Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 272330
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
330 PM PST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A trough of low pressure will slowly move out of the
Great Basin tonight and tomorrow, taking the chance for showers
along with it. Dry conditions are expected beginning mid-week
with a warming trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday. The cold front that moved
through Elko early this morning has now cleared the Ely area.
Steady snow associated with the front has tapered off as the
trough axis is somewhere over southern Nevada this afternoon.
Showers will linger through at least tomorrow afternoon. The
models are in pretty good alignment for the short term period
however the consensus may be a little slow with the mean trough
axis on the initialization. Drier and warmer conditions are on
the way but high flows along the lower Humboldt River will
persist.

Tonight through Wednesday morning. The trough axis may be a bit
further south than the models are depicting but it is ill-defined
due to a few weak impulses yet to dive into the trough. These
impulses of energy will keep light showers going with a general
trend towards tapering off lastly over northeast Elko County
Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Maybe an inch of snow here and
there is all the accumulation that is expected. High temperatures
will range from the mid 20s to the mid 30s. Low temperatures will
dip into the single digits and teens.

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Finally a dry spell returns.
Weak ridging will bring not only dry weather but a warming trend.
High temperatures will range from the mid 30s to the mid 40s. Low
temperatures will be in the single digits and teens.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday. High pressure over
the cwa Thursday evening will slowly break down Thursday night on
through the weekend as broad trough energy drops in from the
Pacific NW. There may be a few flurries over mountains of Humboldt
or Elko Counties on Friday afternoon, otherwise dry conditions
across the cwa through Friday night with clouds spreading in from
the northwest. Relatively low confidence with the timing and
amounts of precipitation Friday night on through the weekend as
the GFS and ECMWF models struggle to resolve the timing of the
troughs arrival. Both models do however show most precipitation
over northern NV, generally moving through between early Sunday
and early Monday producing somewhere between 1 and 4 inches of
snow to valleys locations north of Highway 50.

&&

.AVIATION...Light snow showers at times across the region through
Tuesday evening which may result in some reductions in vis and
cig.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The lower Humboldt River reach continues to flood.
The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is at Minor Flood stage and
receding. The Humboldt River at Comus is in moderate flood and
rising again. The morning report from Winnemucca is that the
water is still rising per the staff gauge reading along the
Melarkey Street Bridge...19.9 feet. Thus, minor to moderate
flooding can be expected all along the reach from Battle Mountain
to the Humboldt/Pershing County line for the rest of the week. The
gauge along the Owyhee River near Mountain City is showing some
signs of icing but so far the data is still reliable. No other
issues to report.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

92/96/96



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