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000
FXUS63 KLBF 312115
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
315 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SWRN US WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE NOTED OVER
SRN ALBERTA. FURTHER EAST...A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED OFF THE COAST OF
CAPE COD. WV IMAGERY AS OF 19Z HAS THE NRN STREAM WAVE OVER NORTHERN
WYOMING. TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. THE FIRST EXTENDED FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. A SECOND AREA
OF SNOW WAS NOTED FROM THE PANHANDLE...ENE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ATTM. PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WAS PRESENT ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE THE SNOW. OVER THE PAST HOUR...THIS AREA ACROSS
NORTHERN CHERRY COUNTY...HAS BEGUN TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS MID
LEVEL MOISTENING COMMENCES. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST RANGED FROM
24 AT VALENTINE TO 35 AT BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO
WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...USHERING 20S AND TEENS.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN A COUPLE DIFFERENCE PIECES
IS WORKING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHICH HAS ALLOWED SOUTHERLY MOIST
PACIFIC/MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE TO PUSH UP THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MORNING PWATS ON THE KLBF SOUNDING WAS 0.63 INCHES...WHICH WAS 219
PERCENT OF NORMAL OR 3SD FOR JANUARY. WHILE THE MOISTURE IS
PLENTIFUL...THE LIFT IS ONLY MARGINAL...WHICH IS WHY SNOWFALL HAS
ONLY BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE FOR THE MOST PART AND NOT WIDESPREAD. A
PV ANOMALY OVER WYOMING WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECT THIS TO ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL. THE LATEST HRRR/RAP/NAM HAVE
ALL PICKED UP ON THIS ENHANCEMENT AND INCREASE SNOWFALL FOR THE
PANHANDLE AND SANDHILLS THIS EVENING...SO EXPANDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE SHERIDAN/GARDEN/ARTHUR. A SECONDARY WAVE
IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WHICH WILL CONTINUE LIGHT
SNOW. LINGERING SNOW IN THE MORNING ACROSS N CENTRAL AND WILL EXTEND
THE NORTHEAST 4 COUNTIES UNTIL 18Z. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY 3
TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH LOCALLY 6 OR 7 ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS WHICH HAVE ALREADY SEEN A COUPLE OF INCHES. FURTHER SOUTH
ONLY AN INCH OR TWO IS ANTICIPATED. ONE MORE THING IS NORTHERN WINDS
THAT INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY IN OPEN AREAS.

TOMORROW AS THE SNOW DEPARTS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL SOUTH.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS WITH A FEW LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECASTING CONCERN ALONG WITH THE POSSIBLE THREAT FOR PCPN ON
TUESDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOW
COVER...UNDERCUT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND -4 IN THE NORTHEAST...TO AROUND 10 IN THE FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. A FINAL NOTE...I WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF LOWS WOULD BE
EVEN LOWER GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWCOVER. ON MONDAY...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER MONTANA...DRIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH
OF THE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. H85 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND -2 TO -3C IN THE NORTHEAST...TO AROUND 4 TO 5C IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. WITH THE LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE...HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...TO THE LOWER 50S IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST. TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH WHERE SNOW COVER IS
EXPECTED TO EXIST MONDAY. INTO TUESDAY...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
BECOMES TRICKY AS THE GFS AND NAM SOLNS ARE DIVERGENT ON THEIR
SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT LOCATION OF AN ARCTIC FRONT TUESDAY.
ATTM...THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE DROPPING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. THE NAM AND LATEST CANADIAN SOLUTION KEEP
THIS FEATURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...PUSHING THIS SOUTH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HEDGING ON THE FRONT BEING QUICKER...IE EXPECTED SNOW
COVER...PLACES THE FRONT ACROSS THE NERN CWA TUESDAY. WITH THIS IN
MIND...ADDED SOME POPS TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 40 IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST.

LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IN THE EXTENDED...AN
ARCTIC FROPA WILL TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH A STRONG AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INHERITED
FORECAST HAD CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS ON TRACK GIVEN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS. ALL SAID...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ACCUMULATING SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHERE THE STRONGEST FRONTO BAND SETS UP.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS...IT IS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING EAST OF
THE ROCKIES FOR LATE INTO THE WEEK AND SATURDAY. WITH A DRY CONDS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...TRENDED TEMPERATURES
UP WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY 50S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

COMPLEX AVIATION WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MOST AREAS SEEING IFR
CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT...THEN LIFTING OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING TO MVFR. ALSO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AND REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO 3 MILES OR LESS AT TIMES. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW
WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS /GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS/ DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCAL AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER UNCERTAIN ABOUT SNOW TOTALS AT THE
TERMINALS RESULTED IN NO BLSN IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ004>006-008-009-022>027-035-094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ007-010-028-
029.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...MASEK