Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 210526

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1226 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Development of MVFR CIGS remains highly uncertain for the rest of
the early morning hours. Confidence is high enough to include a
mention of MVFR CIGS at KLBB and KPVW where observations suggest
the best chances to develop. However, these CIGS are expected to
be transient lasting only a few hours. A strong cold front will
quickly move through the region around 23Z to 01Z this evening
shifting breezy winds to the north.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017/

Mid-level subsidence was firmly in control of the region this
afternoon following a compact upper low currently crossing the
Wichita Mountains. Farther west, surface troughing will remain
poised across eastern NM through the night and keep breezy
southerly winds intact. This will serve to pull richer Gulf
moisture northward and even foster some low cloud development
before daybreak. By late morning, southwesterly flow will amplify
ahead of digging trough across the Four Corners, ultimately
driving the surface trough east across the South Plains. This
trough should assume a weak dryline structure by peak heating just
east of the Caprock. Although surface convergence is shown to be
rather lackluster, modest height falls with the approaching upper
trough could breed a few storms by early afternoon off the
Caprock. This ascent will only improve once a cold front dives
south from the Panhandle by late afternoon and bolsters
convergence within the moist sector. SBCAPEs of nearly 1500 J/kg
across our far eastern column of counties could easily support
some severe storms, but swift storm motions of 35-40 knots should
hasten their departure out of our eastern counties by the evening

Following Saturday`s trough, a protracted period of uneventful NW
flow will dominate much of the Great Plains through the upcoming
week. Sunday looks to be stellar as a dry surface ridge camps out
under full sun and light winds, but this ridge will exit Sunday
night ahead of another cold front for Monday followed by
progressive surface ridging. Overall, models and ensembles are
converging nicely towards a strongly positive PNA regime by mid-
to-late week as Pacific ridging amplifies considerably through the
Gulf of Alaska. Such meridional patterns are ideal for a deluge
of cP air through the Great Plains, and this appears to be the
case by Thursday or Friday complete with unseasonably cool
temperatures. Superblend reflects this temperature change well for
now, but should raw models continue to prog sub-zero 850 mb temps
by late week, then this would require considerable adjustments
lower in later forecasts.




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