Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 302054 RRA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
634 AM CHST SAT JAN 31 2015

RETRANSMITTED TO PLACE ON THE WEB

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING SHEAR LINE IS SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE
NEAREST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOW PERSISTENCE. STILL
EXPECT RELATIVELY DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE SHEAR
LINE CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY. NEXT SHEAR LINE PASSES THROUGH ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ATTENDANT CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
LOOK MINIMAL. CONVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
TROUGH COULD ENCROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON DAY 6 OT 7...BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST BIAS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE SWELL GRIDS INITIALIZED CLOSELY WITH THE LATEST ALTIMETRY
AND MARIANAS BUOY READINGS. STILL EXPECT MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK
TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. A TRADE-WIND SURGE COULD COMBINE WITH
A BUILDING NORTH SWELL TO CAUSE SEAS AND SURF TO INCREASE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
STREAM LINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF
MAJURO. NWP MODELS SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE DIMINISHING TODAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
DRIER CONDITIONS TO FILTER OVER MAJURO THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE TO AFFECT THE MARSHALL ISLANDS SHOULD ARRIVE NEXT
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
TODAY OVER KOSRAE...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO KOSRAE WATERS
LATER TODAY. FOR POHNPEI...SATELLITE SHOWS MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
OVER MUCH OF POHNPEI WATERS AND THE LATEST SOUNDING DATA INDICATES
STRONG CAPPING ABOVE 22K FT. THIS INVERSION WILL INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED JUST SOUTH OF POHNPEI WATERS. TROUGHING
WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BRING
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO POHNPEI
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

ALTIMETRY AND WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TRADE-WIND WAVES AND
SWELL HAVE DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO ALLOW SURF ON EAST FACING SHORES
OF KOSRAE TO FALL BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND ENTERING CHUUK
WATERS FROM THE EAST...ALBEIT LIMITED IN COVERAGE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY SOUTH AND EAST OF
CHUUK TODAY...CLOSER TO THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH. NORTHEAST
TRADE WINDS AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE FOR YAP AND KOROR THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR YAP SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR KOROR
MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AT BOTH LOCATIONS NEXT WEEK
IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/WILLIAMS



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