed wave heights building to 37 feet, with a wave
period of around 15 seconds. Do expect the high swell to move into
the coastal beaches later this morning. Do expect breaking waves of
25 to 35 feet to persist through tomorrow afternoon. As a result,
High Surf Warning is in effect. /RCL

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM PST Saturday
     for CAZ101-103-104-109.

     Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ107-
     108.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ102-
     105-106-110-111.

     Wind Advisory until 6 AM PST early this morning for CAZ102-
     104>106-110-112-113.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 PM PST Saturday for PZZ450-455-
     470-475.

&&

$$

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