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000
FXUS66 KMTR 291121
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
421 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TODAY FOR PART OF OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT TUESDAY...PATCHWORK OF CLOUDS THIS
MORNING WITH A 1500 FOOT MARINE LAYER PLUS A NW FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 50S
-- SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY AND A FAR CRY FROM PAST WEEK.
DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST INTO
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE (MODIFIED TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 30). LOOK FOR GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY AFTER THE CLOUDS CLEAR THE MORNING. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK
OVERHEAD AND EFFECTIVELY BLOCKS MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE FAIRLY PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP THE COAST COOLER. LOOKS FOR 60S AND
70S NEAR THE WATER WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOKS OUT TO AUGUST 11TH INDICATE WARMER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS. RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:18 AM PDT TUESDAY...MORE OF THE SAME...HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD OBSCURING LOW CLOUDS ON THE SATELLITE. SIMILAR SET
UP TO YESTERDAY MORNING...BUT LESS CIGS ACTUALLY BEING REPORTED
AROUND THE REGION. SODARS INDICATE A WEAKER INVERSION AND ONSHORE
GRADIENT IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 24 HRS AGO. THEREFORE...FEELING A
LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY. HOWEVER...THERE
STILL IS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CIGS CAN BE SEEN STREAMING
IN THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE. WILL INCLUDE SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS FOR
KSFO AND KOAK. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY TERMINAL VFR THIS AM IS KSJC.
FORECASTING VFR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH HI-RES MODELS
SHOW A HOLE OVER KSFO AS FAR AS LOW CIGS ARE CONCERNED. CONF IS
LOW TO MEDIUM.

VICINITY OF KSFO...CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT INCLUDED A 4 HR
TEMPO FOR CIGS AOB 1K FEET THIS MORNING. IF CIGS IMPACT KSFO
CLEARING SHOULD BE 16-17Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO...PATCHY CIGS MAY IMPACT
APPROACH BUT HARD TO TELL GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUDS.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CIGS THROUGH 17-18Z. VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS RETURN TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:13 AM PDT TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF POINT REYES THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
GENTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

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