Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 280706
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
306 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...Stacked low pressure system
slides slowly southeast today through tonight. Moisture will be
lifted in advance of an associated surface low and cold front
later today through the overnight hours bringing a chance for
showers to mainly northern parts of the forecast area. There should
be enough insolation today along with a southwesterly low level
flow to boost max temperatures to the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lows
will be in the lower and middle 50s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...We will continue to be
under the influence of a closed mid/upper low for Thursday and
Friday. Thursday will open with a frontal zone across our eastern
sections, with the upper jet positioned across SW VA and WV. Add in
steep lapse rates under the low, and likely pops appear warranted
in NE TN and SW VA for Thursday afternoon, along with a slight
chance of thunderstorms. Small hail cannot be ruled out either with
the freezing level quite low and MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. The
surface front and upper jet move east of the area on Friday as the
closed low drifts SE. Dynamic forcing will be lacking but
continued instability will produce scattered showers through the
day, mainly in northern and western sections. Temps will be cool
under the low, mainly in the 60s to lower 70s, and will lean toward
to the cool side of MOS guidance. The closed low begins to pull
away toward the northeast on Saturday, ending any precip chances.

The rest of the forecast will feature mostly clear conditions with a
warming trend, as highs will reach the 80s again for most spots on
Tuesday.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             83  56  72  52 /   0  10  20  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  82  56  69  49 /  10  20  40  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       81  55  69  51 /  10  30  40  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              78  52  67  51 /  10  20  60  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$





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