Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 010222 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
922 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
OVERALL QUIET NIGHT IN STORE. DRIER PW`S WITH SOME ONLY AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA HAS KEPT MOST OF THE
AREA DRY TODAY. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP THIS EVENING AND
HAVE NOW DISSIPATED. NOT EXPECTING ANY NEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO POP
UP SO LEAVING POPS CLEAR OVERNIGHT. DUE TO DRY AIR AROUND...MOST
AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY FOG BUT SOME ISOLATED VERY PATCHY SPOTS COULD
SEE SOME DUE TO DECENT COOLING. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH OF IT
TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS. ALSO SOME MID/HIGHER CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN
TONIGHT FROM SW FLOW FROM THE UPPER HIGH OVER TX. LOWS LOOK GOOD
OVERALL AND ONLY CHANGES ARE TO BRING IN PREVIOUS OBS TO BLEND INTO
HOURLY TRENDS. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES BUT SOME PATCHY
FOG AND MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE AT SOME SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER MOST TAF SITES TONIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. /BB/DC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY LARGE RIDGE OVER THE SE TWO
THIRDS OF THE NATION. EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE IS A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN TX. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS THREE IMPRESSIVE VORT MAXES ROTATING ABOUT IN THIS
AXIS. ONE OVER THE OH VALLEY...A WEAK ONE OVER N AR...AND A MORE
SIGNIFICANT ONE OVER SE TX. THE ONE OVER THE OH VALLEY SHOULD STAY TO
THE NORTH AND NOT AFFECT THIS FAR SOUTH. THE ONE OVER AR IS IN THE
PROCESS OF SHEARING OUT AND THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT ITS ENERGY
WILL EVENTUALLY GET PULLED INTO THE ONE OVER S TX.

NOT MUCH TO MOVE LOW OVER SE TX AND IT DOES LOOK AS THOUGH IT WILL
WOBBLE TO THE NE INTO SW LA TUESDAY...BUT RIDGING FROM FL ACROSS N
MS/AR WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH AFFECT THE LOW WILL HAVE ON THE AREA.
PWATS DO INCREASE AS THE LOW MOVES INTO LA...BUT ONLY IN IMMEDIATE
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH KEEPS PWATS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA BELOW 1.5 INCHES.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD KEEP
WINDS LIGHT AND NON SOUTHERLY...NOT GOOD FOR ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN IN THE 60S...CONTINUED
DEEP MIXING EACH AFTERNOON AND LARGE DIURNAL RANGES AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP POPS TO A MINIMUM IN THIS TIME
PERIOD MAINLY OVER THE SW PORTIONS. MOS HAS CONTINUED TO HAVE A HARD
TIME ON THE DEGREE OF MIXING/DRYNESS OF THE AIR...THUS WILL GO ABOVE
MOS ON MAX TEMPS./26/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER
ABOUT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  WHILE A RETURN TO HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE DURING THE PERIOD AS PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES
CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...COUPLED WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
90S EACH AFTERNOON...WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY QUICKLY DISSIPATING AROUND
SUNSET. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  96  69  96 /   7  10  11  13
MERIDIAN      68  93  69  94 /   6   7  10  11
VICKSBURG     68  97  69  97 /   7  10  12  16
HATTIESBURG   70  96  71  93 /   7   9  10  14
NATCHEZ       70  94  71  93 /   9  14  14  18
GREENVILLE    69  96  70  98 /  14  10  11  16
GREENWOOD     68  94  69  95 /  14   8  11  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/BB/26/19


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