Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
000
FXUS65 KLKN 281144
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
344 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW INCREASES FRIDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS AGREE VERY WELL
THROUGH SHORT TERM APART FROM A FEW SMALL DETAILS SUNDAY. THERE
ARE SOME ISSUES UPSTREAM THAT MAY END UP DIFFERING WITH THE
MODELS...WHETHER THEY AGREE WITH EACH OTHER OR NOT.

ONE OBSERVATION MIGHT BE THAT THE MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT THE
RIDGE AXIS TO BE EAST OF THE CWA...OVER IN WESTERN UTAH...WHEREAS
THE WV DEPICTS IT ABOUT 100 WEST OF THERE IN EASTERN NEVADA. WITH
SUCH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THIS DOES NOT MEAN MUCH
FOR THE EARLY FORECAST.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE BUT MOVING
STEADILY TOWARD WEST COAST. THIS FEATURE...AND UPSTREAM
ONES...HAVE A RATHER COMPLICATED STRUCTURE. A FEW DAYS AGO...THIS
TROUGH HAD A MODERATELY DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION EXTENDING TO
NORTH OF HAWAII. TODAY...IT`S BROKEN INTO THREE PIECES AND
EVOLVING/DEVOLVING OVER TIME. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A DRY SLOT
MAY REACH WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON...DEPENDING
ON IF IT STAYS INTACT ON ITS JOURNEY WEST. IT`S ALSO POSSIBLE THAT
THE DEEP TROUGH OFFSHORE COULD END UP DIGGING AND DRAGGING MORE
GULF OF ALASKA MOISTURE SOUTH INTO ITS CLUTCHES.

AT THIS TIME... THE FORECAST BANKS ON MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE
MAKING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BEGINNING LATE
FRIDAY...INCREASING SATURDAY...AND WANING A BIT SUNDAY. HAVE MADE
A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST...SUCH AS TWEAKING POPS UP A HAIR IN
FAR WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...AND DOWN A LITTLE IN NORTHERN
HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
DOES NOT CHANGE THE FACT THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO BEGIN WITH...CHANGING TO SNOW AND ACCUMULATING
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS....ESPECIALLY ABOVE ABOUT 6000 FEET...BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS IN MOST OF
ELKO COUNTY BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING EARLY. SHOULD BE
A WET SNOW WITH EITHER LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASS AND DESERT
FLOORS...VERY LIMITED IF ANYTHING ON ROADS IN VALLEYS. SUMMITS MAY
SEE ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET TO THE TUNE OF A COUPLE INCHES
STORM TOTAL BETWEEN SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ROAD
TEMPS WILL MEAN EVERYTHING. AFTERNOONS SNOWS WILL EITHER MIX OR
MELT AS THEY HIT SURFACES FOR SLUSHY CONDITIONS.

FURTHER NORTH...HIGHLAND AREAS BETWEEN MOUNTAIN CITY/OWYHEE AND
JACKPOT WILL SEE A FEW INCHES OF STORM TOTAL SNOW. WINDS PICK UP
SATURDAY AS FRONT DROPS WITH COLDER AIR...BRISK AND RAW SATURDAY.

WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR WATCH AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL PRODUCE A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK JUST AS A
HEADS UP FOR THE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THINGS WILL START OFF ON AN IMPROVING NOTE AS ONE PIECE
OF ENERGY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
LOWERING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO
THE VALLEY FLOORS SUNDAY NIGHT...SO MAY HAVE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES.
HEIGHTS BUILD MONDAY AS A RIDGE STARTS NUDGING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST AHEAD OF A LOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE WILL
FORCE MOISTURE NORTH OF OUR REGION AND SHOULD ALLOW THE CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO GENERALLY END AND CLOUDS TO BREAK. THE APEX OF THIS
IMPROVEMENT APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY THE LOW WILL
START APPROACHING THE COAST...WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS
LOW WILL GRADUALLY OPEN UP INTO A BROAD TROUGH BUT NOT BEFORE
EJECTING SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS
NEVADA...STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION. ONE POSITIVE NOTE IS THAT THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BRING WARMER AIR WITH IT WHICH WOULD KEEP SNOW
LEVELS ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS...RESULTING IN MINIMAL TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BEYOND THURSDAY A DRYING TREND APPEARS PROBABLE. RCM

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW 30 KNOTS. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

98/93/93



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.