Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 310810
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON INLAND STORMS...

...HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES INLAND IN AFTERNOON...

TODAY/TONIGHT...

A MEAN LAYER (1000-500 MB)RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH GA.  LIGHT
EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND HEATING
FAVORS DIURNAL STORMS AGAIN WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS AND OUT TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVE WHERE THE MERGER OF SEA BREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS WILL
OCCUR. PWAT`S ARE NEAR 2 INCHES AND WITH LIGHT STEERING FLOW...COULD
HAVE LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS.
MAX TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND AND A SHADE UNDER 90
AT THE COAST. HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END
DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...

THE MEAN LAYER RIDGE REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. A CONTINUED
LIGHT EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND HEATING
AGAIN FAVORS DIURNAL STORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE TOWARDS THE I-75
CORRIDOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVE WHERE THERE WILL BE THE
MERGER OF SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
MAX TEMPS CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND AND NEAR 90 ALONG THE
COAST. HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING.

TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH RIDGE N OF THE AREA WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE BUT SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DUE MAINLY DUE TO SEAS BREEZES AND DIURNAL HEATING...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES INLAND AREAS AT AROUND 30% OR 40% AT MOST...AROUND
20% AT THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. OVERALL PREFERENCE
TO THE GFS MOS OVER THE NAM. TUE NIGHT...ISOLD CONVECTION EXPECTED
IN THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  MEAN LAYER RIDGE
AXIS N OF THE AREA BEGINS TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE FORECAST REGION AS
A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHES SRN FL AND THE
BAHAMAS. LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...WED-SAT.
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WED AND THU SHOWING MEAN LAYER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING FURTHER AWAY TO JUST NW OF THE AREA WHILE
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) FEATURE MOVES UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE OVER FL AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE TUTT MOVING TO THE AREA LATE THU AND WAS
PREFERRED OVER THE ECMWF BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. A DRY SLOT WELL
NW OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON WED TO ISOLD TO
SCT COVERAGE WHICH MAY LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THU AS WELL. DEEP E
FLOW WILL STILL FAVOR BEST T-STORM CHANCES INLAND AREAS. ON
FRI...THE GFS SHOWS A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE CHANCES WITH
LESS SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES OVER
SRN/CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL NUDGE UP POPS TO MID
TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. ON SAT...THE SW-NE ORIENTED TUTT FEATURE
WILL SHIFT WWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FL PANHANDLE BUT SOME
WEAKENING IN THE MID LEVELS STILL EXISTS OVER THE CWA WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DEEP LAYER
FLOW BECOMES LIGHT SLY...ALSO A MORE FAVORABLE REGIME FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
WED AND THU AND BECOME MORE TYPICAL ON FRI AND SAT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING PREVAILING MVFR VSBY AT GNV BETWEEN 08Z-13Z AND
OCNL MVFR VSBY AT VQQ BETWEEN 10Z-12Z FROM PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST COVERAGE AGAIN TOWARDS
GNV WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS MERGE. HAVE VCTS AT GNV
BEGINNING AT GNV AT 19Z. MAY ALSO NEED A VCTS AT VQQ. AMENDMENTS
FOR POSSIBLE IFR DUE TO TS POSSIBLE AT GNV BETWEEN 19Z-24Z.

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS MAINLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST 10
KNOTS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER DURING THE EVENING BUT BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING LONG PERIOD ESE SWELL AND AFTERNOON
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WARRANT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
LABOR DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  72  96  73 /  40  30  30  30
SSI  89  77  89  77 /  30  20  20  10
JAX  93  73  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
SGJ  89  75  89  74 /  30  20  20  20
GNV  93  71  93  71 /  50  40  40  30
OCF  93  72  93  72 /  50  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS




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