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000
FXUS63 KGRB 160345
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1045 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE MIN TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
ALGOMA THIS EVENING. LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS...ANOTHER
COLD AFTERNOON FOR MID MARCH WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 20 ACROSS THE
NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN OUR TYPICAL WARM SPOTS
FROM WAUPACA TO SHAWANO INTO THE FOX VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
LAKESHORE.

WEAK BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...USHERING
IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND TURN 925MB WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS WERE HINTING AT SOME
LIGHT QPF ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...DECIDED TO ADD FLURRIES
FOR THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KEWAUNEE AND
MANITOWOC COUNTIES BEFORE DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE THIS PORTION
OF THE STATE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH (20S BELOW NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN A
FEW SPOTS) TO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE
REGION. SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

LATEST MODEL PROGS SUGGESTS A PAIR OF PACIFIC TYPE SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL PASS OVER THE REGION. ONE FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND A SECOND LATE IN THE WEEK.   COLD AIR TO THE NORTH
WILL CONTINUE TO SAG INTO THE NORTHERN US WHILE THE GULF REMAINS
CUTOFF.

A COLD START TO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LIKELY CLEAR
SKIES UNDER THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOUTH WINDS AND
WAA DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT MAY INCREASE CLOUDS BUT DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE...CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TO HOLD OFF PCPN
UNTIL AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ONGOING BROAD WAA
MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PCPN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST OR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. PCPN TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW DUE TO THE INITIALLY DRY AIR MASS AND COLD H850
TEMPERATURES.

TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS TRENDING WEST AND A TAD WARMER FOR LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. H850 LOW TRACKS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT RANGE
FROM OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR THE ECMWF TO A BIT FURTHER WEST
WITH THE GFS.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR MEAGER WITH THE GFS
INDICATING A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT FOR EASTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE SUGGESTS A MIX ISSUE POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE AND 850 LOW SUGGESTS BEST SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE.

AFTER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
ANOTHER WEAK NORTHERN STREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM SLIDES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITH COLD AIR POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE...COLD AIR WILL AGAIN POUR SOUTHWARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND FOR
THE CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS DRY COLD HIGH
PRESSURE FROM CANADA SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE IN FAR E-C WI NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE IS ENOUGH OPEN
WATER OVER THE LAKE TO ALLOW AN MVFR CLOUD DECK AND SCT FLURRIES
TO FORM. THOSE WL MV INLAND AT TIMES TNGT AS NELY FLOW CONTS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI