Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 260425
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1225 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures with chances for mainly afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms are expected through the holiday
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Dry weather is expected overnight ahead of an approaching weak
shortwave. The wave is expected to bring scattered showers to the
region today, with scattered thunderstorms also expected this
afternoon as instability increases with daytime heating. Adjusted
forecast based on the latest near term models and observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Minor changes were made to the forecast as models are in agreement
of the over all pattern. Moisture and instability is expected
continue to increase in southwest flow through Saturday on the
western periphery of an eastern CONUS ridge. With a lack of
significant shortwave support, expect mainly diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms. The warming trend will continue, with
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels expected using
the latest model blend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ensemble models continue to indicate the east coast ridge persisting
through the period. A relatively moist and unstable airmass in place
should result in daily, mainly diurnally driven shower and
thunderstorm chances through the period. Temperatures are expected
to average 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels. Used edited
Superblend guidance for the long term period to account for
uncertainty and to smooth out day to day operational model
differences.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue into Friday, and look to
be marred by only scattered convection supported by a weak disturbance
today, and another on Friday. The ongoing "vicinity shower/thunderstorm"
mention will thus be maintained, but with tweaks using the latest
high resolution model runs with GFS and NAM consensus/persistence.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restriction chances in afternoon/evening convection will continue
through the holiay weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

07/15



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