Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KILX 170143
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
843 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Diurnal cumulus cloud cover that was prevalent from about I-57
southward has mostly dissipated this evening as daytime heating
has ended in combination with a 500 mb shortwave ridge bringing
subsidence aloft. Mainly clear skies will prevail through the
early portions of the night then some mid-level cloud cover will
move in late in the night in conjunction with a weak shortwave
trough approaching from the west. Have made minor updates to cloud
cover to account for this. Patchy fog in forecast Wednesday
morning for areas south of I-74 continues to look good as higher
dewpoints and clearer skies expected in that area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure continues to build into the Midwest, and a cold front
is draped across the southern US. Tropical Storm Odile is over the
Gulf of California, parked just south of a 500mb ridge.  Forecast
for ILX is dominated by slow warming trend under the high, and
precip chances into next weekend.  Overnight, expecting quiet
weather and temperatures dropping into the mid-upper 40s. Only
concern will be the potential for fog, particularly in the
southeast, where stratocu have trapped some of the higher dwpts in
the region at the sfc.  Patchy fog in the forecast as a result in
the southeast, further north will still be possible, just not really
enough to mention at this time, provided the dwpts continue to mix
and drop a couple degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

High pressure to move off to the east over the Great Lakes on
Thursday and Friday. Cold front from the northern plains to reach
northern IA by early Saturday. Southerly flow ahead of the front
should bring ample moisture back into the area by the day Saturday.

Models differ some on the movement of the remains of Odile into the
southern plains. Moisture appears to be trending to make it into OK,
but should not reach into IL in time as the front should move in and
advect its remains southward.

The cold front is expected to move into region during the day
Saturday, with the main affects and associated precipitation on
Saturday night for central IL. Exiting precipitation on Sunday, so
gradually dropped pops down through the day.

A new high pressure center would then come in behind the front for
the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Surface high pressure meandering across the Midwest will bring
light and variable winds for the next 24 hours. A weak mid-level
shortwave trough crossing Illinois will cause some cloud cover
overnight, but no MVFR ceilings. Fog mention in TAFs continues to
be MVFR from 09Z-12Z, however areas KTAZ-KPRG southward could see
lower values due to higher dewpoints and less cloud cover expected
overnight. For Wednesday afternoon, scattered cloud cover
expected as daytime heating interacts with low level
moisture, but any local ceilings should remain above MVFR
thresholds.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...GOETSCH
AVIATION...ONTON







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.