Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KGYX 221007
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
607 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6AM UPDATE...SLIGHT LULL IN THE PRECIP AS THE SUN RISES. ADJUSTED
TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

THE COASTAL LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITH DUELING
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OFF DELMARVA AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. AHEAD
OF THE LOW... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OS MOISTURE
ORIGINATING IN FLORIDA. A LIGHT STEADY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS
MAINE AS ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW TAKES ADVANTAGE OF THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS... WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE FOCUSED IN THREE AREAS... ALONG THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT... IN THE EAST FACING PORTIONS OF THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW... AND IN CENTRAL MAINE WHERE
FRONTOGENESIS AND DYNAMICS FAVOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN AT 2 TO 4 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. WHILE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING... THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RAIN AND TOTAL AMOUNTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING
ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE RIVER FLOODING... FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STEADY RNFL WILL COME TO AN END THU NIGHT INTO FRI...TAPERING TO
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRI. AS LOW PRES LIFTS NEWD WINDS WILL TURN
NWLY AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DRY OUT AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS.
ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED...AS THE BULK WILL HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN.

TROF REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ERN CONUS SAT...AND NRN STREAM S/WV
WILL RACE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA LATE SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL BRING
A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
WHERE A MIX IS POSSIBLE. SFC COLD FNT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION
SUN...WITH GUSTY WINDS BUT THE BULK OF PCPN REMAINING IN THE MTNS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER MAKING IT TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT POP WILL ONLY REFLECT SLIGHT CHANCE ATTM.

RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT TAKES HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE
SICK OF THE RAINY...RAW WX THIS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE...AS
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS RETURN TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BAD DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND THEN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN
THE NRN ZONES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
10 TO 15FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH FRI...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO
SAT. WINDS WILL BE NEAR MARGINAL SCA THRESHOLDS FOR PART OF
FRI...HOWEVER SCA WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVER 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 6 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT
FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE
EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR. ANY FLOODING WHICH DOES OCCUR MAY LINGER BEYOND
THURSDAY AS WATERS SLOWLY DRAIN TOWARD THE SEA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. WITH A HIGHEST SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT...
OCCURRING AT LOW TIDE ... COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A SURGE OF MORE
THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES TO CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPLASH OVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK
COUNTY MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CURTIS/LEGRO
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...CURTIS
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO
MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.