Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 292219

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
319 PM PDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms across the state this
afternoon are expected to taper off by late evening. Shower
activity will linger across eastern Elko county Friday with gusty
winds developing across parts of Humboldt County in advance of the
next Pacific trough. A low pressure system will move through the
state next week bringing much cooler temperatures, showers and
higher elevation snow to Nevada early next week.


.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday. Mid-level moisture brought
in an upper-level system over the past 24 hours combined with day
time heating has resulted in fairly widespread convection over the
eastern half of the state. Weak steering flow has resulted in slow
moving cells and rain cores. Weak upper-level support and marginal
instability has limited convection to more of a pulsed mode so
sustained convection is not expected into tonight. Water Vapor
imagery shows a dry slot advancing eastward towards the CA coast.
THis feature is expected to bring in a drier layer aloft which
will tend to limit convection to eastern portions of Elko
County, but including the Rubies and Jarbidge area, Friday
and Saturday but the remainder of the state will remain dry.

Winds will increase ahead of the Pacific trough across northwest
NV Friday with winds of 20 to 30 mph expected across western
Humboldt County. Winds will increase statewide as a short wave
rounds the base of the trough but generally be limited to 15 to 20

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through next Thursday. There continues
to be minor differences in the model solutions with the upcoming
cold system set to arrive at the beginning of next week. For now,
there will be a short break in the weather on Sunday as southwest
flow remains over the forecast area. Winds will be breezy over the
region, with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Differences in
the track of this system is being seen between the models at this
time. 700 mb temperatures will drop to -3 to -6C depending on the
models, which means snow levels could be around 5500 to 7000 feet.
Have tried to go with a compromise in the snow level grids to
about 6000 feet or so during the Monday timeframe. Some locales
in the valleys, especially in the portions of southern Elko,
Lander/Eureka, and White Pine counties could see some light snow,
with the higher passes coming in with an inch or two of
accumulation. Morning lows for Monday ring in around the mid to
upper 30s with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.

There will be some lingering showers for Monday night and Tuesday.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 30s. For Tuesday through
Thursday, look for quiet conditions with highs in the mid 50s to
mid 60s and lows in the 20s and 30s.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue over all TAF sites during
the evening hours. Some breezy winds possible at all sites during
the early evening, but will diminish after 03Z. Will keep VCTS in
the KELY TAF for this evening as well.


.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty winds will develop ahead of an approaching
upper-level trough across fire zone 467 Friday. Both winds and
relative humidity are expected to reach critical levels across 467
with the highest winds expected across far western Humboldt
County so a Red Flag warning was issued. Southwest winds of 20 to
30 mph are expected with higher afternoon gusts, especially along
midslopes and ridgetops. Decreasing winds and temperatures over
the weekend will occur across the state as the trough approaches.
A low pressure system will move across the state Monday providing
valley rain showers and higher elevation snows above 6000 ft.
Models indicate the low will move steadily through Great Basin
early next week so a wetting precip event currently appear slim.


Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Friday for Central and
Western Humboldt County.



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