Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 060947
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
247 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A DRYING TREND BEGINNING NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN TREND COOLER THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE
DAY REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. MODEST AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. A COUPLE STRONG STORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEVADA...BUT WOULD BE PULSE THUNDERSTORMS.
MAIN THREAT WILL BE SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS.
MINOR FLOODING COULD BE A POSSIBILITY AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE BEST INGREDIENTS SHOULD STAY IN RENO`S
CWA.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OR MINOR FLOODING WILL AGAIN
BE A THREAT. PWATS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 0.8 TO 1.0 INCH
RANGE...WITH MODEST INSTABILITY. A COUPLE STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING. TUESDAY WILL ALSO SEE SOME
BETTER UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP. THE MODELS
ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE FROM ABOUT 250 MILES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENT DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT ALL OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL  NEVADA. HOWEVER CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE
FOR THE MOST PART.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AS LOW PRESSURE EJECTS
INLAND ACROSS THE SIERRA-NEVADA RANGE THEN THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN...WIND WILL BE THE BIG ISSUE AS GUSTS EXCEED 45 MPH IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEVADA. CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE LKN CWFA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTER THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE...A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA BUT FOR THE MOST PART THINGS WILL
SETTLE DOWN A BIT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK INTO THE
90S.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN MONDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. ALL TAF SITES COULD BE
AFFECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NEVADA. SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER. PWATS BACK OFF A LITTLE...SO STORMS
WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS FIRE ZONES
454/457...WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING
COULD BE A CONCERN. RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODEST
THROUGH MID WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY BACK INTO
NEVADA...WITH DRIER STORMS LIKELY. WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BE QUITE GUSTY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

94/92/92/94



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