Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 291912
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...ANOTHER CHILLY JULY NIGHT IN
STORE TONIGHT WITH RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AS THE
STRATO CU DISSIPATES AND WINDSPEED DIMINISHES. THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE. WOULD EXPECT MORE FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE DAY. STAYED JUST UNDER MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
NORTH. SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE MAY WARM INTO THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE LONGER TERM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST. THE MAJORITY OF
RAINFALL WILL BE ENHANCED BY TOPOGRAPHY AND ALSO BY A FEW EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE TROUGH.

THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE MODEL RUNS IT APPEARS
THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND THE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH SHOULD TAKE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             57  85  62  86 /   0   0  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  81  61  85 /   0   0  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       55  82  59  85 /   0   0  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              52  79  52  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$


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