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000
FXUS63 KGRB 281754
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1154 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

TEMPERATURES AND SMALL PCPN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING ANOTHER SUNNY DAY TO
NORTHEAST WI TODAY. AFTER ANOTHER COLD MORNING...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT FORCING WILL BE WEAK. ANY
MEASURABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT AROUND THE FORECAST AREA...
BUT SCT FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL NIGHTS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND REACH
EASTERN WI LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A S/W TROF WILL ARRIVE LATE
IN THE DAY...AND THERE MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH SATURATION NEAR THE
FRONT TO SUPPORT SCT SNOW SHOWERS THERE. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCT FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL MODERATE...
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

UPPER FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM HUDSON
BAY TO CALIFORNIA. A SHORT WAVE EJECTING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO THE CENTRAL CONUS AS IT
APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RETURN FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
BY MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE BEFORE SATURATION
OCCURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SNOWFALL
TOTALS AMONG THE MODELS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
BASED ON MODEL QPF IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A WARNING IS
NECESSARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AND
ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON
THIS SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME LAKE
EFFECT IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING COLDER AIR BACK TO THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THICKER MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS BETWEEN 5000-7000FT SPREADING OVER THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE LOWER
CLOUDS WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT
SNOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. S-SW AROUND 5-10
KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND
15 KTS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......BERSCH