Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 200900
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN OCTOBER REALITY
CHECK TO NORTHERN NEVADA...WITH RAIN AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY. PLEASANT WEATHER WILL QUICKLY RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ONCE AGAIN REVEALS CLEAR AND QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS NEVADA THIS MORNING, WHILE A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
IS CHURNING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF EUREKA, CALIFORNIA.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CHANGE NEVADA WEATHER RATHER DRAMATICALLY ON
TUESDAY.

TODAY...BREEZY TO WINDY AND WARM. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 700 MB TEMPS
AND THICKNESS TODAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY, AS SUCH TODAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLOSELY MIRROR THOSE SEEN YESTERDAY. MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AFTER NOON, WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 20-30
MPH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL OCCUR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A WIND ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED. HIGH
CONFIDENCE NEVADA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL
ARRIVE ON THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AROUND 5 PM, BUT
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE SIERRA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT QUICKLY ACROSS NW NEVADA
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE SHARP PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AXIS NEAR A WINNEMUCCA-AUSTIN LINE BY 5 AM TUESDAY. LIFT
WILL BE STRONG AHEAD OF THIS NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE, AND
CANNOT RULE OUT RUMBLES OF THUNDER TUESDAY MORNING DESPITE IT
PASSING DURING THE CONVECTIVE-MINIMUM MORNING HOURS. INCREASED
RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, TO THE DEFINITE CATEGORY WHERE FGEN FORCING WILL BE
STRONGEST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA. RAIN AMOUNTS NEAR 0.10 INCH
WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80, WITH AROUND 0.25 INCH MOST
LIKELY ACROSS NW ELKO COUNTY, NEAR THE OWYHEE DESERT. 00Z ECMWF
HAS FINALLY TRENDED TOWARD THE STRONGER/WETTER SOLUTIONS OF THE
OTHER MODELS, SO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ABOUT A 12-HOUR PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA EARLY TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
TO NEAR 7000 FT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY, AND AM EXPECTING 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW ON THE SANTA ROSA, INDEPENDENCE, JARBIDGE AND RUBY MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FT.

A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BRING AN OCTOBER REALITY CHECK ON
TUESDAY, WITH 700 MB TEMPS FALLING BELOW 0C ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. COUPLED WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN, MOST VALLEYS
WILL HOLD IN THE 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE OF PACE.

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY, EXITING NEVADA NEAR POCATELLO
IDAHO BY 5 PM. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL EAT AWAY
AT THE CLOUDS QUICKLY, WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY
MORNING EXPECTED. MANY VALLEYS WILL FREEZE WITH LOWS WELL DOWN
INTO THE 20S, PERFECTLY NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

WEDNESDAY...MILD AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH GFS MODEL MISSING
WILL BE LEANING ON PERSISTENCE AND THE EC. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
NEVADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE CWA IS BETWEEN A
TROF IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL US.
EXCEPTION IS A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY ON SATURDAY. GEM AND THE EC BRING A
TROF AXIS ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY FOR VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL TIMING DISCREPANCIES AS TO WHEN
THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA. HIGHS MUCH COOLER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH IS
MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  JH

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH
THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY THEN BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY.  JH

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87





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