Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 021110
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
510 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALING AN ELONGATED UPPER TROF OVER THE
WRN CONUS WITH A CUT OFF LOW SITUATED JUST OFF THE CA COASTLINE AND
NRN SEGMENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE PAC NW. MEANWHILE...BROAD
SFC HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL PUSH INTO THE OH VLY
AND INDUCE MOIST BACKSIDE FLOW INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATER TODAY.

NEEDLESS TO SAY A RATHER COMPLICATED FCST IS ON HAND TRYING TO
DETERMINE WHEN/WHERE COLD AIRMASS...ASSOCIATED WITH PAC NW
SHORTWAVE...SWEEPING SEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR PCPN
CHANGE FROM LIQUID/FREEZING/FROZEN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

BASED UPON COMBINATION OF COBB OUTPUT...VERTICAL TEMP/MOISTURE
STRUCTURE PER BOTH NAM AND GFS....INITIAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
BE SUPPORTIVE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TYPE EVENT THIS EVENING
BEFORE COLUMN SATURATION AND DEEPENING CAA COMES INTO PLAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GIVEN SPEEDY NATURE OF CAA...SUSPECT TRANSITION  WILL
BE SWIFT ONCE IT REACHES THE CWA. THAT ALONG WITH BRIEF TIME FRAME OF
PCPN ACTIVITY...BELIEVE THE NRN CWA WILL SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO AN INCH OR SO NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT PLATTE CO TO MONONA CO
BY EARLY TUES AFTN. AS FOR HEADLINES...PREFER TO ALLOW DAY SHIFT
TO FINE TUNE THE AREAS THAT WILL BE AT RISK FOR WINTRY MIX.

IN ADDITION...SREF SOLUTION IS DEPICTING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THUS
MAKING IT QUITE LIKELY FOR A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
OVER THE NRN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MEX/ECMMOS REMAIN CONSISTENT ADVERTISING A GENEROUS TEMP REBOUND
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE
MOST PART FRIDAY THRU MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THICKENING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE 12
KNOTS BY 17-18Z...WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 20S. MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP TONIGHT BY 03-05Z. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE 03/06-12Z...BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SURFACE TEMPS WHICH
MAY BE JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE OR BELOW ZERO. ADDED A PROB30 FOR THAT
LAST 6 HOUR PERIOD FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER REFINE
FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD



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