Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 301123
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
623 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME A BIT BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
596 DAM HIGH CENTERED OVER SRN UT THIS MORNING WILL EDGE SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD AT H5 WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY ELONGATING ALONG A NW/SE AXIS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTINGLY...THE H2 HIGH CENTER EDGES
SEWRD TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS. THE UPPER FLOW HAS ALREADY BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING AND THIS IS EVIDENCED IN THE MOVEMENT
OF THE MCS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. H2 FLOW IS ACTUALLY
QUITE STRONG AND SET TO INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS BY 00Z WED.
VORTICITY MAX WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SW WITH SCANT LITTLE FORCING. THE PLURALITY
OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT A DRY PICTURE TODAY THOUGH LOOKING
AT FCST SOUNDINGS...THERE LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST SOME RISK OF
CONVECTION THOUGH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL MAKE IT HARD TO GET
GOING. WILL EDGE POP GRID UP JUST A TAD THOUGH WELL BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR THIS POTENTIAL. ANY ACTIVITY WHICH MIGHT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL. IT JUST ALL DEPENDS ON
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE TEMP PROFILE BETWEEN 10KFT AND 13KFT WITH
THAT THIN CU FIELD. WITH THE INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LACK OF
FORCING MECHANISM...WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY.

LONG TERM...
AFTER A DRY AND RATHER WARM WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGING RETROGRADING
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL ALLOW STEERING FLOW TO BACK
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EMBEDDED
UPPER IMPULSES BRINGING FALLING HEIGHTS LOCALLY WILL REINTRODUCE
STORM CHANCES PARTICULARLY FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT
PROPAGATES TOWARD THE REGION COURTESY OF CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW
RELOADING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THE COMBINATION OF
THIS LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE BEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TRAJECTORY SHOULD LEAD TO THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR QUICKER NORTHERLY VEERING OF
FLOW ALOFT...WITH THIS NOW LOOKING POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTACT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NOW
WITH CONTINUED PROXIMITY TO SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW.

UPPER RIDGE LOOKING TO MIGRATE EAST TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...LIKELY SQUASHING STORM CHANCES LOCALLY WITH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT. EVENING
FESTIVITIES THUS LOOKING LIKE ALL SYSTEMS GO AT THIS JUNCTURE. AFTER
HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY...A
WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH READINGS LIKELY IN THE
90S AREAWIDE BY THE END OF PEAK HEATING SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
CONTINUE TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING NEAR
OR JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE NEAR SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS COULD SEE SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVE THROUGH
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM BUILDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        90  66  95  66 /   0   0  10  20
TULIA         93  68  95  69 /   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     92  67  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     93  67  94  67 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       95  70  95  68 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   91  65  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    93  66  94  66 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     99  74  99  73 /   0  10   0  10
SPUR          92  69  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     97  72  97  72 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26



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