Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 130915
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
415 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ARRIVE
THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF
THE COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON MONDAY.
THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND IT SHOULD PASS ACROSS MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA
AROUND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING UP INTO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE BITTER COLD WILL GET COLDER TODAY, BUT WITH STRONG/GUSTY
WINDS ON TOP OF IT. AN ARCTIC FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH AND WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BY MID
MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AND
WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT, AND WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA
THAT WAS NOT IN IT BEFORE. WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST 35-45 MPH,
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. THE STRONG WINDS, COMBINED
WITH THE COLD WILL MAKE FOR LOWERING WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE WIND CHILL WARNING UP NORTH REMAINS IN PLACE. THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW.

ALSO TODAY, THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES, AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA AT TIMES TODAY, WHILE
THERE REMAINS SOME LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE SINCE THIS IS
WHERE THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE COMBINATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. AS WITH YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT, ANY SNOW
SHOWERS THAT OCCUR COULD PRODUCE A QUICK DUSTING.

MOST SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY APPROACHED THE
AREA THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN AREA OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS APPROACHING THE POCONOS EARLY THIS MORNING. IF
THIS HOLDS TOGETHER AND AFFECTS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK DUSTING OF A HALF INCH TO INCH ACROSS THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING BY THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE LESSEN. THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL WEAKEN
SOME, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE
COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE
THE WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS. HOWEVER, THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. SO THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO COVER ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY,
THEN OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS. HOWEVER, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BRING DECREASING
WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. THE
SNOW IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE,
MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND SHOULD CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO RISE. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST AND INLAND AS FAR AS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING
THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT, GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BECOME LOCATED OVER
OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO OUR
REGION. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO CHANGE TO RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE REMAINDER OF OUR COUNTIES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY BUT NOT BEFORE THE SNOW ACCUMULATES TO ABOUT 2
TO 4 INCHES. THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION THROUGH FREEZING RAIN IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE ON MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 1.25 TO 2.00 INCHES MAY BE COMMON FROM THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD. TOTALS MAY RANGE FROM 0.75
TO 1.50 INCHES ON THE COASTAL PLAIN BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE. WE CONTINUE TO BE A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE.

THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE ON
TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE,
ESPECIALLY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO
THIS WOULD BE IF ANY SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRED DURING THE DAY. WE`VE
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT, HOWEVER, AFTER THAT WE WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY IF ANY SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS OCCUR TODAY, WITH GUSTS 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE DAY AND TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
VFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS EXPECTED, BUT THE STRONG GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR WITH SNOW. THE SNOW
SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, EXCEPT IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS AROUND KRDG AND KABE.

MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX AROUND KRDG AND
KABE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY...IFR WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE AS WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TODAY. GUSTS OF 40-45 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS WELL THROUGH TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO FREEZING SPRAY, HEAVY AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS. THEREFORE THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY AND
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS, MAINLY FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE HSA. THERE`S STILL A
LOT THAT NEEDS TO UNFOLD, BUT THE 5-DAY WPC QPF OF 1.25 TO 2.25
INCHES OF LIQUID COMBINED WITH ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF SWE ON
THE GROUND WOULD VERY LIKELY CAUSE NUISANCE LOW-LYING FLOODING AND
POSSIBLY SOME MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING (RIVERS ASSOCIATED
WITH OUR FORECAST POINTS). THIS ASSUMES MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE
PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN.

THE UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE. THE PRECIPITATION IS HEAVIEST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TRACK WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPS AND NOT
ONLY AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS, BUT ALSO AFFECT WHAT
REMAINING SWE MELTS. THERE`S ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.50 SCATTERED ACROSS
THE AREA. I CAN SAY WE ARE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN ON THE 3RD AND
4TH WHEN THERE WAS IN EXCESS OF 2.00 OF SWE ALONG THE I-78
CORRIDOR. AS AN FYI, ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WE DIDN`T SEE THE
FLOODING, THAT MODELS SUGGESTED, ON THE 3RD AND 4TH WAS BECAUSE
ALL THE SWE DID NOT RAPIDLY COME OUT OF THE SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT CAN
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK.

WHILE THE LACK OF SWE IS LOOKING BETTER ACROSS THE HSA, NOT ALL
THE RIVERS HAVE RECEDED BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE PRIOR TO THE 3RD.
SO RIVERS WILL START HIGHER AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SURELY
GET THE GROUND HARD FOR A VERY EFFICIENT RUNOFF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, DESPITE THE MOS GUIDANCE...AND BY FAR THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY:
KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN. THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR   RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH  RER LOW MAX
---------------------------   --------------------  -----------

ABE              8            -1 IN 1979            14-1979

ACY             10            -6 IN 1979            13-1979

PHL             12            +2 IN 1979            14-1979

ILG             12            -4 IN 1979            13-1979

RDG             10            -4 IN 1983

TTN              9             0 IN 1916

GED             13            -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1           -12 IN 1970

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     454-455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...DRAG


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