Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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107
FXUS64 KJAN 300941
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
430 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday Night...The northern fringe of
upper level ridging extending north from the Gulf of Mexico into the
Lower Mississippi Valley will be ever-so-gradually breaking down
through the short term period, slowly increasing the potential for
minor disturbances to affect at least the northwestern portions of
the region. With daytime temperatures bordering on hot and near-
ground moisture in decent supply the generated instability will
likely get activated into at least isolated thunderstorm development
this afternoon, particularly across western zones where additional
atmospheric lift will come from the left exit region of an upper jet
streak emanating out of eastern Texas. But the potential of a
thunderstorm coverage enough to mitigate temps today is low so
expect highs this afternoon on par with yesterday (meaning maximums
near or a little above 90 degrees in most spots). There is some
minor potential for more vigorous and widespread activity developing
this afternoon to our west to move into far western zones overnight
before completely dissipating, but otherwise conditions should be
mostly dry with only high clouds spilling in from the west.

Tomorrow, the weak low level anticyclonic flow over the region today
will start breaking down with the "dirty-ness" of the upper level
ridge periphery in our region increasing (as alluded to above). In
In the afternoon at least weak southern flow should set up in
southern and western zones which, taken with other factors, will
increase late-day thunderstorm chances in those areas a bit more.
But, even considering this, the highest rain chances will still not
be exceeding 30 or 40 percent. There is some opportunity that clouds
and showers could offer some resistance to maximum heating in
southwest to west zones although in most other areas maximum
temperatures may continue to trend slightly upward with highs in some
portions of east-central and Southeast Mississippi possible touching
the mid 90s. Once again, some minor shower and storm chances may
persist through the night in west to northwest zones Tuesday night
as dissipating activity attempts to approach from the Sabine River
before ending altogether.

Finally, it is worth mentioning the atmospheric lapse rates across
our region will be quite high through the short term period and this
could have the combined affect of giving any storms in our region a
boost in available instability and also downdraft CAPE. The gist
would be that potential for frequent lightning and brief gusty winds
will certainly be in play in the afternoons for any vigorous storms
that form although the expected coverage of vigorous storms should
be quite low at best. At this point there does not seem to be enough
potential to include mention in the HWO or graphics, but it is
certainly something we will be monitoring. /BB/

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday Night...Wednesday will be a
continuation of warmer than normal temperatures with low rain
chances mainly over our western zones. A northern stream closed low
will be tracking east across the northern plains to the upper Great
Lakes region while a southern stream closed low will be tracking
east from the desert southwest to old Mexico. The northern stream
low will help send a cold front toward our region while the
southwest flow aloft associated with the southern stream low will
help increase deep moisture over our region. Our PWATS will range
from 1.5 to 1.7 inches by Wednesday afternoon. Daytime heating will
combine with the moist air mass to result in at least isolated
coverage of storms over the western zones. Models are in agreement
that the cold front will stall just northwest of our cwa Thursday
while the southern stream low moves over the Southern Plains. The
closer proximity of the low and stalled cold front will lead to
greater rain chances Thursday with the greatest rain chances over
our northwest zones. The increased rain chances and associated cloud
cover will limit insolation and result in cooler afternoon highs.
The ECMWF and GFS differ on how far south the closed low will be
with the GFS being farther south and over southern Texas Friday and
the ECMWF being over northeast Texas. The closed low is expected to
linger over Texas through the weekend while a second northern stream
closed low deepens a large upper level trough over the eastern CONUS
a second cold front looks to drop into our cwa Sunday. The ECMWF is
slower to dissipate the southern low and maintains greater rain
chances over our region through Monday while the GFS is drier,
moving the cold front south of our cwa by Monday afternoon. Cooler
than normal afternoon highs are expected Friday through Monday but
morning lows will continue at or above normal through the period.
/22/

&&

.AVIATION...A few patches of MVFR fog will be possible through 8 am
or some this morning although through today and this coming evening
flight cats will be primarily VFR. Anticipate high clouds coming in
from the west through the day with puffy cumulus clouds (with bases
from 3 to 6 KFT) developing from late morning through early
afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
into this evening, but mainly over GLH/GWO TAF sites. Finally,
expect light winds through today, mainly from the north. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       91  68  92  70 /  18  13  24  18
Meridian      93  65  94  68 /  13   9  18  13
Vicksburg     91  68  91  69 /  26  15  28  18
Hattiesburg   93  68  95  70 /  19  10  20  11
Natchez       90  68  89  69 /  27  14  29  15
Greenville    91  70  90  70 /  25  18  28  22
Greenwood     91  68  91  69 /  18  12  24  20

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

BB/22



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