Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271444
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1044 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. A SHOWER OR STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING SHOWS A SLIGHT CAP IN
THE MID LEVELS THAT IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO ERODE OVER THE COURSE
OF THE DAY. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKELY AND WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED STORMS
BUT BASED ON LATEST SOUNDINGS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY COLLAPSING STORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THERMODYNAMICS
DECREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL PUSH FINALLY ARRIVES. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/
STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...BUT THESE WILL
END QUICKLY. COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM STILL LOOKING WARM...HUMID AND ACTIVE. AT THIS POINT...
MODEL DISCREPANCIES MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A TIME PERIOD OR
LOCATION FOR THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION. BUT AT THIS
POINT...WOULD THINK SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXP THRU TNGT...EXCEPT FOR PORTS N OF I 80 WHERE MVFR TO
OCNL IFR CIGS ARE EXPD THIS MRNG AS A CDFNT CROSSES. THE FNT WL
MOVE S THRU THE AFTN WITH SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS DVLPG ESP FM PIT S.
INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS WITH AMT OF TSTM COVG IN QN.
CLOUDS/PCPN SHOULD DCR BY EVE AFT FROPA.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ADVNG GT LKS LOW PRES WL BRING PSBL SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS SUN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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