Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 230855
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
355 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Note to media and interested others...missing ASOS observations
at NEW, ASD, MCB, GPT, MOB and others are due to a phone line cut
near the air traffic control center in Houston, where the obs are
routed through. We do have access by phone when necessary to
retrieve climate information, etc. Restoration time is unknown at
this point.

High pressure at the surface centered over Ohio extending
southwestward into Texas. Aloft, ridging extends from Lake
Michigan into Texas. A little bit of convection offshore, but none
over land early this morning. A few patches of fog, but nothing
widespread. Temperatures at 3 am are generally in the 70s, but
wouldn`t be surprised if one or two spots are in the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Today should be similar to Friday as upper ridging remains in
place for one more day. Convection should remain on the isolated
side, and be mainly during the afternoon. Highs should once again
reach into the lower 90s. A bit of a weakness in the upper
pattern over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will gradually drift
northwestward into the local area for Sunday and Monday, bringing
higher rain chances, in the 40-60 percent range. The additional
cloud cover/precipitation should hold high temperatures down 2-5
degrees. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

Upper weakness may remain close enough to retain isolated to
scattered convection on Tuesday, but ridging builds back in for
Wednesday and much of Thursday with little in the way of
convection expected. High temperatures will return to what we`ve
seen the last day or two, near or slightly above 90 degrees.

Once Hurricane Maria finally moves northeastward out of the
western Atlantic around Thursday or so, a strong upper trough is
expected to develop over the eastern third of the country. Models
are having a little difficulty agreeing on the exact timing of a
cold frontal passage right now, but at some point Thursday or
Friday, cooler and drier air will begin to move into the area.
Little in the way of precipitation is expected with the frontal
passage. By the time we get to Saturday, overnight lows may
actually fall into the 50s across the northern half of the area,
with highs in the lower 80s. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

KMSY and KBTR ASOS and KHDC AWOS are the only TAF airports that have
observations transmitting, so have dialed into the other sites to
receive observations. At 0830z, the only TAF airport with MVFR was
KMCB with VSBY 5SM BR while all others remained VFR. It is possible
a few additional airports could see VSBYS drop to 3 to 6 NM in BR/HZ
before 13z, otherwise expect VFR to prevail through the day and
most of tonight. Isolated, mainly afternoon SHRA/TSRA is possible
today, but the probability is too low for mention in the TAFS at
this time. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

A large ridge of high pressure covering most of the eastern U.S. is
expected to persist through early next week. The pressure gradient
is expected to tighten today into Sunday as minor low level/surface
wave features in the easterlies (inverted troughs) move west across
the northern Gulf. This pattern will cause easterly winds to rise
into the 10 to 15 knot range across most waters with seas building
to 2 to 3 feet over most of the open waters later this morning or
afternoon and continuing into Sunday.

High pressure is then expected to rebuild back into the central Gulf
coast region again Monday through Wednesday while Hurricane Maria
moves very slowly north off the southeast Atlantic coast. This will
result in a return to lighter winds that are variable in direction
and flatter seas across the central Gulf coast region. A fairly
strong cold front is expected to move through the region late in the
week which will bring rising northerly winds and higher seas
offshore again. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  69  87  68 /  20  10  40  30
BTR  90  71  89  70 /  20  10  40  30
ASD  90  71  86  71 /  20  10  40  30
MSY  89  75  86  75 /  20  10  40  30
GPT  88  72  85  72 /  20  10  50  30
PQL  90  70  85  70 /  20  10  50  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


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