Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 272222
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
322 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
redevelop on Friday across portions of east central and northeast
Nevada. Thunderstorm coverage will expand farther north and west
on Saturday as an upper level system moves out of California into
the state. A ridge of high pressure will then rebuild over the
Great Basin next week which will cause thunderstorms to become
more isolated while maintaining above normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...This Thursday evening through Saturday.
Lingering moisture and weak instability will continue to generate
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions
of eastern Elko, White Pine, southern Lander/Euerka, and northern
Nye counties this Thursday afternoon/evening. Some storms could
still produce locally heavy rainfall and flooding concerns in
the southern part of the CWA. Activity will expand northward into
northern Lander/Eureka and much of Elko counites on Friday. A
Shortwave trough moving out of California will serve to expand
storm coverage farther north and west on Saturday as a broad lobe
of monsoonal moisture with PWs between 0.75 and 1.00 inch lifts
northward through central and northern Nevada during the afternoon
and evening. This will help to trigger isolated to scattered wet,
and to a lesser extent, dry thunderstorms across the CWA some of
which could produce locally heavy rainfall and the potential for
isolated flash flooding on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through next Thursday. Long term
models are trying to strengthen the high pressure system across
the southwest United States. Residual moisture beneath the high
pressure system will allow for some isolated thunderstorms to
form. Storm motions will be very slow underneath the ridge. Highs
will be in the low to mid 90s.

Sunday night into Monday. The ridge consolidates its position with
a central circulation somewhere in northern Nevada. Kept the
isolated thunderstorms in the forecast. It looks like it will
start to heat up with readings in the mid to upper 90s as a
result.

Monday night through Thursday. Models show the high continuing to
strengthen over the forecast area with afternoon highs responding
in kind, with readings in the mid to upper 90s through the period.
Have kept the threat for very isolated afternoon thunderstorms in
each afternoon, but the trend has been down over the last few
runs.

&&

.AVIATION...CIG/VSBY to remain VFR through the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms will be possible over the KELY site during the
evening hours. Main threat will be variable wind gusts from
thunderstorms to 35KT. Other airport locations will remain quiet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorm
threat will remain below RFW criteria for Friday. A few dry storms
could develop later Friday afternoon in southern parts of FWZs
469 and 470 and northern 454 along the leading edge of better
moisture to the south where storms should remain primarily wet
down in southern 454, 455, and 457. A shortwave trough moving out
of California on Saturday will serve to expand storm coverage
farther north and west during the afternoon and evening as a broad
lobe of monsoonal moisture with PWs between 0.75 and 1.00 inch
lifts northward through central into northern Nevada. This will
help to trigger scattered wet, and to a lesser extent, isolated
dry thunderstorms across the CWA some of which could produce
locally heavy rainfall and the potential for isolated flash
flooding particularly in burn scar areas. Best chance of dry
storms on Saturday will be in northwest Nevada in zones 467 and
468. Have held off on issuing a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday
per coordination with the GBCC, but will continue to closely
monitor and re- evaluate the situation on Friday morning.
Additonal storms are anticipated across northeast and east central
Nevada on Sunday before an upper ridge of high pressure rebuilds
over the Great Basin next week which will tend to limit
thunderstorm coverage to be more isolated and while maintaining
above normal temperatures.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

95/86/86/95


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