Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 270208
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
908 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Surface ridging continues to build into the area from the NW with
quiet and cooler weather persisting. Mostly clear skies and light
to calm winds will allow for good radiational cooling conditions
tonight, thus lowered min temps by a degree or two based on latest
obs and guidance. Otherwise, the going forecast remains on track.
/TW/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight and Tuesday: Quiet, cooler than average conditions will
continue to prevail over the ArkLaMiss through tonight and
tomorrow. A surface high with origins in Canada, currently
centered over the Midwest and upper level NW flow will continue to
contribute to to this favorable late June weather. Temperatures
overnight will fall to the lower to mid 60s. Tomorrow will be
slightly warmer as the surface high moves towards the
Appalachians. However, dewpoints in the low 60s will make for
another pleasant day. A weak disturbance embedded in the upper NW
flow will result in an increased presence of upper level clouds.
Moisture will increase as the surface high moves east, this could
trigger some isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity in our
southernmost counties during the late afternoon hours but not much
coverage is expected.

Tuesday night through Sunday: Old frontal boundary/baroclinic zone
will begin lifting back to the north by Tuesday night. While
northern areas will continue to see mild overnight lows in the 60s,
the more muggy 70s will be the case over southwestern portions by
Wednesday morning. As the westerlies retreat northward Wednesday, a
weak mid level cyclonic shear axis will be left over the region.
This along with higher surface dewpoints surging back in will
support an increase in diurnal convection through the end of the
week.

Over the weekend, mid level troughiness over the MS valley will
bring the westerlies back into play at least over northern portions.
With weak shortwaves embedded in the flow and surface dewpoints
in the 70s, possibilities for somewhat more active convection will
increase, especially over northern portions. Local microburst
composite parameter is suggesting at least chance possibilities of
wet microbursts each afternoon, beginning Saturday. Clearly a
signal is emerging for this scenario due to consistency in models
runs./26/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  88  68  89 /   1   5   2  19
Meridian      63  87  66  88 /   1   3   2  14
Vicksburg     64  88  68  89 /   1   7   2  24
Hattiesburg   65  88  68  88 /   1  10   4  32
Natchez       65  88  69  88 /   1  10   4  37
Greenville    64  87  68  89 /   1   4   2   9
Greenwood     62  86  67  89 /   1   2   1   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

TW/JPM3/DL/26



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