Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 292043
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS RIDGING
BACK INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS VERY
WELL AN UPPER LOW OVER OUR EASTERN COASTAL WATERS. WE HAD ONE
THUNDERSTORM OVER MISSISSIPPI SOUND AROUND 2 PM...OTHERWISE ONLY
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MID AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN 85 AND 90 ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST...WHILE LEAVING
A SECOND WEAK UPPER TROF OVER TEXAS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THAT
SECOND UPPER TROF WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND CLOSE OFF OVER
WESTERN LOUISIANA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS TROF SHOULD KEEP ANY REMNANTS
OF FORMER TS ERIKA WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. DEEP MOISTURE IS
BEING SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE UPPER LOW...AND THIS
SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION RATHER ISOLATED THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. MAYBE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY
AS MOISTURE GETS LIFTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF SECOND UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MAY HOLD HIGH TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

WEAK UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES ACROSS THE
AREA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN...CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
BASES 040-060 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...GIVING WAY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A REPEAT OF MOSTLY HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS AND VERY
LITTLE TO NO SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS
OF 6 NM OR LESS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHORT LIVED AND
ISOLATED...THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE EXISTENCE AND POSSIBLE TRACKS
OF THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA. WHILE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED TO DIRECTLY
AFFECT OUR COASTAL WATERS...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SWELL AND
AREAS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  70  92  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  71  90  68  92 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  73  90  75  90 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  90 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  73  89  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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