Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 260723
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
323 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of upper level disturbances will cross the area this
week, bringing chances for showers or thunderstorms, especially
in the mountains. Otherwise temperatures will be near normal
with lower humidity into mid week. Warmer and more humid
conditions move in at the end of the week, with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. More
chances for some storms will accompany a low pressure system
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
Expect continued drying today behind a weak cold front this
morning. We should see high temperatures in the 70s, which is
near to a little bit below normal for this time of year. With
dewpoints in the low 50s or even upper 40s, humidity will be
quite comfortable. With dry air in place it will be tough to get
showers and thunderstorms going this afternoon, but there will
be a shortwave trough moving in from the west late in the day.
This could help to trigger a few showers or an isolated
thunderstorm which may drift into New Hampshire from the west
late.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
Shortwave trough moves in from the west tonight, with remnant
showers tracking into northern New Hampshire and northwest Maine
overnight. Temperatures fall comfortably into the 50s, though
some 40s are also possible.

While the initial shortwave trough and its associated showers
drift northeast into central Maine, another sharper upper trough
crosses the area from west to east on Tuesday. This should
provide the support for more widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms. With dry air still in place at the surface,
instability for showers will be generated by cold temperatures
aloft. There is a moderate amount of shear available to aid in
storm organization on Tuesday, but do believe that instability
will be the biggest limiting factor. With cold temperatures
aloft and dry air at the surface, a threat of wind and hail from
these thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Not too many changes to the long term portion of the forecast at
this time as 00z guidance suite and latest ensemble data show
decent run to run consistency.

We`ll start off the long term period with an approaching upper
level trough Tuesday evening. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will likely be around early Tuesday evening before
dissipating with the loss of daytime heating. However, with cold
temps aloft overhead on Wednesday as well, we`ll likely reignite
showers and a few thunderstorms.

The flow flattens out come Thursday across the northern tier of
states with a SFC warm front pushing in from the southwest.
Chances for showers will increase as Thursday progresses in
advance of the warm front (mainly during the afternoon and early
evening - the morning should be fine). There could be a fair
amount of thunder around Thursday night as elevated instability
increases. This will come with the threat of locally heavy
rainfall. Slightly better weather is expected Friday, with warm
and humid weather and a chance of showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms with SFC troughing still hanging around.

Yet another short wave trough approaches for Saturday, and this
may mean another round of showers and thunderstorms with a warm
and humid air mass in place. With high PWATS some heavy rainfall
is once again possible depending on timing and path of short
waves.

Overall, a fairly unsettled extended period with at least a
chance of showers most every day with thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall possible from time to time.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Expect VFR conditions today and tonight, with a
chance of an afternoon shower or possibly a thunderstorm mainly
over western New Hampshire late this afternoon into tonight.

Long Term...VFR should be predominant, with tempo flight
restrictions in showers and storms, especially in the mountains.
IFR conditions are more likely Thursday night in low clouds and
rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Generally light wind flow over the waters with a
weak front moving through this morning.

Long Term...Winds/seas remain below SCA through Thu. May need
SCA in SW winds Thu night into Fri.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Kimble
SHORT TERM...Kimble
LONG TERM...Ekster


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