Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 271022
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
322 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. SHOULD HAVE
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY WITH THE ONLY THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE THREAT FOR MAINLY
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS IT SPREADS INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. SNOW LEVELS
START OUT ABOVE 6500 FEET TODAY AND DROP TO AROUND 5500 FEET BY
SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING TO VALLEY FLOORS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH IDAHO. SOME OF THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7 THOUSAND FEET SHOULD GET THE HEAVIEST
SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM THE NEXT THREE DAYS BUT THERE ARE A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTIES IN DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS. IT APPEARS THE MOST
DIFFICULT DRIVING PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.
GK

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND PREVIOUS 12Z
ECMWF WERE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF
RESUMED THE POOR MODEL TO MODEL CONTINUITY OBSERVED LAST NIGHT. THUS
HAVE TOSSED THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW AND NUDGED THE FORECAST
TOWARD THE GFS WHICH WAS SHOWING THE NEXT PAC LOW ADVANCING TOWARD
THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. A MODEST INFLUX OF
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS THE LOW ADVANCES
CLOSER TO THE COAST. ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY THE LOW FINALLY
SWINGS INLAND WITH A GOOD SHOT OF ATTENDING PRECIPITATION SPREADING
THROUGHOUT SE IDAHO WHICH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS A MOIST PACIFIC FLOW STREAMS INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING TOWARD THE NW COAST. HUSTON
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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