Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 290440
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1140 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.AVIATION...
Strong thunderstorm activity has pushed east of KLBB/KPVW though
thunder remains at KCDS and will do so through at least 07Z.
Indications are that wrap-around low clouds and precipitation will
keep rain going at KCDS for much of the night and will bring low
stratus back into KPVW/KLBB. How long the stratus will hang around
on Wednesday and whether or not light rain will also be re-
introduced at KLBB/KPVW will be highly dependent on the track of
the upper level low, now across eastern NM, and its associated
moist conveyor to its north. A cold front will sweep through the
region on Wednesday bringing gusty winds for several hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1042 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

UPDATE...
Quick update to cancel the tornado watch a little ahead of
schedule. Although showers and thunderstorms will continue for
some time yet across the eastern zones, the severe weather risk
has now shifted east of the area where the stronger instability
still resides. We could see additional showers (perhaps a few
rumbles of thunder) redevelop from west to east across parts of
the Caprock late tonight (after midnight) as additional lift from
the upper low spreads across West Texas. Have adjusted the
forecast to reflect this as well to better account for recent
radar trends in the near-term.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 831 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

UPDATE...
Have begun trimming off the west side of the Severe Thunderstorm
(SVR) Watch as the line of storms moves east. We do plan on
allowing the remainder of the SVR watch to expire on time at 9 pm
unless trends change greatly. Still enough moisture/instability
and lift to support a few strong to severe storms as they advance
into the Rolling Plains late this evening. Only minor updates to
the remainder of the grids ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 706 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

AVIATION...
Tricky aviation forecast with convection, low clouds and gusty
winds all expected this TAF cycle. A thunderstorms is currently
in the process of exiting KCDS, but more upstream development
means off and on convection there well into the evening/overnight
hours. KPVW and KLBB are currently between activity, but
additional lift coupled with a Pacific front moving into the
relatively moist air lingering at the terminals will bring a good
chance of more showers/storms through the evening hours. There may
be a lull in activity late this evening (around and after
midnight), but more showers, perhaps a storm or two, will be
possible at the terminals around and after daybreak Wednesday.
Within the storms, gusty and erratic winds and hail will be
possible. Ceilings will vary from VFR to IFR through the evening,
with sub-VFR conditions also expected behind a cold front that
will move through the terminals Wednesday morning. Breezy
northerly/northwesterly winds will follow the front too.

UPDATE...
Have updated PoP, weather, temperature, wind and dewpoint grids
given recent trends and observations. Another round of lift moving
out of New Mexico, coupled with a Pacific front running into the
better low-level moisture/instability, will help provide
additional convection moving from west to east across the area
this evening. There is still enough instability and plenty of wind
shear to keep the risk of severe storms going this evening,
though the cooling boundary layer should tend to mitigate the
tornado threat with time. The updated products have been sent.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for the forecast will be in the immediate future
concerning severe potential. Storms have already been firing for the
past few hours and are expected to continue into the late
afternoon/early evening. Along with hail one of the main threats for
areas off the caprock is tornadoes as the warm front begins to push
northward and the dryline pushes eastward. The main area of concern
with tornadic activity will be along the triple point. One big
question concerning convection will be the redevelopment of
thunderstorms across the South Plains later this evening as the
dryline temporarily retreats westward. Most high-res models show
redevelopment of convection along the dryline as far west as the
TX/NM state line. Given that models are in a consensus with
redevelopment of convection along the dryline and the dryline does
show current signs of retreating likely PoPs will be extended
northwestward across the FA after 00Z but quickly drop off starting
around midnight from west to east. This will also be supported by
upper level lift moving in from NM that has already allowed for
convection to develop west of the FA.

For the long term there are no significant changes with the
exception of possible precip for later this weekend. Both global
models have come in much drier for the FA with more southwesterly
flow aloft. While PoPs are still present in the current forecast
they have been lowered to slight chance and may need to be dropped
depending on future evolution of the forecasted upper low.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/26



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