Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 282013
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
213 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...Broad ridge remains in place across Great Basin
today with weakly northwest flow aloft over SE Idaho. Weak
shortwave moving through Idaho panhandle this afternoon per water
vapor satellite imagery but little moisture to work with today so
expect only a few clouds generating in response and no
precipitation. Further south, monsoonal moisture slowly working
north through the Great Basin around the high but convection so
far limited to southern portions of Great Basin. Models continue
to slowly pull moisture north toward SE Idaho but northwest flow
limits extent to just south of border on Friday. Saturday a
different tune however as layer PW values increase sharply through
the day as flow turns southwest ahead of trough moving into PacNW.
Have nudged precip chances up slightly portions of the region and
left chances overnight higher elevations as convection looks to
linger Saturday night. Upper trough axis flattens and lifts east
during the day Sunday which ushers drier air mass into region and
shifts main monsoonal push southeast. Next Pacific trough reaches
coast Monday with center along Washington coast, much further
south than weekend trough. Should be another surge north of
moisture into the region, along with stronger frontal signature
Monday night. Tuesday appears to have potential for windiest day
along with clearest decrease in afternoon highs following front,
albeit keeping temperatures still at or slightly above normal.
Wednesday and Thursday look to be dry with slow transition behind
trough leading into another similar progressive trough for next
weekend. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...Expect VFR conditions today and tomorrow with slightly
breezy winds each afternoon. Wyatt


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Broad high pressure is in place across the Western
United States with weak West NorthWest flow over our area. Expect a
very weak wave in this flow today bringing slightly breezy winds
this afternoon. Otherwise...expect very dry conditions and above
normal temperatures.

Late Friday into Saturday expect monsoon moisture to start to move
into the area from our South ahead of a trough over Southern Canada.
Expect isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across
our area on Saturday afternoon into early evening. A fire weather
watch will likely be needed for our area for Saturday afternoon into
early evening. The mid shift will use the next model run to narrow
done the best areas of thunderstorm potential. Our Southern zones
look to be in the best areas for thunderstorms currently...but all
zones could be impacted. Also...Saturday afternoon into early
evening look for winds with gusts near 25 mph for the Central
Mountains and the Upper Snake River plain with Relative humidity 15
to 20 percent. Winds will increase to 25 to 30 mph gusts on Sunday
as the trough moves east in Southern Canada. Relative humidity looks
to be below 15 percent in the Central mountains so a Red Flag will
likely be needed Sunday for zones 422...475 and 476.

A stronger trough moves over Northern Idaho late Monday into
Tuesday. Monday evening thunderstorms are possible over the Bear
Lake Region with a return of monsoon moisture. Expect gusty winds of
25 to 30 mph yet again mainly over our Northern areas on Tuesday. A
dry cold front associated with this trough will sweep across the
area Tuesday bringing dry conditions and more seasonable
temperatures...just slightly above normal...Wednesday through
Friday. Wyatt


&&

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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