Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 251856

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
256 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.NEAR TERM /Through Monday/...
Scattered showers and storms will develop across the southwestern half
of the region this afternoon, with a few showers possible
elsewhere. Surface high pressure over the northeastern conus will
continue to wedge down the eastern seaboard tonight, and then push
into the western Atlantic on Monday as a strong trough pushes into
the Great Lakes region. The weak mid/upper level trough will
remain near the region through Monday. Showers and storms will end
across the western portion of the region this evening, but develop
over the western Atlantic and push into the coastal areas
overnight in the moist northeasterly flow. This will continue
through the day on Monday, with scattered showers and storms
through the day. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to lower
70s. Highs on Monday will be near normal with highs in the mid to
upper 80s.

.LONG TERM /Monday night into Sunday/...
Changes are underway as a deep amplitude upper level trough digs
south into the Great Lakes and pinches off an upper level low that
drops southward as well. This upper low and trough combo is going to
rotate around the eastern seaboard through the forecast period.

At the surface a weak frontal system will approach the area by mid
week enhancing our diurnal convection on Tuesday and Wednesday but
it becomes a bit more active Wednesday night and early Thursday as a
low develops off the Mid-Atlantic States and draws moisture
northward. Friday and Saturday are looking to be dry as the low
moves northeast and the frontal system drops south of the forecast
area into central Florida. best chances of rain will be in the
southern most areas.

As we get into the latter part of the weekend...(and into Monday 10/
04)...the front will begin to inch north along the coast with a
strong wedge/local northeaster setting up to its north. This will
have to be watched closely as these types of systems are notorious
for setting up heavy rainfall for the portion of the coast they
focus on.


VFR with mainly dry conditions for the east coast TAF sites this afternoon,
with showers moving in off the Atlantic tonight through the end of
the TAF period. Storms may form near KGNV this afternoon and have
VCTS there. Patchy fog is possible near daybreak.

Northeast winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots by this evening
as high pressure builds in from the north. Long period swells
will persist with dominant wave period at 11 seconds. Winds and
swells will gradually decrease Monday and Tuesday as the pressure
pattern weakens. Winds will become offshore on Wednesday as a cold
front moves across the waters.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk through Monday due to easterly swells.

AMG  71  88  69  90 /  20  40  50  20
SSI  74  84  71  86 /  30  40  50  20
JAX  71  87  71  88 /  30  50  50  20
SGJ  71  85  72  85 /  30  40  50  20
GNV  69  87  68  89 /  30  50  50  20
OCF  71  88  69  88 /  30  50  50  20


.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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