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000
FXUS63 KLBF 112320 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
620 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

SFC LOW HAS PUSHED INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO OKLAHOMA AND NRN TX. A WARM/QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS EAST OF THE LOW INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...WITH ANOTHER AREA ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S...AND A SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AIR AND AN END TO THE
PRECIP IS WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND PRECIP IS DIMINISHING
QUICKLY FROM THE NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION A LITTLE WEAKER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND WINDS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH ADV CRITERIA.
WITH PEAK MIXING PAST AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ON THE DECREASE...WILL
LET THE WIND ADV GO EARLY.

HIGH PRESSURES WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK SUBTLE
TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL
NEB. EARLIER THINKING WAS SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE WITH THE
WAVE...HOWEVER THE DRY AIR HAS BEEN STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BL
CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY DRY AND DOUBT THE WEAK WAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE DRYNESS. TEMPS DROP INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT.

SKIES CLEAR FOR TOMORROW WITH TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY. HIGHS SHOULD
EASILY RETURN TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AS WESTERN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WINDS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY OUT OF
THE NW FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

MID RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE MID RANGE IS TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS
TO AROUND 20 IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY GIVEN THE LIGHT WESTERLY
DRAINAGE WINDS. ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH
FROM ALBERTA INTO NRN MT...CARVING A TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES. EAST OF THE TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH NAM H85 TEMPS WARMING TO 8 TO 11C BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THE GFS WAS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND GENERALLY WENT WITH THE WARMER GFS
SOLN GIVEN THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS...LIMITED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LED TO
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE BEFORE
MENTIONED WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...FORCING A
DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BREEZY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SO A FAIRLY
MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL END QUICKLY FRIDAY
MORNING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND SRN PLAINS. WEST OF THE TROUGH...CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER H85
TEMPS WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.

LONG RANGE...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SECOND...STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND WESTERN SLOPE OF COLORADO ON SATURDAY WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE THREAT FOR LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW CONTINUING IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. UNLIKE THE DISTURBANCE
THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS ONE WILL DROP A GLANCING BLOW OF ARCTIC AIR TO
THE REGION SAT NIGHT...SO PTYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
UPPER 50S AND 60S FOR MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

LOCAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS SRN NEB WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA SHORTLY.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING THROUGH ERN MT AND THIS
AREA OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC