Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 180434

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1034 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018


VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. Southerly
winds will become breezy around 15-20 knots early afternoon.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/

Well, the rain has come and gone. The good news is a decent amount
of beneficial rain fell across much of the CWA. Areas across the
South Plains and far southern Texas Panhandle received more than
half to an inch overnight. But, unfortunately, all good things must
come to an end.

Today, the precipitation will move east and skies will clear. This
will allow for heating to occur. While, high temperatures will be
warmer than yesterday, weak cold air advection associated with a
front dropping across the area from the northeast will keep high
temperatures in the 60s.

Tomorrow, upper level southwesterly flow sets up across the region
as an upper level Pacific trough starts to drop down across the West
Coast. Simultaneously, a decent low level jet and a dryline feature
will develop across the western Southern Plains. The LLJ will help
deeper moisture return to the area. As a result 40 to 50 dewpoints
will be present across the FA. This will give areas east of I-27 a
window for some light precipitation to develop along the dryline
Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Have keep POPs low as precip
development is spotty and very minimal. The dryline feature will
stick around through Monday afternoon before being pushed east by
drier air.

Monday, the upper level Pacific trough will continue to dig deeper
across the SOCAL/Arizona border, increasing SW flow aloft and
sending a shortwave across the CWA. This energy will tighten
gradients and increase southwesterly surface winds. This combined with
drier downslope warming will create elevated fire weather conditions
across the Caprock Monday.

Tuesday afternoon a backdoor cold front begins to move into the CWA.
As mentioned by the previous forecast, models are in much better
agreement on the timing of the front. Currently, it looks the front
will be through the entire CWA by early Wednesday morning creating a
rather cool day on Wednesday with highs in the upper 40s.

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue Friday into the weekend as a
broad trough establishes itself across the western USA.
Friday/Saturday a LLJ will help transport moisture across the CWA as
another dryline feature develops across the western portion of the
FA. This will increase the possibly of precipitaion across much of
the region. GFS continues to run slightly drier with a shorter
window for precip while the ECMWF remains more bullish with the
precip and keeps the window for rainfall open into Saturday morning.
For now have increased POPs on day 7 and 8 but have kept them
on the low side given how far out this feature is.




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