Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 100559
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
959 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:26 PM PST TUESDAY...THE BIGGEST STORY IS
THE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES TODAY INCLUDING A SECOND DAY IN A
ROW WITH 85 IN SANTA CRUZ...IMPRESSIVELY WARM FOR FEBRUARY. IT WAS
85 IN MONTEREY WHICH WAS JUST 1 DEGREES SHY OF MATCHING THE
FEBRUARY ALL-TIME WARMEST 86 FEB 20, 1995. IT WAS OUR THIRD
CONSECUTIVE DAY IN A ROW WITH RECORD BREAKING HIGHS IN THE BAY
AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST. A TOTAL OF 7 NEW RECORDS WERE EITHER
MATCHED OR EXCEEDED TODAY (PLEASE SEE RERMTR OR SXUS76 FOR
DETAILS).

THIS EVENING`S OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM
EARLIER TODAY`S...A SIMILAR STORY IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING UNDER AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
NORTH FROM SOCAL THROUGH NEVADA AND IDAHO ALL THE WAY TO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. JUST A BRIEF LOOK OVER TOMORROW`S TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE RECORDS REACHED OVER THE AREA
THUS DECIDED TO EXTEND THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ONE MORE
DAY. A FEW RECORDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT EASIER TO REACH
ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE STILL PRIMARILY DEALING WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW.

IT LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS. WX MODELS AGREE A WEAKENING FRONTAL
SYSTEM REACHES NORTHERNMOST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AS FAR SOUTH AS
SONOMA COUNTY. SOME WET WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK THOUGH ESSENTIALLY SEEING LARGE MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES THUS
THERE IS A GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRESENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATES ARE ANTIPICATED TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:54 PM PST TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING 4 TO 8 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS MONTEREY
WHICH IS 1 DEGREE WARMER WITH A CURRENT RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURE OF 85...THE OLD RECORD SET BACK IN 2006 OF 80. THE
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS SLIDE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DISPLACING
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE EXCEPTION BEING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN FAR
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:25 PM PST TUESDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 10TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        77 IN 1988
SAN RAFAEL       77 IN 1988
NAPA             76 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    78 IN 1988
SFO AIRPORT      71 IN 1988
OAKLAND MUSEUM   76 IN 1988
OAKLAND AIRPORT  68 IN 2006
RICHMOND         73 IN 2006
LIVERMORE        79 IN 1918
MOUNTAIN VIEW    75 IN 1988
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1988
GILROY           77 IN 2006

MONTEREY         75 IN 2002
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1988
SALINAS          78 IN 2002
SALINAS AIRPORT  76 IN 2002
KING CITY        77 IN 2008

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:58 PM PST TUESDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. A MODERATE WEST SWELL
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A LARGER LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW
CLIMATE: CANEPA


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