Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 051845
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POPS TO BRING SNOW OUT JUST A BIT
QUICKER GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER...DID INCREASE SNOW
TOTALS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...AS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THIS AREA IS ON THE
BACK EDGE OF AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND H850-700 FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SUPPORTING THE HIGHER RATES. STILL FORESEE THAT THE SNOW
WILL MOSTLY WRAP UP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEITHER SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN
THE 30S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX IN WITH SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP BY MIDWEEK...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED WERE BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF EC AND
GEFS GUIDANCE,

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MUCH DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH AND UNDERCUTTING THE
HIGHER CLOUD COVER. IN RESPONSE...THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS
BROKEN AND IS BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT. THIS IS OCCURRING WHILE
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PULL AWAY AS THE LARGE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO
THE EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A QUICK CLEARING OF SKIES THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH LIGHT SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.


&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1926.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...8 SET IN 1960.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON THURSDAY MARCH 5...2 SET IN 1978.

PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...2 SET IN 1901.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...12 SET IN
1960...1969...AND 1972.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MARCH 6...5 SET IN 1960.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ076.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$






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