Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 190809
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
409 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. BROAD SURFACE
HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
SOMEWHAT INTERESTING SCENARIO SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW AT
850 BACKS TOWARD THE SOUTH AND INCREASES. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST NAM IS
SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THEN DRIVING
NORTHWARD IN THE STRENGTHENING FLOW AT 850. WOULD EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT
ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SO WILL LEAVE POP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GETTING A PUSH FROM A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE POOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS MAY BE OVERPLAYING THEIR HANDS A BIT ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH
CURRENT DATA...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONGER CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WITH BLDG HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BE BLEMISHED ONLY BY SOME
PERIDAWN FOG. SFC WIND WL RMN LGT...BUT IS PROJECTED TO BECOME
E OR SE FRIDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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