Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 102114
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
214 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...INCREASED HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL WORK AGAINST WIDESPREAD FOG AT NIGHT...RATHER MORE
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. THE PRONOUNCED
INVERSION CONDITIONS UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN T0+
MODIFY AND LESSEN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OBSERVED THE LAST TWO
DAYS ON THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES. SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR
ON THURSDAY...BUT SO FAR THERE HAS NOT BEEN SIGNIFICANT MELTING TO
CONTRIBUTE TO ANY FLOOD CONDITIONS. THE DISTURBANCE FOR SATURDAY
IS STILL ON TRACK...PERHAPS CLOSER TO SATURDAY MORNING THEN
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. PRELIMINARY SNOW ESTIMATES SUGGEST 1 OR 2
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A SKIFF IN THE SNAKE PLAIN. RS


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS MARKED BY MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
SEMBLANCE OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SPILLING INTO THE PACNW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGHLAND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE INTERSTATE CORRIDOR. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR HIGHLAND AREAS SUN
INTO MON. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE SUN-MON TIMEFRAME AS WELL
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN
AND MID-UPPER SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS...
PERHAPS CREATING SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES AT PASS LEVEL. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION IN THE TUE-WED
TIME FRAME...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS
IN VALLEYS IN THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME AS VALLEY INVERSIONS ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP BENEATH THE PRESENCE OF THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO ARRIVE BY LATE WEEK
AS A BROAD EAST PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS QUITE GOOD THROUGH THE PERIOD LENDING ABOVE-AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. AD/SURVICK
&&

.AVIATION...TAF FORECAST IS ONE OF PERSISTENCE...AS VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS MEANS A LIKELY RETURN TO IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS AT PIH AND
IDA AFTER THE 01-03Z TIMEFRAME THROUGH THE 12-15Z TIMEFRAME. ONE
CHANGE TONIGHT IS THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT THE AERIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT OF
ANY VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT
SUN AND BYI THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL BR
OVERNIGHT AT BYI. AD/SURVICK
&&

.AIR STAGNATION...INCREASED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND A GRADUAL
FLATTENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL HELP DECREASE THE
STRENGTH OF THE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR MIXING THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL COME WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
FRONTAL BAND ON SATURDAY. RS &&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


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