Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 012110
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
210 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS NEVADA...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON, THIS TIME
FAVORING THE SW CWA. WITH THE LOSS OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM, AND A
DEGRADED MOISTURE SUPPLY, THUNDERSTORMS WERE MUCH SLOWER TO GET
GOING TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 8 PM, BUT
TRIMMED BACK POPS ACROSS ELKO COUNTY WHERE DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD (PW DOWN TO 1/2 INCH PER 12Z GFS).

ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEVADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE IMPROVES MARGINALLY ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
VERY STRONG MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TRACK NORTHWARD, NEAR SAN DIEGO SATURDAY, AND ENTERING SOUTHERN
NEVADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IN THE GRIDS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, FOCUSING ON AREAS
WHERE NAM/GFS INSTABILITY FIELDS OVERLAP. ADDED A MENTION OF HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL BOTH DAYS, ALTHOUGH THE LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME IS WHEN HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS MOST
LIKELY. WITH THE ADDITIONAL FORCING OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
FROM THE SOUTH, INTERACTING WITH A STRONG INJECTION OF RICH
MONSOON MOISTURE, 12Z GFS SUGGESTS FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA BY SUNDAY EVENING. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO FROM 12Z ECMWF, PLACING ITS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR
TONOPAH LATE SUNDAY, AND STRONG LIFT OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER
CENTRAL NEVADA. NOW THAT WE ARE IN THE 48 HOUR WINDOW, DECIDED TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL
NEVADA. HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN NEVADA EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ON MONDAY, AS DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN.  TURNER

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY PROVIDING A JUICY ATMOSPHERE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1 INCH FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN. WEAK TROUGHINESS AND INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 3/4 INCH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE AT THE KELY/KWMC TERMINALS AT ABOUT 20-30 PERCENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. CONVECTION
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF PW,
FORCING, AND ASSOCIATED COVERAGE. MOST STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY,
TREND TOWARDS WET, AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUTSIDE OF RAIN CORES WILL POSE A NEW FIRE START RISK.
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES MORE PROBABLE ACROSS FWZ 467/468 (HUMBOLDT
COUNTY) WHERE PW IS MORE MARGINAL. MOISTURE QUALITY INCREASES
ACROSS ALL FWZ BY SUNDAY EVENING, WITH PW APPROACHING/EXCEEDING
ONE INCH, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING LIKELY, INCLUDING NEAR ANY BURN
SCARS. CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50
MPH, AND WILL POSE A RISK FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD. OTHERWISE, WINDS
OUTSIDE OF STORMS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/91/91/99




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