Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 282244
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
344 PM PDT Thu Jul 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Monsoonal moisture moves into central Nevada on Friday
and spreads into northern Nevada on Saturday. High based and
mainly dry thunderstorms will develop over central Nevada Friday
afternoon. Thunderstorm activity accompanied by gusty winds will
increase on Saturday. Hot weather will continue through the
weekend, but a little cooler conditions will be expected next
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday.
Elevated moisture circulating around the heat dome has reached
central Nevada. Isolated thunderstorms will possible across the
southern portion of the forecast area. This same area is expected
to have additional high based storms on Friday afternoon/evening.
Sufficient moisture and slightly higher convective potential
suggests more lightning strikes can be expected. See fire weather
discussion below for additional details.
A weak short wave rotating around the high pressure dome moves
across northern Nevada on Saturday. In advance of this wave,
moisture profile is improved with lower cloud bases expected
across central Nevada. However, bases are still elevated,
especially across the northern portion. (This has consequences
for fire weather and see discussion below.) With precipitable
water around 0.75 inches across the north, thermodynamic profiles
still show inverted-v sub-cloud signature that favors gusty
outflow winds. Any rainfall will favor the higher mountainous
Hot afternoon temperatures continue and the heat advisory is
warranted, especially that tonights lows may be slightly higher
than last night. More cloud cover on Saturday does mean some
slight relief from the hot daytime weather can be expected.
.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday.
Pattern in the models remains the same with the upper level ridge
shifting to the east during Saturday night and into Sunday. This
will keep the monsoonal moisture over the region which will lead
to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of
the area. These thunderstorms will have a weak steering flow of
10-15 knots but the high base over dry air should limit the amount
of rain reaching the surface. The main threat from the convection
will be strong winds cause by downburst. Hot temperatures will
remain in the area with many areas expected to see mid to upper
Monday through Thursday the models continue to move the upper
level ridge to the east while building a trough over the pacific
northwest. This pattern should move some of the monsoonal
moisture off to the east across most of northern and western NV
while still retaining some moisture over White Pine and
east northern Nye Counties. While not as extensive of a moisture
field as the one that was present during the weekend it should be
enough to cause isolated showers and thunderstorms across White
Pine and east northern Nye Counties. The moisture should keep the
highs a little cooler in upper 80`s to mid 90`s across NV.
.AVIATION...VFR conditions will persist into tomorrow. Mid-level
moisture will cause TS across White Pine and northern Nye
Counties. Tomorrow more extensive coverage of TS and mid level
cloud decks are expected. KELY will continue to have high density
altitudes due to the hot conditions.
Red flag warning has been hoisted for the central Nevada highlands
(zones 454 455 457) given ample dry fuels. Areal coverage of
thunderstorms is expected to expand beyond critical thresholds
(greater than 15 percent). Although this is not a certainty,
conditions are ideal that any lightning strikes will be capable of
igniting fires. High based thunderstorms and steep afternoon lapse
rates will trigger afternoon storms, especially over the high
terrain south of highway 50.
An embedded short wave trailing across northern Nevada on Saturday
provides a better trigger for storms across the entire region.
Cloud bases over the central Nevada highlands are expected to be
lower and areas of wetting rains will be possible. Farther north,
PWAT values will be lower and thunderstorms will be more of the
erratic gusty wind variety with little rainfall. Therefore a fire
weather watch for dry lightning on Saturday has been issued for
zones 468, 469, and 470.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for Eastern Elko County-Eastern Humboldt County and
Northwestern Elko County-Southwestern and Central Elko County.
Heat Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for Humboldt County-
Northeastern Nye County-Northern Lander County and Northern
Eureka County-Northwestern Nye County-Southern Lander County and
Southern Eureka County-Southwestern Elko County-White Pine
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 11 PM PDT Friday for Central
Lander and Eureka Counties-Northern Nye County/Lander and Eureka
Counties South of Highway 50-White Pine County.