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FXUS63 KLBF 081144 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
544 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAVE FROM BLACK HILLS
TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. NEXT WAVE PUSHING INTO NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NICE WAVE
OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES JUST STARTING TO PUSH ONTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF COLORADO. NAM LARGELY SILENT THIS MORNING AND GFS SEEMS TO
BE DOING BETTER JOB WITH SOLUTION TO CURRENT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
COLORADO ROCKIES. WILL TREND TOWARDS GFS SOLUTION. SHOULD BE A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING UNTIL STRONGER WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA LATE THIS MORNING. 250MB JET SPEED MAX 150KT+ THIS MORNING
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA NORTHERN KANSAS WILL ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW ENDING THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS
SOUTHWEST. LOWS TONIGHT FROM 13 BELOW OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY TO AROUND
5 BELOW SOUTHWEST AS SKIES CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER. AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TODAY.
HAVE AGAIN USED AROUND 18:1 RATIO BASED ON BUFR SOUNDINGS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY ON
MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE
MID-UPPER TEENS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A WEST WIND SHOULD PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY
AFTERNOON...WITH COLD AIR CONTINUED TO BE RECYCLED ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. ALOFT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
USHER THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY IN THE WAY OF QPF IS
ANTICIPATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS THE GREATEST LIFT REMAINS NORTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WIND SPEEDS ARE SHOWN TO INCREASE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE WAVE HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING ABOVE 0F FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH A
GREATER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND ON
TUESDAY...GREATER MIXING AND WEAK WAA SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
NOTICEABLE WARM-UP...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS
THE NORTH...TO POSSIBLY THE MID 30S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWEST.

AN ADDITIONAL NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
TO FOLLOW.  SUB-ZERO LOWS MAY BE IN STORE FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES
ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER AS
WELL...WITH MID TEENS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...AND MID 20S FOR OUR SOUTHWEST.  THE MID RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT QPF ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY....BUT PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS REVEAL LIMITED DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE.  THERE IS
HOWEVER WEAK LIFT WITHIN A SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE /WHICH IS
NEAR THE SFC/...THUS NOT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES WOULD BE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS POINT IN TIME.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS IF SNOW WERE TO FALL.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN TO MODERATE WITH MOST
LOCATIONS NOTING HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING.  THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES
TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA TODAY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORIES WITH SOME
PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
GRADUALLY ENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING VFR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...POWER