


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
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554 FXUS63 KGRB 140758 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 258 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Near-surface Canadian wildfire smoke will gradually move out of the region this morning. Some additional smoke could enter far north-central Wisconsin but will move out by the end of the day. - A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon in portion of central and east-central Wisconsin, but no severe weather is expected. - Next round of more widespread active weather arrives Tuesday afternoon into Thursday. Isolated strong or severe storms are possible. - Very warm and humid conditions to start the work week with heat index values in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Smoke... Near surface smoke is expected to progress eastwards out of the region through the morning hours today, bringing back better visibility and air quality to most of central and east-central Wisconsin. However, another round of smoke may follow behind a weak cold front in the north, touching into portions of far north-central Wisconsin near the Upper Peninsula border in the afternoon. Fortunately, a wind shift to the south should take this smoke back out of the region by the end of the day today. Precipitation... The aforementioned weak cold front could bring a few showers to far north-central Wisconsin this morning, but overall any precipitation should be brief and light. No storms are expected. Another chance for some isolated to scattered shower and thunder activity will arrive this afternoon. Soundings support destabilization at the surface and CAMs continue to suggest some isolated activity across portions of central to northeastern Wisconsin, roughly along a corridor from Wausau to Marinette. Without better synoptic support, any storms that do form will likely be brief pulse-like in nature and no severe is anticipated at this time. Given how similar conditions provided little in the way of convection across Minnesota yesterday, chose to keep relatively low end pops for an isolated chance for the afternoon. Finally, the next widespread round of active weather arrives Tuesday and could last as long as Thursday. A quasi-stationary front will lift into the Upper Great lakes region Tuesday, bringing with it a fairly decent amount of warmth and moisture. This will likely serve to bring at least a couple rounds of rain and more organized weather into the region both Tuesday and Wednesday. On Tuesday, the best axis of warmth and moisture will be stretched from western to north-central Wisconsin, roughly from Eau Claire to Land O Lakes, so these will be areas to watch for the development of any stronger storms. Afternoon soundings show a corridor of better instability along the aforementioned areas, with MUCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg in our neck of the woods ahead of a cold front. Main question will be whether forcing along the front and surface warming will be able to overcome some upper capping that will also be present. Additionally, bulk shear remains modest, around 20 to 30 knots. As a result, severe weather potential remains isolated, but a few strong storms will be possible on Tuesday. Damaging winds and hail will be the main threats with any stronger or severe storms. Heavy rainfall will also be possible, with PWATs around 1.5-1.75 across the northwoods where the storms will be. Wednesday will also see active weather, as any lingering convection and rain from Tuesday continues to move through the region as the stationary front shifts southwards. Instability will be at a premium on Wednesday especially once the front is through the area in the afternoon, so severe weather may struggle to develop. That said, many of the details will still depend on how convection on Tuesday evolves; frontal timing, any clearing (and subsequent warming), or lingering thunderstorm outflow could all change how any storms evolve on Wednesday. At this time, the best potential remains to our south on Wednesday, with the instability barely reaching portions of central Wisconsin. Heavy rainfall will still be a concern however, as the strong surge of moisture pushes PWATs towards 2 inches in the afternoon. Probabilistic guidance brings the probability of exceeding half an inch to around 50-70% for much of central to north- central Wisconsin on Wednesday. The 90th percentile also shows around 1.50-1.75 inches, which would suggest that some localized much higher amounts are possible in areas that see any stronger thunderstorms or training storms. Some lingering rain could last overnight before departing the region on Thursday. Temperatures... As mentioned above, we are expecting a surge of warmth and moisture into the region, which will bring much warmer weather for both today and Tuesday. Expect highs in the upper 80s today, and even a few low 90s on Tuesday. Dewpoints will also be in the upper 60s to lower 70s by tonight, so expect a warm and muggy night. The rain and passing front will bring some cooler temperatures in for Wednesday and highs will be back in the 70s by Thursday. From there, temperatures will moderate some for the end of the week, with highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1032 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Smoke from Canadian wildfires will continue to impact parts of the forecast area through at least Monday afternoon, bringing poor air quality and MVFR visibilities. The current batch of smoke was shifting northeast, and should exit eastern WI by daybreak. Another batch of thicker smoke will sag into far northern WI Monday morning, but is not expected to get much farther south than RHI before retreating north late in the afternoon. A weakening cold front will bring a few showers into NC WI at the beginning of the TAF period, but most models have these dissipating before reaching the RHI TAF site. There will be a fairly moist and unstable air mass in place Monday afternoon, but with only a washed out front (with weak convergence) to provide any forcing, convective development may be too isolated to mention in the TAFs. The midnight shift can take a closer look at this and decide if showers or a storm should be added to any of the TAF sites with the 12z issuance. SCT daytime cumulus will likely develop in the late morning and afternoon. Will carry a mention of LLWS at the RHI TAF site through 09z/Monday as west winds increase to 35 to 40 kts in the 1500-2000 ft AGL layer. Surface winds will remain light from the SW-W overnight, then becoming a bit gusty due to daytime heating on Monday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann AVIATION.......Kieckbusch