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000
FXUS66 KMTR 100535
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1035 PM PDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
TOWARD THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND LEADING TO WARMER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
FOR INLAND SPOTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGHS TODAY WERE GENERALLY
A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN MOST PLACES COMPARED TO TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
MOVE LOCALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHES OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN.

A SLOW COOLING TREND WILL HOLD THROUGH LATE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A RETURN
TO WARMING THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS A 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE`S A GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE
ECMWF...GFS...GEM MODELS THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND EXTEND NW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK. MONSOON MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
ADVANCE NW INTO CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF SENDS THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT THE GFS SHOWS
IT REACHING FARTHER NW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:35 PM PDT WEDNESDAY... A LARGE COASTAL EDDY
REMAINS PRESENT ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING CENTERED
APPROXIMATELY 60 MILES OFF OF PT REYES. THIS EDDY IS RESULTING IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND STRATUS BANKING AGAINST THE
COASTLINE. STRATUS HAS PUSHED INTO SANTA CRUZ WRAPPING SOUTH ALONG
MONTEREY BAY INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
TYPICALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW INHIBITS STRATUS AT KSFO SO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR KSFO AND ITS APPROACH TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. THE BEST POSSIBILITY OF CIGS WOULD BE BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 1200 AND 1600Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH
FIRST GUESS FOR VFR AROUND 2000Z AT KMRY AND 1800Z AT KSNS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:29 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
GENTLE SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 11 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

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