Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 201944
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
244 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CLOUD DECK
OVER AR/TN/N MS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK UP AND DIMINISH AS
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND TROF AXIS PIVOTS INTO THE TN
VALLEY.

WITH ALREADY NORTHERLY WINDS NOT MUCH WILL BE LEFT OF THE ORPHANED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY TONIGHT OTHER THAN A SUBTLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AS DEWPOINTS...STILL IN THE 40S...WILL ONLY TEMPORARILY
RISE INTO THE 50S BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS PIVOTING OUT OF THE TN INTO THE OH VALLEY LOOKS
TO DEEPEN MARKEDLY DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. STRONG CONFLUENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BUILDING
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS/COLD ADVECTION DUE TO INCREASED GRADIENT FROM BUILDING
RIDGE...BUT THE RIDGE SEEMS TO BUILD EVENLY ALL THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY...THUS WITH NO INCREASE IN GRADIENT...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK AND RESULT IN NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION.

WHILE NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE EFFICIENT AND
SOMEWHAT SIMPLE FOR MOS TO GET A HANDLE ON...THE GFS ENSEMBLE DOES
SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE DAYTIME IN THIS SCENARIO. THE
OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE MOS DATA HAD ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF VARIANCE IN MAX
TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN ON THE HIGH
END OF THAT RANGE. WILL...THEREFORE...CUT THESE A COUPLE DEGREES./26/

.LONG TERM...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY OVER THE 7 DAYS AS
GENERAL RIDGING WILL EXIST NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. LOOK FOR
SEASONAL TYPE CONDITIONS AS WE FINISH OUT THE WEEK WITH OUR FORECAST
AREA BEING ON THE BACK END OF A REINFORCING COOL/DRY PUSH OF AIR.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND A BIT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF NORMAL DURING
THIS TIME. STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT (HIGHER HEIGHTS) WILL BECOME
SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BETTER AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND ALLOW FOR ABV NORMAL TYPE CONDITIONS
(HIGHS/LOWS) TO DEVELOP FOR SAT-MON WITH SOME 80-85 DEGREE READINGS
MAKING A RETURN. BOTH THE EURO/GFS ADVERTISE ANOTHER COOL FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH AROUND TUE...BUT CHANCES ARE THIS FROPA WILL BE DRY AS
WELL. /CME/



&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT INTO
TONIGHT FROM THE N/NW AROUND 4-6KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING AROUND 09Z NEAR WATER SOURCES AND LOW LYING
AREAS...WHICH WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z. /17/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       48  80  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      45  80  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     46  81  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   49  82  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       50  79  51  75 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    51  79  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     47  78  46  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







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