Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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732
FXUS64 KJAN 091723 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1123 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions are expected through Saturday at all TAF sites. Winds
will be from the north-northeast this afternoon around 7-10kts
before lighter winds are expected after 10/01Z. Winds will gradually
shift more from the east-southeast Saturday after 10/12z around
5-7kts. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: Cold and dry through the next 24 hours. Early
morning surface analysis had a >1040mb north-south oriented ridge
axis over the plains. This ridge will shift east through tonight and
become centered over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys by Saturday
morning. Our flow aloft will remain northwesterly. Together, these
features will bring a cold and very dry airmass across our area.
Although record cold is not expected, afternoon highs today will be
around 15 degrees below normal and lows tonight will be around 15
degrees below normal. The winds tonight will be much lighter than the
winds early this morning. This will result in warmer wind chill
values in the lower 20s versus the teens. /22/

Saturday through Thursday: 00z models and ensembles continue the
general progressive zonal pattern through the period. We will start
with a cool Saturday morning with lows in the lower to middle 20s
with the cold surface high centered over Kentucky. As we push further
into the day the surface high will retreat to the Eastern Seaboard.
This will bring back more humid low level return flow to the region
as high temps quickly rebound back to the 50s and 60s on Sunday
afternoon. There will be enough moisture convergence on Sunday to
squeeze out some isolated showers in the northwest delta region for
Sunday afternoon. A series of shortwaves will come across the region
with several cold fronts for Sunday through the middle of next week.
Once again models are having timing issues with the shortwaves and
the amount of return moisture with each one. On Sunday night
scattered showers will spread across the region as pwats build to
around 1.3 inches ahead of the first cold front. As we go into next
week guidance have continued the trend to warmer spring like
afternoon highs and milder nighttime lows for the upcoming week
before the strong cold front. For Monday models continue to show some
surface and low level capes for some isolated convective potential.
So have kept isolated thunder in for Monday. The first front should
move through the region during the day before it hangs up across our
southern counties. Models shows that surface and low level capes will
continue across the south half for Monday night. So have introduced
some isolated thunder in the south half. For Tuesday into Wednesday
our chances of rain will continue as models have a difference of
opinion on surface and low level instability. So will keep it all
showers with basically lower end pops with moisture availability
issues among the models. For Wednesday a stronger cold front will
push into the region. There are different model opinions on how the
cold air will chase after the departing rainfall on Wednesday night.
The GFS and Euro gets the rain out of the there before the cold air
arrives, while the Canadian tries slow the exit of the rains out of
the region. Have opted to go with the faster Euro and GFS. So have
moved the rain completely out of the region by Wednesday night per
the Euro. The GFS was a little slower in exiting the rain out
Wednesday night before the colder air arrives. So do not see any
winter weather at this time for Wednesday night. For Wednesday night
in the wake of the front temps will cool down into the 20s and 30s,
while on Thursday highs will be in the 40s and 50s. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       45  25  50  35 /   0   0   0   3
Meridian      44  23  49  30 /   0   0   0   2
Vicksburg     44  24  50  36 /   0   0   0   3
Hattiesburg   48  25  52  32 /   0   0   0   3
Natchez       45  25  53  39 /   0   0   0   4
Greenville    40  24  47  36 /   0   0   0   6
Greenwood     42  21  48  34 /   0   0   0   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

DC/22/17



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