Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 210553
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
353 PM CHST SUN DEC 21 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE PRESENT
ACROSS THE MARIANAS AND FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES UPSTREAM TO THE
EAST. SEAS OF 9 TO 10 FEET ARE INDICATED AT THE RITIDIAN AND IPAN
BUOYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REFRESHED THE WIND GRIDS FROM THE LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT NO LARGE
CHANGES TO THE FORECASTS RESULTED. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL DROP
OFF SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN RAMP BACK UP TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING. SHOWERS WILL BE
ISOLATED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER LATE
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WINDS WILL DROP A BIT MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN BECOME FRESH TO STRONG AGAIN FOR TUE-THUR. BUT COMBINED
SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 9 TO 11 FEET OR SO...WITH SOME 12-FOOT SEAS
LIKELY IN THE EASTERN WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THEREFORE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING REEFS IS NOW HISTORY...BUT
A NEW ADVISORY IS LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY ALONG EAST FACING REEFS AS
RENEWED TRADE-WIND SWELL REACHES 9 FEET OR MORE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIR WEATHER HAS RETURNED TO
POHNPEI THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE OVER THE MARSHALLS IS SLOWLY
PROGRESSING WESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING CONVECTION
TO MAJURO LATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD BRINGING
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO KOSRAE AND POHNPEI MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KOSRAE A LITTLE LATER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE AND THE CONVERGING WINDS BEHIND IT CLEAR OUT
OF THE REGION...FAIR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MAJURO
TUESDAY AND TO KOSRAE AND POHNPEI BY THURSDAY.

LATEST ALTIMETRY AND WAVE MODELS INDICATE LARGE EAST-NORTHEAST
TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SEA HEIGHTS AT LEVELS THAT ARE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT AT POHNPEI AND MAJURO THROUGH THE WEEK. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS FOR KOSRAE MONDAY MORNING. HAZARDOUS
SURF OF 7 TO 9 FEET IS ALREADY PRESENT AT KOSRAE AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...REACHING LEVELS OF 8
TO 11 FEET BY TUESDAY. AS THE SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION...HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT MAJURO MONDAY AND
POHNPEI TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE SPRING HIGH
TIDES AT MAJURO MAKING COASTAL INUNDATION LIKELY ACROSS MAJURO AND
NEARBY ATOLLS. RESIDENTS ON ALL THE MENTIONED LOCATIONS NEED TO STAY
ALERT TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AND INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A BAND OF CONVERGENCE OVER CHUUK IS MAINTAINING ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER WENO THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE BAND CONTINUES TO DRIFT
WESTWARD...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TO RETURN TO CHUUK FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK. A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH CHUUK FROM
EASTERN MICRONESIA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING WET CONDITIONS BACK TO THE
STATE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ON TO THE
WEST...FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN TO CHUUK FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF KOROR AND EAST OF YAP THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
BAND OF CONVERGENCE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
WESTWARD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BOTH LOCATIONS TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECASTS.
FAIR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH IN FROM CHUUK BY TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK...A
TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM CHUUK TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO BOTH YAP AND KOROR.
MAINTAINED THE FORECAST FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS PREDICTED BY THE MODELS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE A POSSIBILITY.

BUILDING TRADE-WIND SWELL AND WIND WAVES HAS CAUSED SEA HEIGHTS TO
REACH HAZARDOUS LEVELS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION ACROSS CHUUK. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AT CHUUK BY TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED A BIT AT YAP AND KOROR...HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE LARGER
TRADE-WIND SWELL APPROACH THE REGION FROM CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST FRIDAY FOR
     PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/KLEESCHULTE





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