Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 141940
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
240 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016


.NEAR TERM...

COASTAL TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE FL/GA LINE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH
COULD LEASD TO A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE COAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HEATING LEADING TO
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE A CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE SEA BREEZE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT...THEN ABOVE
ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A SHARP SHORT WAVE
TROUGHWILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW TRACKS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. 12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING AS MOST OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TUESDAY.
DYNAMICS AND SHEAR LOOK STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAK AND ELEVATED. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING FROM THE WEST EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE MILD AS COLD AIR
LAGS BEHIND FRONT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN 70-75
DEGREE RANGE WITH BREEZY WSW WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A NW FLOW ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE LEVELS WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE
GULF COAST REGION WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

A COASTAL LOW WILL LEAD TO A LAYER OF STRATUS AT AREA TAF SITES
TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG LIGHT FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. IN GENERAL
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING
MONDAY...EXCEPT IFR AT KSSI. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON...FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVES THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST TONIGHT...THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS AREA WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE WEST MID WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  40  70  56  70 /  10  40  80  20
SSI  44  63  53  68 /  20  30  80  30
JAX  44  71  59  74 /  10  40  60  30
SGJ  51  72  60  74 /  20  30  60  30
GNV  46  77  58  72 /   0  30  70  20
OCF  48  77  61  74 /   0  30  70  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/ZIBURA


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