Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 231058
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
458 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

A COASTAL MCS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY. VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE CONFINED TO
THE GULF COAST AND NEAR TERM TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL STAY MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A WAKE LOW WIND EVENT ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE CURRENT
MCS RAIN SHIELD AND THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE
HRRR AND OTHER HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ROBUST
CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...AND IF
INSTABILITY CAN INCREASE AHEAD OF IT DUE TO CLEARING BEHIND CURRENT
MCS...THERE THERE COULD BE AN UP-TICK IN STRONG/SVR WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP A LIMITED THREAT GOING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT WILL DOWNGRADE THE ELEVATED THREAT AREA IN THE
GRAPHIC/HWO. THANKS TO SPC FOR COORDINATION THIS MORNING. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WAKE LOW WIND EVENT ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
CURRENT MCS RAIN SHIELD AND THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS IN REGARD TO THE GRADIENT WIND POTENTIAL.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THIS DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN AND CREATE RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS WHERE
TEMPERATURES GET WARM ENOUGH...WHICH APPEARS MOST LIKELY IN THE SE
HALF. AT THIS TIME EXPLICIT GUIDANCE IS BELOW WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...AND WITH DISRUPTION IN HEATING FROM THE MCS CLOUD
SHIELD...WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY...BUT WILL KEEP THE
LIMITED THREAT GRAPHIC/TEXT GOING.

AS WE GO INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COLD
ADVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATE NORMALS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING WEEK...WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS MIDWEEK MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
BY THE WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN...
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND SHARP TROUGHING EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW ANOTHER BOUT OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE MIDWEST...BUT A MUCH
SMALLER TASTE OF COLD AIR FOR US AS THE JET REMAINS PRIMARILY TO OUR
NORTH. HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THIS PATTERN WILL BECOME
MUCH MORE ZONAL. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WARMER FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...REQUIRING SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN
FORECAST TEMPS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A POTENT SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS TROUGH WILL SWING SO FAR TO
THE SOUTH THAT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER THE GULF. AS IT TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. BY NEXT WEEKEND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS A
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT RA/TSRA OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY TO BRING LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS. GREATEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS OVER THE PIB/HBG AREA
WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA FROM GLH TO GWO LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER
LOW SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN LATER THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  50  63  38 / 100   8   7   4
MERIDIAN      74  55  62  39 / 100   8   8   5
VICKSBURG     71  47  63  37 / 100   8   5   3
HATTIESBURG   74  56  65  41 / 100   6   6   4
NATCHEZ       71  49  61  39 / 100   7   4   3
GREENVILLE    68  46  60  37 / 100  14   6   3
GREENWOOD     70  47  59  36 / 100  14  11   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

/





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