Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 272025
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
325 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...PESKY FLURRIES AND CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN HANGING ON IN NE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING...AND NO POPS ARE NEEDED AFTER 00Z.
MEANWHILE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL WILL BE VEERING TO
A SE DIRECTION...AND THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SE BRINGING LOW CLOUDS INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY
PRECIP...BUT IT WILL HELP HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS. BOTH A LOW AND MIDLEVEL BROKEN CLOUD DECK WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...AND WILL LEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOWARD THE COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...COLD HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
KEEP FORECAST AREA DRY INITIALLY SATURDAY EVENING. INCREASING
MOISTURE IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THOUGH WILL INCREASE CLOUDS WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT BE CLOSE TO FREEZING IN
SOME MOUNTAIN VALLLEYS FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA NORTH TO THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF EXTREME NE TN AND SOUTHWEST VA. A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY FALL INITIALLY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WARM SUNDAY MORNING. THINKING ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS
POSSIBLE AND THAT WILL MELT BY LATE MORNING.

THEN MUCH WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY THEN THROUGH THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER MONDAY BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND THERE WILL BE ONLY A SHORT BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AHEAD OF
A STRONGER MORE SPRING LIKE SYSTEM.

THE SECOND SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY...THEN
INTO THE MS AND TN VALLEYS EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME
FLOODING IF THE MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL HAS NOT ALL MELTED BY THEN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TEMPERATURES AGAIN MUCH COOLER WITH
A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW THURSDAY FAR NORTHEAST AND HIGHER EASTERN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             27  45  34  50 /   0  10  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  22  41  33  50 /   0  10  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       22  42  34  50 /   0  10  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              18  39  30  50 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/TD


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