Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 131130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
530 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THIS PERIOD.

MAIN FEATURES NOTED FROM THE UPPER AIR CHARTS LAST EVENING
INCLUDED THE FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JET STREAK OF AROUND 145
KNOTS WAS PUNCHING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. WINDS OF
ABOUT 100 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WERE OVER OREGON...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF CONCERN. AT 500 MB...12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 100 METERS WERE OVER SOUTHWEST BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WHILE A RIDGE STRETCHED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION UP
INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT WAS NOTED
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AT 700 MB AND 850 MB. COLDEST
VALUES AT 850 MB WERE AROUND -39 C ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF JAMES BAY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWED A RIDGE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA DOWN INTO OUR AREA.
WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTHEAST OR EAST...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. PRESSURE FALLS WERE HIGHEST OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. RADAR ECHOES HAD BEEN INCREASING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

TODAY...EXPECT THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW SEEMS HIGHEST THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...WHERE UP TO AROUND HALF AN INCH OF
SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE. DRIER AIR OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
LIMIT PCPN THERE. A BAND OF SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON AN AXIS FROM AROUND
YANKTON TO DENISON BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW BEING THERE TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES SPREAD
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. OUR AREA WILL BE
IN THE FRINGES OF THE BEST DYNAMICS FOR SNOW. 00Z NAM WAS PROBABLY
A LITTLE TOO BULLISH WITH ITS SNOW AMOUNTS IN OUR AREA TONIGHT...
BUT WILL GO WITH UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN SOME OF
OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT.
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOULD LINGER SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WESTERN
IOWA...BUT THAT QUICKLY MOVES EAST. EXPECT A DECENT TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN TO THE WEST.

CURRENTLY HAVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

00Z RUNS OF ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING PCPN IN
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE LIKELY RAIN OR A MIX...BASED ON
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AND LIGHT SNOW.

PCPN CHANCES SEEMED TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...
BUT MAY NEED TO ADJUST THAT LATER. A FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED.

MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY
SHOULD BUILD EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY...WHILE A TROUGH
DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THAT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO THE
40S AND 50S...WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MID CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. SOME RADAR RETURNS
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING BUT FLURRIES AT BEST
WOULD BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z. CEILINGS SHOULD
LOWER ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT STILL
REMAIN IN THE VFR TO MVFR RANGE. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE
INTRODUCED AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AT KOFK AND KOMA WITH LESSER CHANCES
AT KLNK. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LEAVE THAT OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN


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