Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 242202
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
602 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather into mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
No changes were needed for the evening update as stacked high
pressure continues to support unseasonable warmth and precip
suppression.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The ridge remains in place on Monday, although heights over our area
tick back as the upper high center shifts east and fills every so
slightly. This plus the continued presence of high cloud cover may
shave a degree or two off of the afternoon highs.

The ridge will begin a eastward motion on Tuesday, as a midlevel
shortwave tracks across the Dakotas and finally gives the pattern a
little push.  Although the cirrus will move off, increasing low
level moisture will promote some cumulus development.  This, along
with a small decrease in 850 mb temperatures, leads to a further
drop in afternoon high temperatures, although they will still be
more than 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A pattern change is still the main headline for the extended
forecast. A frontal boundary is slated to cross Wednesday or
Wednesday night, ahead of the midwest shortwave ejecting across
the far northern Great Lakes. Weak forcing and the very dry
airmass in place lead me to continue with a dry forecast for the
passage at this time.

Upper flow over the northeast U.S. transitions to a zonal pattern
initially on Thursday and then a trough for Friday and Saturday.
This will knock temperatures back to near or just below normal
levels. Isolated shower possibilities also arrive with the pattern,
but will do little to dent the continuing overall dry spell.
Temperatures may recover Sunday as the trough starts to exit.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will maintain light wind and VFR through Monday.

.Outlook...
Restrictions are possible with a Wed night cold front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record temperatures for today:

PIT: 90 (1881)
ZZV: 95 (1908)
MGW: 92 (1930, 1908)
DUJ: 85 (1970)
HLG: 91 (1934)
PHD: 91 (1970)

DUJ has already surpassed its record high. PHD, and possibly
PIT, are most likely to be met or broken.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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