Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 252006
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
257 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NE INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LAYER HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER.
LIGHT WINDS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. A MILD WARM UP ON
FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...LONG TERM STARTS UNDER SLIGHT RIDGING BEFORE MOISTURE
IS DRAWN UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A INCOMING COLD FRONT.
LOOKS LIKE PRECIP SHOULD START IN THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHTNING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, BUT AT THIS TIME THINK THE
CHANCE IS LOW AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. MODELS REALLY START
TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT WITH WHAT TO DO WITH THE TAIL END OF THE
SYSTEM. THE GFS WANTS TO CUT OFF THE MOISTURE OVERNIGHT LATE SUNDAY,
WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN/AND LIKELY NAM WANT TO KEEP THE MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION AROUND THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
THE MAJORITY HERE AND KEPT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.

AFTER THAT NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE 40`S
AND LOWS IN THE 30`S TO UPPER 20`S. THEN LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP COMES JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             30  58  36  56 /   0   0  10  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  30  56  33  58 /   0   0   0  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       28  55  32  55 /   0   0   0  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              23  56  29  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON/ABM


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