Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMRX 250714
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
314 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST LOOSENS ITS GRIP OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND ADVECT MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY. VORT MAX AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN WEST TN WILL TRACK
EAST...AND WITH AFTERNOON HEATING CREATING SOME
INSTABILITY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND TRACK N-NE. A DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP KEEP
NORTHERN SECTIONS MORE STABLE...AND WILL HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS...WARMEST
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE TRI-CITIES AREA. TONIGHT...THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT OTHER THAN
LINGERING BOUNDARIES...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH PW
VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM (TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE WET DAYS WILL REALLY BEGIN FOR MOST PEOPLE ON TUESDAY AS
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE PUMPS UP INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS
STATES THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE IN OUR AREA...BUT AT THIS
POINT THE BETTER MIXTURE OF CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS LOOK TO REMAIN
GENERALLY WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WILL NOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS RIPPLES OF
ENERGY ARE SENT AROUND THE RIDGE AND PASS NEAR OUR AREA. AND WE WILL
LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IF A
PARTICULAR AREA GETS REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. ANOTHER SLOW MOVING MOVING THROUGH WILL START
WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE UNITED STATES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST, WHICH HAS LEAD TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. BUT
AT THIS POINT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  67  83  67 /  60  50  70  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  66  82  64 /  50  50  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       83  67  82  66 /  50  40  70  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              86  64  83  63 /  20  20  50  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.