Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 232015
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
315 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

A deep upper trough extends south through the Great Basin, with a
close low in eastern Nevada near the base of the trough. A deep
south southwesterly flow exists across the Central Plains with
deep convection ongoing across much of the region. A sharp
contrast in temperatures, from the lower to mid 50s across much of
western Nebraska, to the lower 80s just ahead of the front at
McCook, Lexington, and Albion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

A fairly strong disturbance located across eastern New Mexico
this afternoon will follow the mid and upper level flow through
western Nebraska tonight. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are
expected west of a Broken Bow to Atkinson line and have kept pops
at categorical overnight, with likely pops to the east. Rainfall
amounts overnight remain quite heavy with the highest QPF`s along
a line from Imperial to east of Valentine. In these areas,
widespread 1.5 inch amounts with locally over 2 inches expected.
Lows tonight will range from near 60 in the far southeast, to the
lower 40s in the northeast Nebraska Panhandle.

Sunday... The heaviest precip will be in the morning as the first
main band from Saturday night lifts northeast. Through the
afternoon, coverage appears to take on a more scattered nature as
forecast soundings bring in slightly drier air in the mid levels.
The best focus to persist will be across the southeastern zones
in vicinity of the surface front. Kept a slight chance for thunder
all areas with weak elevated instability present. With deep layer
shear, a few strong storms are possible. Rainfall amounts from a
half to three quarters of an inch expected east of highway 83,
while less than a quarter inch to the west. High temperatures will
again contrast from the low to mid 50s northwest to the upper 60s
southeast, as the front lacks an eastward push until mid
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Another rainfall band develops Sunday evening through the
overnight as the upper low lifts into southwest Wyoming. Likely
pops forecast east of Ogallala through Ainsworth. Drier air will
begin to work into southwest Nebraska after midnight. Lows in the
40s.

On Monday, the upper trough advances eastward, with lesser chances
for showers. The highest pops near 50 percent in the far eastern
zones, and a slight chance northwest. Cold air advection and
mainly cloudy skies will limit highs to the mid and upper 50s.

Tuesday, dry with highs moderating to the low to mid 60s and a
return of sunshine.

Wednesday through Saturday...Northwest flow aloft will develop as
a closed low stalls over the Four Corner Region. This will bring
dry conditions as series of cool fronts in about every other day
with pleasant temperatures mainly from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

IFR ceilings are forecast to persist the next 24 hours at the KLBF
and KVTN terminals. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will
become widespread late this afternoon through tonight, with likely
chances into Sunday morning. Visibility reductions are currently
from drizzle and fog, with additional reductions from periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall to occur.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Ongoing areas of brief heavy rainfall, and recent rainfall last
night, will bring the potential for excessive rainfall tonight
through Sunday night. In fact, WPC forecasting a slight risk for
excessive rainfall for all areas west of Broken Bow through
O`Neill. Then Sunday/Sunday night, the slight risk for excessive
rainfall will be near and east of North Platte through Ainsworth.
Some localized flash flooding is possible from this anomalously
wet pattern.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg
HYDROLOGY...Roberg



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