Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181834
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
134 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLDS WL CONT TDA WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO A
TEMP INVERSION. FLURRIES OR LGT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPD ALSO...BUT WITH
THE SHALLOW MSTR LYR NO SGFNT ACCUMS ARE EXPD. TEMPS SHOULD AVG A
FEW DEG BLO THE SEASONAL AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ADVN ACRS THE RGN TNGT. WITH THE CONTD
LLVL MSTR AND TEMP INVERSION JUST SCT FLURRIES ARE EXPD...THOUGH A
FEW LGT ACCUMULATING SNW SHWRS ARE PSBL WITH SOME LTD LK AND
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES. BLDG HIGH PRES
SHOULD END ANY RMNG SNW SHWRS AND FLURRIES FRI MRNG...THOUGH
INVERSION TRAPPED LLVL MSTR SHOULD KEEP CLDS ACRS THE RGN.

A SHRTWV ACRS THE SERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO BRING LOW CHCS FOR LGT
SNW WELL SE OF PIT LT SAT...THOUGH MDLS CONT TO TREND FURTHER S
WITH PCPN FM THIS SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD AVG A LTL BLO THE SEASONAL
AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THE DETAILS OF HOW
THIS EXACTLY UNFOLDS WILL BE CRITICAL. BY MONDAY SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF MAIN NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
MOVING OFF SHORE OF THE EAST COAST. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES MAY BE
BRUSHED BY LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. NEXT UP IS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER
OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD FRONT AND COLD
ADVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT AND FAST DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE TIMING OF COLD AIR AND EXACT TRACK WILL LIKELY CHANGE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS. ALL IN ALL PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
LITTLE CHANGED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON NEWEST WPC
EXTENDED PROGS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS INTO EARLY EVENING WITH AREAS OF IFR FOG AND LIGHT SNOW
AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT LOOKS TO BE
BORDERLINE. LIGHT SNOW ENDS BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH CONTINUED MVFR
CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.