Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 292229
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
629 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern will continue through the week
as a series of cold fronts affect the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Another update was issued to account for persistent showers
moving over western zones as per encroachment of a weak shortwave
and prefrontal trough. As the upper trough and associated sfc
front progress eastward tonight, more of this convective may
develop, so have eliminate the evening break and have maintained
at least isolated pops through the night for those areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Water vapor imagery shows the next elongated shortwave trough
extending from srn Michigan back through central Illinois, and
should arrive across the western CWA toward daybreak. Lift
associated with this feature appears to be a bit more pronounced
that its predecessor coming through this afternoon, and expect
an uptick in radar coverage tomorrow (particularly over the
eastern CWA), as it begins to lift out with a slight negative
tilt enhancing ascent over the area. With deep layer moisture
absent, expect that QPF will be rather light, with only the
eastern mountains having the potential to exceed 1/4 inch.
Nonetheless, expect at least scattered if not numerous showers
over the area tomorrow morning into the afternoon.

Once again, partial clearing is expected late day into Tuesday
night before a third vorticity lobe pivots across the area on
Wednesday with another bout of scattered, mainly light, showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
With the longwave axis of this closed upper low shifting east of
the area by Wednesday night, this should portend a cool and dry
stretch for Thursday and Friday before a secondary upper low
digs southward through eastern Canada. A much more vigorous,
almost winter-like, cold front will sweep southward across the
area late Friday into Saturday morning bringing the likelihood
for heavier rainfall (thunderstorms) and below normal temperatures
for the balance of the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period although an
approaching upper trough should trigger some scattered showers
after midnight and through Tuesday. Kept VCSH mention in FKL/DUJ
TAFs overnight, while delaying shower mention elsewhere until
Tuesday afternoon.

.Outlook...
Restrictions are possible Wed under the upper trough, and again
Fri with another front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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