Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 082225
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
225 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL BUT DRY
WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. IT IS CLEAR ACROSS MOST
OF THE LKN CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEVADA ALLOWING SOME
WISPY HIGH CLOUDS TO FLOW ALOFT OF EASTERN ELKO COUNTY IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RIDGE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A DEEP FOG BANK LYING IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WITH FOG
CONTINUING IN THE TWIN FALLS AREA.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER DIRECTLY OVER THE SILVER STATE THIS
WEEK WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR MOVEMENT. NOT ONLY WILL THIS BRING
A CLEAR SKIES WITH A LENGTHY DRY SPELL BUT WILL PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA DUE TO THE SUBSTANTIAL
SNOWPACK. EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS NIGHTLY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CRAWLING UPWARDS
TOWARDS THE 40 DEGREE MARK ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA...AND TOWARDS THE
50 DEGREE MARK THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO WITH LESS SNOW ON THE
GROUND. AS THE SNOWPACK SLOWLY DISSOLVES...PATCHY FOG WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY EACH MORNING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

OVERALL GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AS WELL AS DECENT AGREEMENT
AMONGST ALL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS LEADS A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM. COASTAL/ROCKY RIDGE PATTERN
DOMINATES FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE PERIOD..LEADING TO DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS AS 500MB HEIGHTS REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 572-586DM
RANGE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY
AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM SPLITS BEFORE
MOVING ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WHAT`S LEFT OF WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH THE STATE EITHER LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS USED. FOR THE MOST PART....MOST AREAS
WILL JUST SIMPLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
ELKO COUNTY ON EITHER DAY BUT ONCE AGAIN DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL
VERIFIES. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL BRIEFLY TURNS WEST TO
NORTHWEST. HERE`S WHERE THE MODEL DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW...WHICH FORMS FROM THE SPLITTING OF THE
TROF MENTIONED ABOVE. GFS...GEFS...AND GEM ENSEMBLE DEVELOP OR
INDICATE THE REAL POSSIBILITY OF A CUT-OFF LOW FORMING WELL
SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CA BUT DISAGREE ON THE MOVEMENT THEREAFTER.
THE EC FAILS TO DEVELOP ANY SORT OF UPPER LEVEL LOW...INSTEAD
PROGRESSES THE TROF EASTWARD WITHOUT SPLITTING IF MUCH AT ALL.
THIS LEADS TO MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON THE PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SINCE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
MEANS PICK UP THE CUT-OFF LOW MONDAY AND BRING IT ONSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT...PLACED LOW END POPS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...MEANING 40S AND 50S. A FEW AREAS MAY SEE TEMPS DROP A
DEGREE OR TWO SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER 500MB
HEIGHTS AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

FOG POTENTIAL...STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY AM WITH A WEAK INVERSION
IN THE SNOW COVERED VALLEYS AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE
TO MELTING SNOW; HOWEVER...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. STILL MAINTAINED VCFG
AT KEKO AS THE FLOW FROM SFC TO 10KFT AGL IS FROM A NNE
DIRECTION...WHICH COULD DRAW DOWN SOUTH A THIN LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM ID; HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL
HAPPEN. NEVERTHELESS...WILL KEEP IT IN THE TAF THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/85/85


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