Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 290020
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
520 PM PDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A dry and warm Memorial Day weekend is forecast for
the Bay Area. The trend will continue well into next week with no
significant cooling expected until late in the week at the
earliest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 1:55 PM PDT Saturday...Warming continues over
the area with mid 60s at the coast and lots of 70s and 80s inland.
Surface pressure gradients are still mostly offshore or northerly
with 5.4 mb between ACV and SFO, 4.0 from SFO to LAS, and 2.6
from WMC to SFO. A weak onshore component can be seen with 0.7 mb
from SFO to SAC. Satellite imagery shows that the coastal stratus
has now worked its way up the coast and is now off of Point Sur,
with a finger of stratus curving into the Monterey Bay. A few
cumulus buildups can also be seen over the Santa Lucias as well
as over the mountains in southern San Benito county.

The 18Z NAM12 still indicates that the coastal stratus will
persist it progression up the west coast. However, the current
strength of the northerly surface flow at least across northern
California will eventually push the low clouds into the salinas
valley, after they have rounded the corner into the Monterey Bay.
The surface flow is forecast to become stronger onshore tomorrow
with current temperatures becoming cooler, especially near the
coast, where upper 50s to mid 60s are expected. Well-inland areas
will still be warm with 80s and 90s on tap.

High pressure aloft will quickly rebuild on Memorial Day with
temperatures rebounding with warm highs expected through the rest
of the week. Widespread 80s to lower/mid 90s can be expected
across inland areas into the first days of June.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 5:15 PM PDT Saturday...Strong northerly gradient
is keeping stratus from the Mry Bay Area south. This is expected
to weaken tonight allowing stratus into the SFO Bay Area late
tonight well after the airport evening rush.

Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR cigs after 10Z possibly later.
West winds to 18 kt through 04z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus has pulled back from the bay so
it will remain vfr for a while longer. Cigs expected to fill in
after sunset with mvfr cigs by 05z.

&&

.MARINE...as of 10:43 AM PDT Saturday...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP FRESH SWELL AND CHOPPY SEA
CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EASE BEGINNINGEARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH IMPROVING SEA SURFACE CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE...A BUILDING
SOUTHERLY SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...SF Bay until 8 PM
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: Sims
AVIATION: W Pi
MARINE: Larry


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