Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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357
FXUS64 KJAN 240220 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
920 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.UPDATE...Expecting remaining shower and storm activity this evening
to dissipate later tonight based on latest trends and guidance. Lows
tonight will be in the low to mid 70s. As for the current forecast,
removed pops after midnight and adjusted the hourly temps for this
evening to account for the latest trends. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...Isolated thunderstorms will linger over the area
until 24/04Z, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through 24/10Z.
Patchy fog and low clouds will develop after 24/10Z, with ceilings
and visibilities being reduced to IFR and MVFR, respectively, at
JAN, HKS, MEI and HBG until 24/14Z. Scattered convection will be
seen once again Sunday after 24/18Z./26/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...Afternoon shower and
thunderstorm activity has blossomed in the last couple of hours
thanks to daytime heating and the presence of a MCV located near
Memphis. This has helped send outflow boundaries southward and
generated more convection this afternoon across mainly the central
portion of the CWA. Lapse rates are on the lower side today which
suggests these storms will be a little less potent than we saw
yesterday. Most of this convection will diminish this evening, but
with the shortwave lingering over the region, there will be some
potential for continued shower/storm activity to linger over the area
tonight. How, or if, this convection affects temperatures tonight and
dewpoints will still remain to be seen. Expect that if convection
occurs, it could bring lower overnight lows to some places which
could help limit or slow warming tomorrow. In addition, it could
allow for some low clouds or fog to develop in the morning, again
limiting warming. Despite all of this, still think that locations in
the Delta still have a decent chance of hitting heat advisory
criteria for tomorrow. That being said, we did continue an elevated
heat risk in the HWO/graphics but given the uncertainty of overnight
convection, did not extend the current heat advisory at this time.
Will let future shifts assess this continued potential. In addition,
we expanded the limited heat risk for the remainder of the area as
lower rain chances look to exist the further east you go and
persistence suggests these locations should get close to 105 degrees.

Aforementioned shortwave will linger over the region through the
rest of this weekend. This, combined with heat and moisture, will
continue to bring potential for mainly afternoon and evening
convection. /28/

LONG TERM...Monday through next weekend...

Upper ridge that has been entrenched over the region over the past
week will have gradually begun to weaken late this weekend into
Monday. The upper ridge axis will flatten and become more situated
into the central Plains to eastern Rockies. That will help two
decent shortwaves to move through the region. Monday the PW`s will
still be pretty high near two inches in the west with some sub 2
inch PW`s finally nosing in the east in the wake of the southwest-
westerly moving shortwave moving into the southern Plains. This
perturbation will continue to move west along the periphery of the
ridge while upper ridging over the western Atlantic will swing in an
easterly wave/TUTT across the Florida Panhandle on Monday morning
into afternoon near the Gulf Coast. This will help keep moisture the
best along the southern half and kept the best POPS in that area
with less in the north. Heat issues will be less of a concern on
Monday but there will still be lingering high dewpoints in the Delta
and near the I-55 corridor. Highs will be slightly lower in the low-
mid 90s but enough areas topping out in the 103-105 range to include
a limited for heat in the Delta and central Mississippi and north of
I-20 near the I-55 corridor.

A cold front will stall just north of the area early next week and
this in addition to the easterly wave moving over southern Louisiana
and southwest Mississippi will help spark more convection on Tuesday
and into Wednesday, mainly over the southern and western portions of
the region. Heat issues will again be further confined into the
Delta on Tuesday before clouds and convection on Wednesday will help
keep highs into the lower 90s and preclude any heat issues. As the
easterly wave moves northwest out of the area under the ridge
further building west towards the Rockies, a deep trough and cold
front will take shape over the north-central Plains. Our area will
be in weak ridging but gradually this weakness will increase over
our area, helping to bring the cold front down near our area and
increase rain and storm chances from the north Thursday into the
weekend. This will keep some temperatures down in the north but
overall near normal temperatures and increased chances of storms
later in the work week. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       76  92  74  93 /  19  61  25  35
Meridian      73  94  73  93 /  19  45  23  33
Vicksburg     77  92  75  93 /  22  59  32  35
Hattiesburg   74  92  73  92 /  19  47  25  47
Natchez       76  92  74  92 /  34  60  33  48
Greenville    77  94  75  94 /  19  57  28  40
Greenwood     75  92  75  94 /  19  55  14  34

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$



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