Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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000
FXUS62 KJAX 301820
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
220 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER OUR LOCAL AREA
WITH A MESO-LOW ANALYZED OVER JAX METRO AREA. RADAR AND SATELLITE
SHOW A SEA BREEZE ATTEMPTING TO FORM AND MOVING TO NEAR I-95 IN SE
GA...BUT STILL PINNED TO THE NE FL COAST. A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES NEAR THE SE GA COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. A PERSISTENT
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS IS SLOWLY MOVING
TOWARD THE NE OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. THE HRRR HAS
INITIALIZED WELL AND WILL FOLLOW ITS GUIDANCE FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE THE
CURRENT TRACK AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OR MOVE BEYOND OUR WATERS
THIS EVENING. ALSO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE OVER SE GA. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AND NOT
EXPECTING LIGHTNING. THE DRIER AIR IS MIXING DOWN AGAIN AND
DEWPOINTS HAVE CRASHED INTO THE 50S OVER INTERIOR SE GA AND
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF NE FL. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT FAIR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH TEMPS BELOW CLIMO IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO
MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND
SE GA COASTAL WATERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THURSDAY BUT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS IN MID LEVELS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS ISOLATED ALONG THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST
SEABREEZE. POPS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND SHORT WAVE AFFECTS GA. POPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY...INCREASING TO AVERAGE OR ABOVE ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO LEVLES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
DOMINATE EARLY NEXT WEEK JUST TO THE WEST WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS GA. A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES AND A SW STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTN/EVNG
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY BECOMING NUMEROUS NEAR THE EAST COAST BY
LATE DAY AS SEABREEZES MERGE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SE TUE
AND WED WHICH SHOULD BRING A DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES. TEMPS AND POPS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR. SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE IN SE GA MAY
AFFECT SSI AND HAVE VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT REMAINING TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME
ONSHORE LATE AND THEN SE BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
AN ONSHORE FLOW. AN INVERTED TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG EASTERN
SEABOARD ON FRI THEN DRIFTS WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. THUS
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND POSSIBLY REACH SCEC CRITERIA ON
FRIDAY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR MIXING DOWN WILL LOWER RH`S TO NEAR 30
PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTH OF SFC TROUGH...WHERE WINDS
ARE OFFSHORE. WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE WILL NOT MEET HEADLINE
CRITERIA. RH`S WILL INCREASE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH VALUES
REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  92  73  92 /  10  30  30  40
SSI  76  87  76  87 /  20  20  30  40
JAX  71  90  74  91 /  10  20  20  40
SGJ  75  88  75  89 /  10  20  20  40
GNV  69  92  72  92 /   0  20  20  40
OCF  70  92  72  92 /   0  20  20  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

TRABERT/ZIBURA



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