Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, OR

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FXUS66 KPQR 250315
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
813 PM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD COOL UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE INLAND ON FRI...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS
DECREASE FRI NIGHT. NEXT FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO REGION LATE SAT AND
SAT NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. WILL SEE DRIER AND MUCH WARMER
WEATHER NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING. SHOWERS HAVE
PRODUCED BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL THIS EVENING...BUT THESE
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS EVENING PROGRESSES...MAINLY DUE TO SOLAR
HEATING THAT HAS ENDED FOR THE DAY. STILL...WILL HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ALBEIT NOT AS INTENSE AS THOSE EARLIER TODAY.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL PUSH INLAND OVER THE PAC NW ON FRI.
THIS WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT INLAND IN THE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH AIR MASS AT THE MOST UNSTABLE AT THAT TIME
SEEMS THAT FRI WILL LIKELY TO BE SIMILAR DAY TO THIS PAST TUE...WITH
PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND EVENING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVIER SHOWERS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GENERALLY BB TO PEA-SIZED AT WORST.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING SHOWERS
LATER FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT AM.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT...AND MOVES INTO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DECENT ROUND OF RAIN AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUN. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO STAY BELOW
PASS ELEVATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 8 INCHES
OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES.     ROCKEY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AFTER A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS LINGERING MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BRING
THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR SO FAR IN THE INLAND AREAS. THE GFS
MODEL IS THE ONLY MODEL SO FAR TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION IN ON
THURSDAY...AND HAVE OPTED FOR NOW TO STAY DRY IN ACCORD WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. TOLLESON
&&

.AVIATION...W TO SW FLOW ALOFT WITH UNSETTLED AIR MASS OVER REGION
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS
UNDER/AROUND SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON FRI...WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED TSTMS AS AIR MASS WILL BE MORE
UNSTABLE.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS DUE TO SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. CHANCE OF TSTMS IN/AROUND
OPS AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.    CULLEN
&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE PUSHING INLAND
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...PRES GRADIENT HAS EASED OVER THE WATERS
AND WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF. WITH OBSERVATIONS BELOW CRITERIA FOR
SOME TIME NOW...HAVE ENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS A FEW
HOURS EARLY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE UNDER OR NEAR SHOWERS. SEAS REMAIN NEAR 10
FT...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE TO NEAR 9 FT EARLY FRI AM.

NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE SAT...WITH S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT AND
SEAS BUILDING BACK INTO THE LOWER TEENS.     CULLEN
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TONIGHT AND FRI AM
 ON ALL COASTAL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
FROM 12 AM TO 5 AM FRI.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..


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