Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 051733

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1233 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Thu May 5 2016

Area will be under nly flow within the highly amplified flow today.
The upper low will continue to sink swd today with a vort max
spreading clouds across the ern portions of the CWA today. A
separate s/w currently dropping swd into MN region is expected to
bring high clouds to portions of central MO late this morning into
the early afternoon hours. The ongoing precip associated with this
s/w is expected to dissipate over IA before reaching the CWA. Have
therefore gone with a dry forecast today.

Temps will be very similar to yesterday with little change in
airmass. However, have generally trended slightly warmer as less
cloud cover is expected today.


.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Thu May 5 2016

Surface ridge to remain over region through Friday. So expect dry
conditions and a quick warm up by Friday. Lows tonight will be in
the 40s with highs on Friday in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Forecast area to remain dry Friday night, but next weather system
will approach region with frontal boundary sinking south on
Saturday. Low level moisture on the increase, decent convergence
along boundary, and decent CAPES. Even though there is some
capping, believe scattered showers and thunderstorms to pop up
along and north of boundary, especially during the afternoon hours
on Saturday.

With upper level ridge over midwest and digging upper level trof
over western US, the chances of storms to persist through rest of
forecast period as frontal boundary wavers back and forth with a
series of shortwaves sliding through area. So it will not be a
continuous rain event through next week, but it will be an active

The warmest day still looks to be Saturday with highs in the mid 70s
to mid 80s, but remain a bit above normal through next Wednesday.



.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu May 5 2016

VFR through the period with a few diurnal cu and occasional
cirrus. Wind gusts to around 20 kts will subside after sunset and
then become lgt/var overnight due to the passage of a surface
high pressure center. Winds will become west-southwesterly
tomorrow morning with speeds AOB 10 kts.





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