Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 011857
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
257 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
LESS CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE VALLEY TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
HAS ALLOWED US TO WARM UP TO THE MID TO UPPER 80`S EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS SHOULD HELP KEEP MORE OF THE
FOG AWAY OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS THE SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO
MOVE CLOSER TO US. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER THE AREA
IS PRETTY PATHETIC THIS AFTERNOON. AM EXPECTING THE VAST MAJORITY
OF PLACES TO REMAIN DRY, BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. TOMORROW LOOKS TO TELL A SIMILAR STORY WITH TEMPS
RISING INTO THE LOWER 90`S IN SOME PLACES IN THE VALLEY AS WE
CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THE GFS A BIT FASTER WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY...AND
IS PROBABLY A BIT FAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVERALL. MAY STILL BE CAPPED ENOUGH IN THE
VALLEY THURSDAY TO KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY...SO WILL JUST CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION CHANCES
A BIT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT CHANCES STILL ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE.  THIS WEAKNESS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST BY THE
LATTER PERIODS...BUT WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS FOR WEAK CONVECTION IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  91  71  90 /  10  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  89  69  88 /  10  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  90  70  88 /  10  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  88  65  86 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/LW



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