Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 011141
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
341 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE LKN CWFA THIS MORNING.
IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AXIS OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AT THIS TIME...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALL AROUND.
THAT WILL CHANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE DE-AMPLIFIES LATER TODAY. THE
RIDGE WILL RETAIN A LOW AMPLIFICATION PROFILE THROUGH TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR A DIRTY FLOW WHICH MEANS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
MOISTURE TO INFILTRATE NORTHERN NEVADA...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN MOST
VALLEYS AS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 6500 FEET PERIODICALLY
LOWERING TO 6000 FEET. FOR THE MOST PART PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOVER AROUND FREEZING
AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BREACH 50 DEGREES IN MANY SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA. WITH MILD AIR
IN PLACE SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS. BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...KEEPING THE WEATHER
MOSTLY DRY AND VERY MILD. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST
OF US AND WE START TO GET A STRONGER MOISTURE FLOW OFF THE
PACIFIC. THIS FAR OUT...SHORTWAVES ARE TOUGH TO TIME...BUT BEST
SHOT OF PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA. WOULDN`T BET ON IT THOUGH GIVEN THE FAST FLOW. WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS STAYING WELL TO THE WEST...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. RCM

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS NEXT 24 HOURS ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/93/93


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