Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 062055
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
155 PM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INLAND
TODAY. BANDS OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER
CHANCES OVER OUR DISTRICT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...PRIMARILY MORE INLAND
AREAS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:00 PM PDT FRIDAY...MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH OUR CWA. WORTH NOTING THAT THE RUNS OF THE HRRR
EARLIER THIS MORNING SO FAR HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB WITH BRINGING
THE MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA FROM STO`S. AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
LIGHT SO FAR WITH MANY PLACES UNDER 1/4". RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. COULD
ALSO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT, ONE CELL FIRED UP OVER FAR
SOUTHERN SAN BENTIO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AS ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE LOW. MODELS SHOW SIMILAR VALUES AND
FAIRLY CLOSE TIMING FOR TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF UP TO 1/4" FOR MOST URBAN SPOTS. INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK AS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO TODAY, HOWEVER AN
ISOLATED CELL OR TWO FOR PARTS WELL INLAND CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO
THE FOUR CORNER`S REGION. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
REBUILD TO THE WEST COAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO
PUSH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL TO ABOVE LEVELS. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK MOST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO THE MID 80S.

NO REAL SIGNS OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:55 AM PDT FRIDAY...FOR 18Z TAFS. UPPER LOW IN
VICINITY BRINGING GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. WRAP
AROUND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS. SKIES WILL BE
CHAOTIC WITH FRACTURED DECKS AT VARYING FLIGHT LEVELS FROM 800 FT
TO 11000 FT. THUS VFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE... WITH MOSTLY
VFR/MVFR CIGS TO BE EXPECTED. OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS.

VICINITY OF KSFO... INTERMITTENT MVFR/VFR OSCILLATING CIGS THRU
THE DAY WITH VCSH/-SHRA FROM WRAP AROUND SHOWERS. ONSHORE WINDS UP
TO 15KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...INTERMITTENT MVFR/VFR OSCILLATING CIGS
THRU DAY WITH VCSH/-SHRA FROM WRAP AROUND SHOWERS. ONSHORE WINDS
UP TO 12 KT DURING AFTERNOON. WINDS NEAR KSNS GUSTING TO AROUND
20 KT AFTER 14Z SAT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:47 AM PDT FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM
WILL SHIFT FARTHER INLAND TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE SPLIT... WITH
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST AND THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/BLIER
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


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