Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 251135
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
535 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Milder weather is the main forecast highlight through Tuesday.

In the wake Saturday`s shortwave that brought mixed wintry
precipitation to our area, clear skies and light westerly winds were
seen across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa early this morning.
Precipitation amounts from Saturday were on the lower side of what
was expected, and thus should not hinder warming potential too
much as we head through the next few days. However there is still
enough snowcover in northeast Nebraska to limit warming there for
today.

A weak shortwave is forecast to slide overhead today, but only a
modest increase in mid and high level clouds should result. But it
will keep somewhat cool airmass in place through the afternoon as
850 temps hover in the -2C to -4C range. Still expect plenty of
insolation to help in melting ice and snow across our area.

Building of mid level heights will commence tonight behind exiting
shortwave and ahead of deepening trough in the West. Meanwhile
strong shortwave tracking across the Southern Canadian Plains on
Monday will induce increasingly stronger southerly flow across
the U.S. Plains states. Given this warmer synoptic setup, expect
temperatures to flip to the warmer side of normal for Monday into
Tuesday. 850 temps gain more than 5C from this afternoon to Monday
afternoon, and linger over our area into Tuesday.

Then Tuesday afternoon, a cold front trailing Canadian system
will be drifting into Nebraska and Iowa, but parallel mid level
flow should limit southward plunge. Will likely see a wide range
of afternoon temperatures Tuesday with 30s behind and 50s ahead of
the cold front. Also, modest low level moisture increase ahead of
cold front Monday night and Tuesday morning could lead to low
clouds and patchy drizzle which could limit warming potential.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Precipitation chances and cooler temperatures return to the forecast
at mid week, with a slight warming trend to follow.

Progressive upper low is forecast to swing through southern
California on Tuesday then eject into the central CONUS as an open
wave Wednesday and Wednesday night. In the mean time, cold front
over our area on Tuesday will drift south by Wednesday, setting
the stage for mixed precipitation in eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa as upper wave rides overhead. A weak impulse ahead
of main wave may trigger areas of rain or drizzle in southeast
Nebraska Tuesday night. But main brunt of precipitation comes
Wednesday and Wednesday night when forcing induced by main
shortwave kicks in. Temperature profiles will be tricky to nail
down this far out, but most longer range model output suggests 850
0C line will drop into northeast Nebraska Wednesday afternoon
with rain or snow there. Colder air sweeps through the rest of our
area Wednesday night when all precipitation should eventually
switch over to snow. Accumulating snows are certainly possible for
much of our CWA, but with progressive nature of system, amounts
should remain fairly light.

Rising mid level heights and 850 temps will follow Wednesday system,
allowing temperatures to rebound back to above-normal Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 534 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

VFR conditions and winds less than 12 knots through the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dergan
LONG TERM...Dergan
AVIATION...DeWald



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