Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 291925
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
325 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...COLD FRONT STILL JUST WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A DRY AIRMASS OVER
THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS. 18Z DEW POINT TEMPS WERE RUNNING
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN LATEST MOS GUIDANCE...AND MODELS
GENERALLY DON`T BRING ANY SHOWERS EAST OF OUR PLATEAU COUNTIES UNTIL
AFTER 06Z MONDAY. OPTED TO KEEP HIGH END OF LIKELY TO LOW END OF
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT...BUT NOT SEEING ANY THREAT OF THUNDER.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE NO THREAT OF STRAY SNOW SHOWERS AS MIN
TEMPS STAY QUITE MILD TONIGHT...AND PROBABLY NO COOLER THAN MID TO
UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

RAIN CHANCES FALL VERY SHARPLY AFTER 12Z TO 15Z MONDAY IN THIS
PROGRESSIVE FLOW...SO I TRIMMED POPS BACK FASTER WITH NO MENTION
AFTER 16Z MONDAY. W TO NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COUPLED
WITH LOTS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...WHICH SUPPORT THE MUCH WARMER MOS
MAX TEMPS FOR MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS GRIDS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST FEATURES A WEAK LITTLE WAVE TRYING TO PRODUCE A COUPLE
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
PROBABILITY WAS KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THIS ILL
DEFINED LITTLE SYSTEM. A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS
WARMING ON AN INCREASINGLY ENERGETIC WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A LATE WORK WEEK COLD FRONT. KEPT SOME THUNDER GOING DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH SOME INSTABILITY NOTED IN THE MODELS. THE FRONT APPEARS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING PROBABILITY FOR SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A
MOST PLEASANT WARM UP IS STILL IN STORE FOR THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COOL
DOWN INTO THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             47  68  40  71 /  80  30  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  44  63  38  67 /  90  20   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       43  65  38  68 /  80  20   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              39  60  32  64 /  90  30   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG



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