Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 290533
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1133 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.AVIATION...
A NARROW SWATH OF VFR CLOUD DECKS BASED AROUND BKN070 IS EXPECTED
TO FILL AND LOWER STEADILY TO IFR BKN-OVC005/009 WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME SLOW BUT
STEADY LIFTING OF CEILINGS TO VFR AFTER 18Z BUT LOWER TO IFR
LEVELS NEAR THE END OF TAF VALID TIME. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING DEPICTED A MOIST COLUMN UP THROUGH 675 MB WITH
DRIER LAYERS IN THE MID LEVELS ABOVE AN INVERSION LOCATED BETWEEN
650 AND 675 MB. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WAS 1.42 INCHES.
NORTHERLY FLOW WAS OBSERVED NEAR THE SURFACE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
AT ALL LEVELS ABOVE THE NEAR SURFACE. 11

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT IS JUST PAST NEW ORLEANS AREA MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
EAST THIS AFTN. THE PERSISTENT SEA FOG OVER THE LAKES AND SOUNDS HAS
FINALLY LIFTED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS COOLER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT FOR
THE NEARSHORE AREAS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW OVER SOUTH TX WILL
CROSS LOUISIANA TONIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
1/10 TO 1/4 INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT IN MOST AREAS.

STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION BUT WILL BEGIN
TO SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STEADILY DRIES OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. WILL
FINALLY SEE SOME DECENT SUNSHINE TUESDAY AS PWS DROP TO AROUND A
HALF INCH. A REINFORCING SURGE OF POLAR AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TUE
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS A 1040 MB SFC HIGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DIP CLOSE TO FREEZING
ACROSS THE SW MS COUNTIES...WITH MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE 50S.

LONG TERM...
BREEZY/CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEW YEARS EVE WITH LOWS
IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S AREA WIDE. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED NEW YEARS DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THU NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION
BEGINNING IN EARNEST ACROSS THE CWA. A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS RESULTING IN A RAPID DEEPENING OF MOISTURE (PWS INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES BY 12Z FRIDAY). EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS EAST
ACROSS TX/OK SATURDAY WITH ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ECMWF SHOWS IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM (CWA IN THE RRQ OF 150 KT 300 MB JET) WITH THE
GFS WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH. WARM/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN GOOD POTENTIAL FOR TSRA SATURDAY. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS THIS WEEK FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO NEXT SUNDAY GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM.

14/MM

AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE STEADILY IMPROVING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN. MOST TERMINALS HAVE VFR VIS BUT GPT
IS THE LONE HOLD OUT. EXPECT THAT TO COME UP SHORTLY AS NW WINDS ARE
COMING THAT WAY. CEILINGS ARE IN NO RUSH TO IMPROVE HOWEVER. EXPECT
LIFR TO IFR CIGS FOR THE MAJORITY IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH AND THUS -SHRA TO VCSH
SHOULD COVER IT. MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW.

MEFFER

MARINE...
COASTAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT VISIBILITIES HAVE
GENERALLY INCREASED TO ABOVE 1SM OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THIS
COINCIDES WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CWA. SO WILL BE CANCELING DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR COASTAL WATERS BUT
CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION OF FOG IN THE CWF AS HAZY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. COLD ADVECTION IS RATHER WEAK UNTIL TUESDAY...WHEN
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY. NORTHEAST WINDS LIKELY
TO STAY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NEXT
SATURDAY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  43  57  40  55 /  60   0   0   0
BTR  45  60  43  59 /  60   0   0   0
ASD  51  61  44  61 /  50   0   0   0
MSY  50  60  47  60 /  50   0   0   0
GPT  52  63  45  61 /  50   0   0   0
PQL  53  63  45  62 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









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