Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 031809
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1109 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:33 AM PDT THURSDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF OUR
DISTRICT...MAINLY CONFINED TO OVER SAN MATEO COUNTY AND AROUND THE
MONTEREY BAY AND IN THE SALINAS VALLEY. EVEN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN THOSE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING ON FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKS SOUTHWARD
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 60S
AND 70S MOST AREAS...WITH WARMEST AREAS ONLY REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING EASTWARD OVER CALIFORNIA FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE THUS EXPECTED WITH 5-10 DEGREES
OF WARMING BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:05 AM PDT THURSDAY... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS ALONG THE
SANTA CRUZ AND MONTEREY COASTLINES. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST UP TO 20KT WITH GUSTS LOCALLY UP TO 30KT.
FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS A RATHER MIXED OUR MARINE LAYER... AND
TONIGHTS SITUATION LOOKS A LITTLE MURKY. FORECAST LEANING TOWARDS
PERSISTENCE WITH SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS FOR TONIGHT. AS SUCH...
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WITH LATE ARRIVAL/EARLY MIXOUT FOR TOMORROW
MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS 1000 TO 2000 FT. CONFIDENCE FOR TONIGHT...
LOW TO MODERATE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WITH SUST UP TO
20KT AND GUSTS TO UPPER 20KT. MVFR CIGS POSBL BTWN 08-16Z FRI.
STRONG ONSHORE WINDS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WELL.

CONFIDENCE... MODERATE TO HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUST TO 20 KT. HINTS MARINE
LAYER WILL PUSH INTO SALINAS VALLEY BEFORE MONTEREY TONIGHT.
LOWERING MVFR CIGS VARY BY LOCATION... CHECK TAF.

CONFIDENCE... LOW TO MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:49 AM PDT THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE REGION.
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW BEFORE
DECREASING THIS WEEKEND. AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS COULD SEE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FROM STEEP FRESH SWELL. A LONG PERIOD
SOUTHERLY SWELL MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...MRY BAY FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 11 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP


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