Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 210810
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
310 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

.NEAR TERM (Through tonight)...

A short wave and associated surface low across the Se Gulf will move
into cntl Fl tonight and lift Ne offshore by late tonight. Rain will
overspread the area from south to north today with bulk of activity
this afternoon into the evening. Rain will taper off late tonight as
the short wave lifts out of the area. With low passing to the south
of the area...models continue to indicate a sharp Nw to Se pop and
pcp gradient with highest rainfall amounts (locally up to an inch
possible) mainly south of the I-10 corridor. Model soundings also
continue to indicate enough weak instability for a few elevated
storms across the same area. As winds veer to the east and southeast
today temps will warm into the mid 70s most areas despite cloud
cover. A cold front will drop southeast towards the area by late
tonight behind the departing low and moisture pooling ahead of the
front may lead to areas of late night fog which is strongly
suggested by MOS and SREF Guidance.

.SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday Night/...

As weak shortwave ridge shifts east of the area Wednesday morning...
increasing lift ahead of Gulf of Mexico shortwave trough will cause
increasing cloudiness over early morning fog...weak weak isentropic
lift resulting in a mostly cloudy day with scattered light showers
breaking out. Will maintain isolated t-storms during afternoon given
model suggestion of 500-1000 J/KG CAPE...but uncertainty as to how
much destabilization is realized north of warm front in cloudy
conditions. Cloudiness and scattered showers will likely keep high
temps down north of warm front ...following cooler MET/ECS MOS
guidance rather than warmer MAV guidance for high temps...wouldn`t
surprise me if temps end up a little lower than forecast...though
any breaks in cloudiness especially southern areas...will push temps
up to forecast values.

Wednesday night...low pressure develops over eastern Gulf of Mexico
with warm front extending eastward over ctrl FL...close to ECMWF
solution...which is N of NAM and S of GFS. Isentropic lift north of
warm front...in right-rear quad of upper jet streak...should
generate numerous showers...possibly a few t-storms. Most widespread
and heaviest rainfall likely to be in a band north over north-
central and northeast FL into extreme southeast GA.

.LONG TERM /Thursday Through Monday/...
Following solutions with surface low moving south of forecast
area... with isentropic lift gradually shifting east of forecast area
Thursday night and Friday. Went with consensus guidance for high
temps Thursday with low-mid 60s se GA...mid-upr 60s I-10
corridor...upr 60s-lwr 70s further south.

Low pressure moves offshore of e-ctrl FL and lifts NE offshore of GA
and Carolinas thru Sat...while weak high pressure builds over our
area from the west. A stronger cold front moves through over the
weekend. The result will be below normal temperatures during the
Friday-Monday period with dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Prevailing VFR conditions through the morning but
expecting MVFR by this afternoon into the evening as rain
overspreads the area from south to north. A few elevated storms
possible but confidence not high enough for mention in current TAF
package.

&&

.MARINE....Low pressure will track from the eastern Gulf of Mexico
across central FL...then northeast over the offshore waters of GA
and the Carolinas thru Saturday. Winds will be easterly to
southeasterly Today...become more northeast to north northeast Wed-
Fri as the low passes to the south of the area...then shifts to
northwesterly as the low lifts northeast of the area. Depending on
how strong the low is as it passes...and the high that builds in
during the weekend...winds and seas could approach small craft
advisory criteria at times.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk into Wednesday due to a persistent
long period easterly swell.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  54  69  51 /  30  30  20  60
SSI  72  59  68  58 /  50  40  20  60
JAX  74  57  71  57 /  50  40  30  70
SGJ  74  61  72  60 /  60  50  40  60
GNV  74  57  72  57 /  60  40  50  70
OCF  74  58  75  59 /  60  40  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

PP/PW



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