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000
FXUS66 KMTR 151145
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
445 AM PDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW -- POSSIBLY
TO RECORD BREAKING LEVELS. SOME COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:05 AM PDT SATURDAY...UNLIKE YESTERDAY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING WITH A MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE THAT IS BEING OVERPOWERED BY THE NORTH TO
SOUTH FLOW. THE CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE HELPING TO
DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE BOARD. WOULD EXPECT SOME
UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH BAY BY DAYBREAK.

BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY ARE SHAPING UP TO BE NEARLY PERFECT WEATHER
DAYS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE PLUS
WARM TEMPS ALOFT ALONG WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. ONLY
QUESTION NOW IS JUST HOW WARM WILL IT GET. MODEL GUIDANCE EARLIER
IN THE WEEK HAD BEEN SUGGESTING 850 MB TEMPS EXCEEDING 17C (OR
NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THE MONTH) OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
WOULD EASILY LEAD TO RECORD HIGHS. ALL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF NOW
AND KEEP IT CLOSER TO 14-15C. THIS IS STILL QUITE WARM FOR THE
YEAR, BUT SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE HIGHS BY 3 TO 6 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT JUST OFF THE COAST 1000 MB TEMPS
ARE DEPICTED UP TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. WILL BE
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON A PLACE LIKE BIG SUR WHICH CAN REACH VERY
WARM LEVELS DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE RECEIVE REPORTS OF 80S ALONG PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN MONTEREY COASTLINE. FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, LOOK FOR
GENERALLY MID 60S TO MID 70S NEAR THE WATER WITH 70S AND 80S
INLAND. 90S ARE QUITE POSSIBLE AT THE HOTTEST SPOTS ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE PINNACLES.

TEMPS WILL COOL AGAIN NEXT WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE IS REPLACED BY A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND 850 MB READINGS DROP BACK TO THE
8-10C RANGE. IN GENERAL, HIGHS WILL DROP AROUND 10 DEGREES BY
MONDAY COMPARED TO THE VALUES WE WILL SEE THIS WEEKEND. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE LOCALLY BREEZY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT RACES
ACROSS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK AS A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT STAY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALSO
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK. BY DAY 10 GFS AND ECMWF BRING
A LONGWAVE TROF NEAR THE COAST -- ALTHOUGH STILL OUT TO OUR WEST.
IF THOSE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT, IT WOULD BE AROUND THE 26TH
THAT WE WOULD FINALLY HAVE A SHOT AT GETTING RAIN.

CPC DOES BRING ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL TO OUR AREA GOING INTO THE
FINAL FULL WEEK OF MARCH, HOWEVER THAT NEEDS TO BE VIEWED WITH
SOME CAUTION. LATEST GEFS 16 DAY OUTLOOK SHOWS LESS THAN A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF 0.10" AT SFO DURING ANY 24 OUR PERIOD, AND THE
GFS OPERATIONAL OUT TO 16 DAYS INDICATES MOSTLY UNDER 1/2" FOR OUR
CWA (WITH POSSIBLY A BIT MORE FOR THE NORTH BAY). A TYPICAL 7 DAY
PERIOD IN SF AT THE END OF MARCH WOULD PRODUCE AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN, SO EVEN THE AMOUNTS BEING FORECAST ARE LESS THAN WHAT WE
WOULD USUALLY RECEIVE.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:44 AM PDT SATURDAY...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL TURN ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 KT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN TO 10 TO 15 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR TO IFR CIGS BETWEEN 200-600
FEET WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AND OUT OVER AREA TERMINALS TILL
16Z THIS MORNING THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP TILL THEN.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 16Z. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TURN
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 15-16
ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION................ SAT 15      SUN 16
 KENTFIELD............... 85/2004     86/2004
 SAN RAFAEL.............. 83/1972     87/1972
 NAPA.................... 86/2004     88/2004
 SAN FRANCISCO........... 82/2004     85/1914
 SFO AIRPORT............. 81/2004     82/2004
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)...... 85/2004     85/2004
 OAKLAND AIRPORT......... 83/2004     83/2004
 RICHMOND................ 85/2004     84/1972
 LIVERMORE............... 83/1972     88/1972
 MOFFETT FIELD........... 83/2004     84/2004
 SAN JOSE................ 84/2004     85/2004
 GILROY.................. 84/1994     85/2004

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION................ SAT 15      SUN 16
 MONTEREY................ 81/2004     84/1978
 SANTA CRUZ.............. 83/1926     86/1914
 SALINAS................. 85/1972     87/2004
 SALINAS AIRPORT......... 83/1972     87/2004
 KING CITY............... 90/2007     91/2007

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 AM SATURDAY...A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL OF
12 TO 14 FT WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD BETWEEN 16 TO 18 SECONDS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE COAST FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH 8AM MONDAY MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE FOR WEST
FACING BEACHES WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AND SNEAKER
WAVES. LOCAL BREAKERS AROUND 18 FEET ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 7 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 7 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 5 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: BELL
CLIMATE: SA/MM

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