Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 061150
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
650 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD THROUGH TODAY THEN
DRIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL PASS OFFSHORE OF THE
CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL
ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...

A COLD DRY AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IN THE
PAST DAY. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE... THIS MORNINGS READINGS WERE VERY
CLOSE TO THE 30 YEAR AVERAGES FOR MID-WINTER (MID TO UPPER 20S).
SUNSHINE WILL BE BRIGHT AND DOMINATE THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 50 IN MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

MODELS ARE IN BETTER OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE COASTAL STORM THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY SUNDAY OFFSHORE OF THE SC COAST. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SYSTEM AT THE CURRENT TIME IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN JUST FAR ENOUGH SE OF THE REGION THAT IT WOULD HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. TRENDS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. WE WILL
START THAT TREND AS WELL WHICH WILL INDICATE EVEN MORE OF A GRADIENT
FROM NIL POP TO LIKELY POP FROM NW TO SE AND ALSO LOWER THE POP
SOMEWHAT ALL AREAS EXCEPT FROM FAY TO GSB AND SE.

PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE FOR A NARROW WINDOW ON SUNDAY MORNING IN THE SE
ZONES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST EC ENSEMBLE MEANS THAT
SUGGEST A 50/50 CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH VERY VERY LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING WET SNOW. THE WEB BULB FORECASTS SUPPORT
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD STAY ABOVE 32
IN THE SE... BUT FALL TO 32 OR BELOW ELSEWHERE (28-32).

WE WILL TREND AGAIN TOWARD SOME LIGHT RAIN LIKELY IN THE FAR SE LATE
TONIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RAIN MAY BE MIXED WITH
SOME SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. QPF SHOULD BE 0.2 OR LESS
IN OUR FAR SE... WITH TRACE POSSIBLE TO KSOP TO KRDU TO KRWI ON THE
NW EDGE OF THE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION. THE SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY
QUICKLY LATE SUNDAY.

A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM THE LIKELY... TO CHANCE... TO SLIGHT CHANCE...
TO NIL POP... WILL EXIST FROM KFAY TO KRDU... WITH NIL POP WEST AND
NORTH OF RDU FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN THE
WEST WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN IS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
WESTERN PIEDMONT... TO LOWER 40S IN THE SE AROUND FAY TO GSB.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...

...COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL DOMINATE THE UPCOMING WEEK...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT:

IN THE WAKE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION...CARVING OUT AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US MONDAY-TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE A MILLER-B
TYPE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE REGION...WITH THE SECONDARY SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE NC-VA AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
INVOF THE LOW COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.THE RAIN
SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE-OVER TO OR MIX WITH SOME WET SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COMING TO AN END AS THE COLD ARCTIC SURGES INTO
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY RANGING FROM
UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20SNW TO
LOWER 30S SE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE...PERIODS OF
STRONG DCVA WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES ON TUESDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. BUT THE
BIG WEATHER STORY HERE WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH THE
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP(H5 ANOMALIES 3 TO 4 SD BELOW NORMAL)UPPER TROUGH.
WITH H8 TEMPS OF -10 TO -15C AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES BOTTOMING OUT
AROUND 1260-1270M...40 TO 50 METERS BELOW NORMAL...DAYTIME HIGHS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

JUST AS THE COLD UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A STRONG ARCTIC
VORTEX DIGGING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST US WILL BRING
ANOTHER ARCTIC INTRUSION INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...OWING TO HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE AFFECTS OF A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE WILL GRAZE MAINLY EASTERN TAF SITES (FAY AND RWI) WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS LATE MON... AND AGAIN MAINLY AT NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE TUE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT


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