Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 271827
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
127 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...MARGINAL FREEZE INLAND TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTN THROUGH FRI...

SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF WAKE TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WERE IMPACTING
THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTN...ONE PRESSING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FL
AND THE OTHER SHIFTING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL GA/AL MARKED BY A
BLANKET OF STRATOCUMULUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS EDGING EASTWARD WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. ALOFT A DRY AND COLD NW FLOW
PREVAILED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUING TO DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. LOCALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH COOL AND WINDY NW FLOW
PREVAILED WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WIND
SPEEDS INCREASED TO SUSTAINED 19-23 MPH OVER SE GA WITH GUSTS OF
25-34 MPH...JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THIS AFTN...COOL AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
EROSION OF THE LOW STRATOCU DECK AS THE BANK SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND
ENCOUNTERS SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS EDGING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST REGION. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. HIGH TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

TONIGHT...A MARGINAL FREEZE IS EXPECTED INLAND DESPITE WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED NEAR 3-5 MPH UNDER A COLD NLY DRAINAGE FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR
30 WELL INLAND WHERE THE FREEZE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING
FOR INLAND NE FL. FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE COAST MINS WILL RANGE IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW SPOTS NEARING FREEZING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES BRIEFLY BEFORE
SUNRISE...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE WARNING
GIVEN LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE VEERING NNE THROUGH EARLY FRI
MORNING. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN WIND
PROTECTED AREAS INLAND GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL WHILE COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE FROST DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS.

FRI...SUNNY AND COLD WITH BREEZY NNE WINDS 15-20 MPH ALONG THE
COAST TO 10-15 MPH INLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NNE OF THE
LOCAL AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER COMPARED TO
TODAY GIVEN FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER
WITH VALUES IN THE LOWER 50S OVER SE GA TO UPPER 50S FROM TRENTON
TO GNV TO BUNNELL SOUTHWARD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. PLEASANT WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY MORNING WILL STILL REMAIN NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS
MUCH OF SE GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY SO AREAS OF FROST WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE WITH MAX TEMPS SATURDAY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA RISING
INTO THE MID 70S BY MONDAY. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 40S AND SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEATHER PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
CHANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH SHIFTING TO AN ONSHORE
FLOW REGIME. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER TUESDAY ON AND ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
WHERE BUOY 41008 REPORTED NW WINDS 21 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 31
KTS...WITH THE SAUF1 C-MAN STATION AT ST AUGUSTINE SUPPORTING
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH WINDS
14 KTS AND GUSTS TO 18 KTS. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI WITH ALL HEADLINES EXPECTED TO CEASE BY MIDDAY FRI.
EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS THROUGH 12Z FRI MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MON. THE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN TUE AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND TOMORROW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  31  54  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  37  54  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  32  56  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  37  57  42  64 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  32  58  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  32  59  36  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

GUILLET/ENYEDI/WALKER





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