Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 221447
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.UPDATE...
MAIN STORY WILL BE SLOWLY DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD NORTH OF
DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. TODAY WILL
FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS AREA-WIDE WITH LIGHT RAINFALL ALREADY
BREAKING OUT ACROSS NE FL THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY SPREAD INTO
SE GA THIS AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 60S ACROSS
SE GA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS NE FL. THE E/NE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL MAKE FOR BREEZY CONDS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH
15-20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH AT THE BEACHES
AND INLAND WATERWAYS. FOR TONIGHT...STRONG DYNAMICS IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE RAINFALL AHEAD OF
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...WITH 2 DAY TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS
POSSIBLE. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS SE GA. WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT TO THE FL/GA BORDER BY SUNDAY MORNING. MAIN IMPACT TONIGHT
WILL BE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...HEAVY AT TIMES IN SOME LOCATIONS
ALTHOUGH LACK OF RAINFALL THIS FALL WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING PROBLEMS EXCEPT FOR THE USUAL LOCATIONS. SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR DEVELOPING SUPERCELL ACTIVITY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HI-RES MODELS WILL DIFFER ON DETAILS
AND TIMING OF THIS POTENTIAL...WITH SOME LIFTING SEVERE THREAT
RAPIDLY INTO SE GA BY THE AFTERNOON AND LEAVING NE FL JUST IN WARM
SECTOR WITH LESSENING RAINFALL CHANCES...WHILE SOME KEEP SOLID
RAINFALL SHIELD ACROSS SE GA THROUGH THE DAY WITH DISCRETE SUPER
CELLS PUSHING ACROSS THE FL/GA AND INTO NE FL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
DYNAMICS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN SE
GA THROUGH SUNDAY...HAVE LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT AND HOW IT WILL UNFOLD ACROSS NE FL/SE GA ON SUNDAY. MAX
TEMP FORECAST ON SUNDAY ENTIRELY UP TO HOW FAR THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH...AND FOR NOW LOWER 70S EXPECTED ACROSS SE GA AND WELL
INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS NE FL. BREEZY SE/S WINDS AT
15-20G25-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING
AS THE WARM SECTOR SPREADS NORTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL SLOW DOWN ONSET OF MVFR CIGS AS THEY DON`T APPEAR TO LOWER
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF MORE STEADY RAINFALL
AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF WARM FRONT. SOLID MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
RAINFALL TONIGHT WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
ADD TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
E/NE FLOW AT 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SE ON SUNDAY.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 5-7 NEARSHORE TO 7-10 FT OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORNING
BREAKER REPORTS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE BUILDING TO 4-6 FT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  60  71  66 /  20 100 100  60
SSI  68  63  72  65 /  30 100 100  50
JAX  70  64  77  67 /  40 100 100  50
SGJ  72  69  78  66 /  50  80  80  50
GNV  71  65  79  66 /  60  70  70  50
OCF  73  67  81  66 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/WALSH



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