Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 060846
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
245 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH HAS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MID TO MOSTLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. ON THE SURFACE A 1030 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ALABAMA.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. THE LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK
WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDINESS AROUND...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 50S. LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE
LOWER 30S. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST THIS EVENING ALONG WITH
THE HIGH CLOUDS. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE
WEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A COLD FRONT
RACING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S./17/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FLOW PATTERN WILL BE QUITE
AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND A LARGE HIGH OVER THE WEST. THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO OUR REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT EACH AIRMASS LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY AND SHORTLIVED. SOME
LIGHT RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME NE ON MONDAY...BUT THAT
WILL BE ABOUT IT. FRONTS ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE
DRY AS MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

BY FRIDAY...MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL RELAX QUITE A BIT WITH
ENCROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKING AS IF IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
MOVE THROUGH AND NOT OFFERING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN. ACTUALLY LOOKS
MORE LIKE A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE ACROSS IT.

GFS ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD EASILY TRANSITIONING INTO THE 60S/70S BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH MODERATING LOW TEMPS AS WELL./26/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS TODAY UNTIL 00-02Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME EARLY MORNING
FROST ACROSS THE REGION. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       55  31  58  36 /   5   0   0   3
MERIDIAN      54  27  58  33 /   4   0   0   4
VICKSBURG     55  31  59  37 /   6   0   0   3
HATTIESBURG   56  29  59  36 /   5   1   0   3
NATCHEZ       55  30  58  37 /   7   0   0   2
GREENVILLE    53  32  58  35 /   5   0   0   5
GREENWOOD     53  28  57  35 /   5   0   0   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/26


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