Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 290236 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
936 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PROPAGATING NORTHWEST ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...HAS
RESULTED IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THOSE AREAS IN IT`S
WAKE. WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUING TO WANE AND THE BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FIZZLE OUT...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A
FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE COMING TO A HAULT. I`LL ACCOUNT FOR BOTH
THIS...AND THE STRATIFORM RAIN BARELY REACHING INTO RICHLAND...
FRANKLIN...AND CATAHOULA PARISHES...IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE TONIGHT
PERIOD. LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE CWA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY MY
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARDS DAY BREAK FRIDAY.

OTHER THAN THE CHANGES MENTIONED ABOVE...ALONG WITH SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...NO FURTHER
CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST ON THIS UPDATE. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...LOOK FOR A QUIET EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. THERE WILL AGAIN BE A TREND TOWARD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES AT SITES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY AFTER 09Z.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE BY 15Z FRIDAY...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
POSSIBLE AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A RATHER QUIET AFTERNOON TODAY AFTER A
RATHER BUSY DAY YESTERDAY. THE ARKLAMISS REGION HAS ENJOYED THE
INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND YESTERDAYS MCV THOUGH THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS SKIRTING THE MS/AL
BORDER(WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINING IN AL). A SQUALL LINE THAT
AFFECTED OK/TX THIS MORNING HAS SLOWLY BEEN MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE
ARKLAMISS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND HAS BEEN DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY AS IT PUSHES EAST. AS MUCH DRIER AIR RESIDES OVER THE
ARKLAMISS REGION PER PW VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES...AND VERY LOW RH
VALUES IN THE 700-300MB RANGE...THIS ACTIVITY WAS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS IT PROGRESSED EAST INTO A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. THAT
BEING SAID...I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG STORM BEFORE IT
COMPLETELY DIMINISHES.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA AND ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT SHOULD BE IN STORE. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE
MORE INT HE WAY OF SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH...SOME
ACTIVITY COULD LINGER LATER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...A
WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION AND THIS WILL HELP
GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS DEPICTED BY MODELS TO CUT
OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW AND SPIN OVER OUR REGION. IT IS HARD TO
PINPOINT AT THIS TIME THE CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED EACH DAY WITH THE
MOST RECENT UPPER AIR AND ATMOSPHERE INFORMATION. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME BETTER CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY IN EASTERN AREAS THAT ARE ABLE TO HEAT UP MORE WHEREAS THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL BE CONTAMINATED BY ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS/CLOUDS. HOWEVER...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON PUTTING ANYTHING
IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS AT THIS TIME. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  85  68  86 /  12  31  30  48
MERIDIAN      67  88  66  87 /  16  34  18  37
VICKSBURG     70  88  70  84 /  10  36  37  54
HATTIESBURG   69  86  67  87 /  16  41  13  31
NATCHEZ       70  86  69  84 /  11  41  32  62
GREENVILLE    70  87  70  83 /  12  39  41  65
GREENWOOD     69  86  69  84 /  12  36  38  61

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19


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