Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 031428
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1028 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE TODAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE MID SOUTH
MOVING INTO NORTH GA AND CENTRAL ALABAMA. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIALIZED THIS MORNING OVER INTERIOR SE
GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF FLORIDA. AT THIS
TIME...1000-1500 J/KG EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70 TO 73 DEGREE RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO BRIEFLY
SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
INTERIOR SE GEORGIA WHERE SPC HAS DESIGNATED PARTS OF AREA UNDER
A SLIGHT RISK. HIGHS TODAY WILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL WANE THIS EVENING AS STABILIZATION
OCCURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHWRS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE GEORGIA THIS MORNING. THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS NE FL AND
SE GA TERMINALS. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED IN
THE AFTN AND EVENING AND VCTS IS PLACED FCSTS. WITH ANY STRONGER
TSTMS...INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL SWLY AT 10-15 KT DURING THE DAY. TSTMS
WILL BE ON WANE THIS MID EVENING...WITH SHOWERS INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH INTERIOR SE GA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE A
LIGHT NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...S-SW FLOW AROUND 15KT TODAY WILL VEER TO SW AND THEN W
TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
AND S OF AREA WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTIER NWLY
FLOW DEVELOPING LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE NW GUSTS AROUND 30-35 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
WINDS SLOWLY RELAX FRI AND SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W.
MAIN SHORT TERM HAZARD ARE BREEZY SWLY WINDS AND AFTN AND OVERNIGHT
TSTMS.

RIP CURRENTS: S-SW FLOW AROUND 15KT TODAY WILL VEER TO SW AND THEN W
TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
AND S OF AREA WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTIER NWLY
FLOW DEVELOPING LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE NW GUSTS AROUND 30-35 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
WINDS SLOWLY RELAX FRI AND SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W.
MAIN SHORT TERM HAZARD ARE BREEZY SWLY WINDS AND AFTN AND OVERNIGHT
TSTMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  86  64  79  53 /  70  60  10  10
SSI  85  68  81  60 /  60  50  30  10
JAX  89  68  83  55 /  50  50  40  10
SGJ  87  69  82  63 /  40  50  60  10
GNV  87  68  82  58 /  40  50  60  10
OCF  86  69  82  57 /  40  60  70  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CORDERO/HESS/COMBS



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