Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLIX 280420
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1120 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE JUST BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BASINS ON THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA. A
FEW COULD INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS BUT ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AND BEGIN DISSIPATING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND PROVIDE
CONVECTIVE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MID TO UPPER 90S PERSISTING. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
LOW TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS WILL BRING AFTERNOON HEAT INDICIES TO AROUND
105 DEGREES... +/- 3 DEGREES.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT BACK WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION THRU THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL OPEN THE CWA BACK UP TO TYPICAL
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE WED ONWARD. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF COVERAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO DRIFTS NORTH AND STRETCHES SW TO NE WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY & INTO THE WEEKEND.

MEFFER

AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SCATTERED CU FIELD RANGING FROM 4000
TO 6000 FEET WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN HOURS. SKIES SHOULD TURN
CLEAR AFTER 00Z AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
PATCHY FOG AT KMCB AND KHUM AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW...BUT RISK IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IF FOG FORMS...
VISIBILITIES MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO AROUND 3 MILES. OVERALL...A BENIGN
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 32

MARINE... WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...10 KNOTS OR LESS...AND RATHER VARIABLE IN NATURE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY MID WEEK...A BROAD SURFACE LOW
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL DRAW WINDS
INTO IT WHICH WILL RESULT IN NWRLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE APPROACH OF COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WEST FLOW WELL OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH FEATURES WILL NOT MEET OR EXCEED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FROM RED               RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  99  76  96 /  10  10  10  20
BTR  76  98  78  98 /  10  10  10  20
ASD  77  97  79  97 /  10  10  10  20
MSY  78  95  79  96 /  10  10  10  20
GPT  78  95  79  95 /  10  10  10  30
PQL  77  96  79  96 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.