Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 232250
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
250 PM PST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A semi active weather pattern expected over the next
several days as multiple weather systems will move across the
Battle Born State. First weather system moves across Friday with
light precipitation followed by brief dry conditions on Saturday.
Next system moves in Sunday afternoon, continuing into Monday.
Look for dry conditions to return towards midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday. Some very light
precipitation lingers across eastern Elko county but will come to
an end this evening. The next system will move into the area from
the northwest late tonight. Expect light precipitation to fall
across areas north of I-80 through Friday mid day. A progressive
ridge will bring brief dry conditions on Saturday.

Next system has slowed from previous model runs and now appears
that a shortwave will eject out ahead of the main trough Sunday
morning with some light precipitation across northern NV. In
addition, winds will also be slow to strengthen and now expecting
the strongest winds to begin Sunday instead of Saturday afternoon.
The main trough swings through Sunday night and continues into
Monday. More details in the long term.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Thursday.

A quick moving trough will progress across the state Sunday night
into Monday bringing a mixed bag of precipitation and much cooler
air behind the cold front for next week. A few pre-frontal rain
showers will accompany robust southwest flow over the region but
rainfall totals are generally expected to be less than 0.05 inches
Sunday evening primarily in Humboldt county. The cold front will
swiftly move through the state Sunday night bringing much cooler
temperatures and rapidly falling snow levels. This will aid in
bringing snow to valley floors through Monday morning but
progressive nature of trough will limit overall valley
accumulations in northern NV to less than 1 inch. Appears GFS
solution is an outlier as far as timing and moves cold front
through the region much faster than other models. Ensemble
guidance suggests a delayed arrival of the cold front compared to
the GFS by 6 to 10 hours so have adjusted forecast to reflect a
later arrival of cold front and attendant weather. Advisory level
northwest winds still look possible with the system Monday
primarily across the downslope region of eastern Elko county
before diminishing Tuesday.

High temperatures will drop from the 60s over the weekend to the
40s Monday and Tuesday. Similarly, lows will drop 20 degrees into
the teens and 20s by Tuesday morning. A gradual warming trend
will commence Tuesday as ridging builds back over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Mid-level to high-level clouds will be present through
Friday. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at all terminals
through the next 24 hours with generally light winds across the
state.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

89/93/93



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