Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 011855
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
255 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST ALONG IT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POPPING IN NORTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BY THIS
EVENING. OCEAN STRATUS LURKING OFFSHORE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
INLAND THIS EVENING IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
MAINE. ELSEWHERE VALLEY FOG WILL AFFECT THE USUAL SPOTS. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
HOT AND MUGGY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS TO GIVE WAY TO HAZY SUN WHICH WILL QUICKLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. SHOULD SEE AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT
LOOKING FOR A LOT IN THE WAY OF SHEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT
SOME STORMS IN THE NORTH COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS BY MID
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL MAINE FROM PORTLAND TO
THE MID COAST IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WHICH MAY LAST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FAR EASTERN ZONES. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RISING HEIGHTS AND SFC
HIGH PRES WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA BY WED MORNING. ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY END BY MID MORNING...EVEN FOR ERN
ZONES.

HIGH PRES WILL REESTABLISH SE OF THE AREA...BRINGING SW FLOW
ALOFT AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. FRI SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST OF THESE DAYS...WITH H8 TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FNT. STILL LOOK TO FALL SHY OF RECORDS IN THE LOW
90S...BUT READINGS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.

S/WV TROF EJECTS OUT OF LARGER WRN TROF...AND RACES UP THRU CANADA
TO QUEBEC BY SAT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FNT SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A FROPA SAT...CLEARING THE COAST BY SUN. AS USUAL
MULTI-MODEL BLEND TENDS TO SMOOTH OUT THE POP AND PROLONG CHANCE
OF PCPN...SO I HAVE TRIED TO NARROW THE TIME WINDOW FOR POP AS
BEST AS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME RANGE. THE RESULT IS MOSTLY DRY FRI
AND SUN...WITH HIGHEST POP SAT.

A MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS BUILDS IN WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BEHIND FROPA. NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY AIR WILL BE THE RULE FOR A FEW
DAYS...BEFORE RIDGING AND HEAT FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY BUILDS OUR WAY AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
BECOMING VFR OF TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR FOR THE EXTENDED. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
NOCTURNAL VALLEY FOG AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE FORECAST. COLD
FROPA SAT INTO SUN MORNING COULD BRING AREAS OF MVFR IN
SHRA/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. AHEAD OF COLD FNT ON THE WEEKEND...SUSTAINED SWLY FLOW
MAY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO
OVERFORECAST WAVE HEIGHT UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SINSABAUGH/LEGRO



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