Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 301145
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
745 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRI. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
POLAR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE
NC COAST ON SAT..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED AT 07Z ALONG THE NC COAST WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL SC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE A 1022 MB SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST TO EXPAND EAST AND MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH TO
NNE WIND...AND COOLER CONDITIONS...OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY. WHILE
CLEARING WILL STEADILY OCCUR FROM THE WEST...SOME 4-8 THOUSAND FT
CLOUDINESS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE APT TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY-
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING
WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY FRI
MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A PHASED NORTHERN BRANCH
POLAR AND ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SHARPLY SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME.
DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...BUFR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE AND SUGGEST JUST PATCHES OF
STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING LATE...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
40...WITH THE COOLER READINGS LIKELY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PIEDMONT
WHERE WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO GO CALM AT TIMES...VERSUS A CONTINUED
LIGHT NORTHERLY STIRRING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM THURSDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN PHASED STREAMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SHARPLY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES FRI AND INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT. AN
ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL MIGRATE EAST FROM THE MID-SOUTH
TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRI...THEN EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRI
NIGHT. A STRONG POLAR FRONT TRAILING THE SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING...THEN EDGE
MORE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE RAH CWFA BETWEEN 06-12Z SAT.
AFTER INCREASING CLOUDS AND HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 60S ON FRI...INTENSE
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND H5 HEIGHT FALLS OF 150-180 M/12 HR
CENTERED OVER SC BY 12Z SAT...WILL SUPPORT THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NW PIEDMONT TO LOW-MID 40S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. TAKEN LITERALLY...BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...AND
TO A LESSER DEGREE FROM THE NAM...WOULD SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND
WET SNOW AROUND DAYBREAK OVER THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. PREFER TO HOLD
OFF ON THE MENTION OF ANY SUCH OCCURRENCE IN THE NDFD...HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE STILL ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS UPCOMING HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM THURSDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE IN TO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY... WITH CLOSED
H5 LOW. MODELS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN
WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. SURFACE LOW LOOKS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON... AND WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL... THOUGH THE DISTRIBUTION
REMAINS TRICKY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT... AND
POTENTIALLY WARM ADVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE COASTAL LOW...
DETERMINING THE SEPARATION BETWEEN POSSIBLY LOWER 50S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN... TO LOW TO MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND
STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES BY SUNDAY... AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SETTLE OVER OUR AREA
EARLY MONDAY... BRINGING A LIKELY FROST/FREEZE TO THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE... AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM THURSDAY...

ASIDE FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND
CEILINGS AT KRWI THROUGH 13-14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. CONTINUED CLEARING OF MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MIDDAY AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS EAST BEHIND
A TROUGH ALOFT NEARING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE FROM THE NORTH...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN RAIN; SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS; AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...MWS



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