Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 222320 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
520 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A massive upper level ridge of high pressure continues to dominate
the weather pattern across the region. As expected, a rapid warm
up was experienced today as warm westerly downslope flow boosted
highs into the mid 50s and 60s. This will continue Thanksgiving
with highs even a few degrees warmer than today. In fact, near
record highs expected in the lower 70s at some locations. A very
moist subtropical airmass resides across the western CONUS, so
despite drying downslope winds, humidity will remain fairly high
Thanksgiving across the area, with minimum afternoon humidity of
30 to 45 percent. This will preclude any elevated wildfire threat.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Only little changes were made to the forecast through the weekend.
Latest timing of the cold front will prompt cooler high across
the area Friday, albeit still above-normal, compared to
Thanksgiving Day, expect for locations in the extreme south.
Otherwise, windy conditions are expected Friday. Another marked
warm up is then anticipated on Sunday - highs 25-30 degrees above
seasonable normal values are expected in the eastern Panhandle
and northwest NEB. Dry conditions are expected through Monday
followed by low-end chances across parts of northern NEB Tuesday-
Tuesday night. A cool down to near seasonable normal values is
forecast Tuesday.

The large scale pattern continues to have an upper-level high
anchored over the Pacific offshore waters of southern CA and
Baja California through Friday with the high then moving eastward
into central Mexico Sunday. A shortwave trough tracks eastward
over the top of the ridge across the Northern Plains and the Upper
Mississippi Valley Friday. Upstream, the upper-level ridge builds
in the western CONUS through Saturday. Thereafter another upper-
level trough will move onshore Sunday night and will brake down
the ridge early next week. Modest cold air advection occurs with
the front and will prompt highs to run cooler than the previous
day. Decent momentum transfer is expected with enhanced 850 hPa
winds forecast to peak 40 kts or greater. BUFKIT soundings shows
potential for mean mixed-layer winds to exceed 30 kts at some
locations with the strongest winds anticipated over north central
NEB. Coolest day area-wide follows then on Saturday, albeit
largely 10-15 degrees above seasonable normals. A lee-side trough
develops and sharpens Sunday near the Laramie and Front ranges.
This will support downsloping winds out of the west southwest
promoting increasing temperatures and drying. Highs Sunday are
forecast in the lower 70s in extreme southwest NEB and southeast
Panhandle to lower-mid 60s in north central NEB. Next upper-level
trough and associated cold front then affects the area late
Monday-Tuesday with some uncertainty with respect to timing.
Cooler highs, near seasonable normals, are expected Tuesday. In
addition, system will bring low-end precipitation chances to parts
of northern NEB Tuesday- Tuesday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 520 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A plume of upper level moisture will continue to spread high
clouds across wrn and ncntl Neb tonight and Thursday. Storm
systems will track north of the area and VFR is expected all areas
during this time.




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