Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 010819
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
319 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

...CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATE TODAY...

...WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY NIGHT)...

TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AS THE COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST RESULTING IN DECREASING WINDS
AND RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS EXTREME
COASTAL NE FL/SE GA INTO THE MORNING AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
INTERACT WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSES. WILL HAVE SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BUT
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THAT REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE WEDGE IS LIKELY HOLD IN ACROSS EXTREME NE FL
INTO SE GA PRODUCING A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS THERE. A WIDE RANGE IN AFTERNOON TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
WHERE VEERING WINDS AND FEW PEAKS OF SUN WILL HELP WARM TEMPS THERE.

TONIGHT...

WITH LIGHT WINDS...RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... AND
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF LATE
NIGHT FOG TO FORM. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH TO  UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT ACROSS SE GA...WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING AT THE MID LEVELS MONDAY BECOMING SW TUESDAY.
PERHAPS ENOUGH LAYER MOISTURE CAN BE PRESENT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS..WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA...BUT EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST TO KEEP PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AT
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AT THE
SURFACE AND SE ALOFT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S FOR
HIGHS ON MONDAY...WITH MID/UPPER 70S FOR TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH 60-65 FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SE GA WEDNESDAY...WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES
THE REGION THURSDAY...WASHING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL USE
CHANCE POPS ENTERING SE GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MID/HIGH END
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY. WITH SOME DEGREE OF MODEL
DISCREPANCY ON HOW TO HANDLE THE POTENTIAL WASHING OUT OF THE FRONT
AND/OR MOIST NE FLOW POST-FRONT FOR LATE WEEK...WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING POPS SATURDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY IN SEVERAL WEEKS IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND...WITH 70S COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES...WITH CHILLY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS COOL NE FLOW PREVAILS.
WARM 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING. SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT GNV IS EXPECTED BY AROUND 18Z BUT REST OF
TERMINALS WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...DATA BUOY OBS INDICATE SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND COASTAL TROUGH
WEAKENS...WINDS WILL BE ON A DECLINE TODAY BUT WILL HAVE SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LEGS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE LEGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS. HIGH
PRESSURE IS MAINTAINED WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS...WITH ONSHORE FLOW
PATTERN OVER WATERS...THRU TUESDAY. FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASES SOME MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: WHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW DECREASES TODAY...LARGE SWELLS
NECESSITATES A CONTINUATION OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.
THE RISK WILL PROBABLY BECOME A MODERATE RISK ON MONDAY AS SWELLS
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. WILL ALSO HAVE BREAKERS OF 4 TO 6 FEET TODAY WHICH
WILL DECREASE ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  48  72  57 /  60  10  10  20
SSI  58  51  64  55 /  70  20  10  20
JAX  67  51  72  58 /  60  20  10  10
SGJ  68  55  66  58 /  60  20  10  10
GNV  75  56  77  59 /  40  20  10  10
OCF  78  58  79  60 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL DUVAL-
     COASTAL NASSAU-FLAGLER-ST. JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

PETERSON/ALLEN/



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