Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
FXUS64 KLIX 260105
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
805 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
The airmass is similar to the past few days and the sounding this
evening remains dry and stable. PW is below average at 0.6 inches
and there is a broad elevated inversion near the 850 mb to 700 mb
layer. Winds are easterly to 650 mb then switch to westerly above.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 256 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/
High pressure centered south of Hudson Bay in Canada extends
southward to cover much of the eastern half of the country.
Shortwave moving out of the Rockies spreading quite a bit of
cirrus cloud cover across the Southern Plains states. Locally,
skies are mostly clear with most temperatures in the lower 80s.
Away from marine influences, dew points are in the 40s this
Only system really to speak of in the short term is the shortwave
currently moving out of the Rockies, which will move through the
Lower Mississippi River Valley tomorrow night into Thursday. The
persistent easterly flow over the northern Gulf of Mexico may
provide a little bit of moisture for a few showers or patches of
light rain, primarily Wednesday night and Thursday. Have scaled
back the mention of precipitation during the daytime hours
tomorrow with little or no precipitation over land tomorrow. Will
carry slight chance of showers for much of the area tomorrow night
and Thursday. Rain amounts will be very light, and won`t do
anything for the recent spell of dryness. Expect high temperatures
to continue to be in the lower and middle 80s through the end of
the work week. Overnight lows tonight will be similar to this
morning, but 5-8 degrees warmer on Thursday and Friday mornings
due to a good bit of cirrus cloud cover which will retard
radiational cooling. 35
Weak upper ridging over the Gulf Coast States should keep the area
dry over the weekend. Beyond Monday, some differences in the
medium range model solutions exist. The ECMWF keeps ridging over
the southeastern portion of the country through the entire work
week, which would mean dry weather for the local area. The GFS
solution is further east with the ridging, bringing southwesterly
flow to the area, with perhaps a chance of rain by the middle or
end of next week. For now, have continued the previous forecast
trend which resembles the ECMWF solution. Not much day to day
change in temperature forecast with either model solution. 35
VFR conditions will prevail the rest of the afternoon and through
much of the night. Very patchy fog might once again form at the
typical fog prone sites of KMCB and KHUM toward sunrise tomorrow
morning bringing MVFR visibility restrictions. While VFR
conditions are then forecast to persist through the end of the
TAF period, clouds will begin to thicken tomorrow morning. A few
showers may also develop later in the morning, but have left out
mention at this time since confidence is low.
A surface high is centered way north of the region, over Canada, but
does extend southward to the Gulf of Mexico. This far south however,
the gradient is still quite weak. This ridge to the north will
continue east but still extend across the northern Gulf. This
solidify generally easterly flow across the local coastal waters
with a pressure gradient strong enough to produce winds up to around
10 knots over inland tidal lakes and sounds but 10 to 20 knots
further offshore. Long fetch and persistent easterly winds at those
speeds will increase and maintain wave heights into the 3 to 6 foot
range for the rest of this week. Exercise caution headline will
likely be needed off and on from midday Wed and into the weekend.
DSS code: Green.
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 51 81 61 82 / 0 0 20 20
BTR 52 83 62 83 / 0 0 20 20
ASD 55 82 62 82 / 0 10 20 20
MSY 61 82 66 82 / 0 10 20 20
GPT 59 81 64 80 / 0 10 20 20
PQL 53 82 60 81 / 0 10 20 20