Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 071803
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
103 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MCV CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS COLUMBIA MISSOURI WITH BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. AS EXPECTED COLD FRONT IS SLOWLING ITS PROGRESS SOUTHEAST
WITH IT NOW LOCATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO
QUINCY ILLINOIS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO THIS POINT HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NEAR TERM RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
THE BAND OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE ST. LOUIS
METRO THROUGH SUNRISE WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES ARE
TRICKY WITH THE FRONT...CLOUDS AND RAIN. ST. LOUIS IS STILL 80
DEGREES AT 3 AM IN THE MORNING. KEPT THE FORECAST NEARLY UNCHANGED
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE
LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE PRECIP CHANCES.

CDFNT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SWD TODAY AND PUSH BULK OF PRECIP S OF
THE CWA BY THIS EVE, OR AT LEAST ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
HAVE DELAYED TIMING OF PRECIP LIFTING NWD BACK INTO THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME QUESTION REMAINS HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIP WILL MOVE NWD AS THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LIFTS NWD
BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN ON WED AS THE SFC LOW PASSES THRU THE REGION.

WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS-IS FOR NOW, BUT MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED IN AREA AS WELL AS INTO WED NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS, HAVE CONTINUED A COOL TREND FOR WED DUE TO RA EXPECTED
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FROM PREV FORECAST AND
FUTURE UPDATES MAY NEED TO LOWER THESE TEMPS MORE.

FOR FRI AND BEYOND, MDLS PROG HEIGHT RISES THRU NEXT WEEKEND AND
HAVE RAISED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED MORE FROM
GOING FORECAST, BUT SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING PLACEMENT OF THE
SFC FNT. MDLS PROG THE FNT REMAINING JUST N OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE W,
AREA COMES UNDER NW FLOW AND SHUD ALLOW THE FNT, AS WELL AS STORMS,
TO DROP SWD INTO THE AREA.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED JUST SOUTH OF THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY POST FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT COU AND THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. UIN CLOUD CEILING SHOULD SCATTER OUT WITH THEIR
HAZE DISSIPATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON...OR AT LEAST THEIR CEILING
SHOULD RISE INTO THE VFR CATAGORY. SHOULD SEE THE CEILING RISE
INTO THE MVFR CATAGORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING
IN COU AND THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE CEILING AND VISIBILITY DROPPING AGAIN.
NLY SURFACE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO AN E-NELY
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD CEILING SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE
TO AT LEAST 1000 FEET LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE CEILING AND VISIBILITY
DROPPING AGAIN. NLY SURFACE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO A
NELY DIRECTION TONIGHT...AND TO AN ELY DIRECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE
     MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
     IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-
     MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE
     MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST.
     FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE
     MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
     BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY
     IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
     PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



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