Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 252341 AAA
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
441 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE TREND WILL BE FOR
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE...ENOUGH WIND AND SNOW AND SLICK
CONDITIONS PERSIST TO WARRANT EXTENDING THE WARNINGS IN THOSE AREA
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...STRONGER WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE
AT THIS HOUR AND IS ALLOWING FOR POCKETS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW TO REMAIN AND ALSO LOW WIND CHILLS. WINDS SHOULD WIND DOWN
LATE THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET ESPECIALLY WHERE
WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND THE SKY CLEARS OUT.  KEYES

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 142 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG CHRISTMAS DAY
STORM WINDING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER CIRCULATION OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL UTAH PER WV IMAGERY. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WORKING WITH
SOUTHEAST WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ALOFT. HEAVIEST BAND OF
PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS IN AREA OF
BEST OROGRAPHICS. SNOW IS RADAR BLOCKED FOR MANY LOCATIONS
PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST BUT AREA WEB CAMS SHOW LIGHT SNOW MANY
AREAS. ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT AT THIS POINT BUT SNOW IS CONTINUING
WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. WILL DROP THE HEADLINES FOR THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AT THIS TIME AND LEAVE THE
REMAINDER OF THE ZONES IN PLACE FOR CURRENT PLANNED EXPIRATION AT
5PM. WEAKENED POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. BY FRIDAY...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS REMAIN COLD...AND IF ADDITIONAL CLEARING IS REALIZED CURRENT
FCST MAY BE TOO WARM OVER FRESH SNOW. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS
ALONG THE DIVIDE LATE FRIDAY. BOTH GFS/NAM STINGY WITH THE
MOISTURE...BUT LEFT ENOUGH POP FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONGER RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. INTERESTING SCENARIO AS BOTH GFS/NAM PLACING ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN TO GENERATE WEAK QPF. BELIEVE
THIS MAY BE A CASE FOR STRATUS BUILDING UP IN A FAVORED TEMP
PROFILE FOR LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT. HAVE BUILT UP SKY/POP FOR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...NEXT SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE
PACNW LATE SATURDAY AND SPREADS SNOW ACROSS EAST IDAHO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT SNOW MAKER FOR EAST
IDAHO. HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARD FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LEANING INTO THE
EVENT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL FAVOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS AT THIS TIME
WITH LESSER QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN. DMH

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING MORE
SNOW TO SOUTHEAST IDAHO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  EXPECT LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.   STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH
SYSTEM BUT FOR NOW DOES NOT LOOK LIKE EXTREMELY HEAVY AMOUNTS.  DO
EXPECT EXTREMELY COLD CONDITIONS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH SUB ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
TUESDAY.  WILL HAVE SOME MODERATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
GK

AVIATION...IDA...SUN AND PIH HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT 1 PM AND
EXPECT TREND TO CONTINUE.  STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS
SUSTAINED SHOULD DROP OFF AT SUNSET WITH WESTERLY WINDS AT BYI THAT
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.  EXPECT MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE STRATUS RE DEVELOPMENT AT IDA AND PIH BUT FOR NOW ONLY WENT
IFR AT IDA.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ022>024.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ025.

&&

$$








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