Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 251123
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
720 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 156 AM MONDAY...

DOWNSTREAM OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE MS AND OH VALLEYS....UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN WILL FURTHER/AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE AREA...KEEPING SEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS AROUND FOR ONE LAST DAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THIS MEMORIAL
DAY WITH A STABLE/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE. EXPECTED 8 TO 11 METER RISE
IN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS A CATEGORY(~3
DEGREES)WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 80S NORTH
TO MID 80S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

FORMIDABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS MORE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS
RETURN ON TUESDAY OWING TO THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY...AND SUBSEQUENT STRONGER DESTABILIZATION
INSTABILITY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE.

THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND
FTHLS...FUELED BY AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER THE THE POTENTIAL
FOR WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT IN THE FORM OF WEAK DPVA ATTENDANT TO A
SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY JUSTIFIES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND QUITE POSSIBLY INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT
COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IF THE OVER-ZEALOUS GFS IS TO BE
BELIEVED. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF US 1.

WHILE IT FEEL WARMER DUE TO RISING HUMIDITY...TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. HIGHS 83-87...WARMEST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT WILL STAGNATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE WAVERING WITH JUST HOW FAR EAST
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT WITH THE FAVORED SOLUTIONS CENTERING
AROUND THE ENSEMBLES AND A NOD TO THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION
WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE GFS IS A WET
OUTLIER...DUE TO FURTHER EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND ANY LACK OF FORCING OR JET SUPPORT...WHICH WILL BE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THEREFORE HAVE BEEN HESITANT TO REALLY
UP THE POPS AND QPF FORECASTS TOO MUCH. THAT BEING SAID...THE BEST
POPS WILL BE IN THE WEST EACH DAY WITH WED...THU...AND FRI...ALL
HAVING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME CONVECTION
LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE WEEKEND THE SURFACE HIGH
BEGINS TO REALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND THUS A DECREASING
CHANCE FOR RAIN. HAVE BACKED THE FORECAST OFF TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FURTHER EAST.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND APPROACHING 90
DEGREES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. LOWS CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: UNDERNEATH AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...EXPECT DRY VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDS
WESTWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST....INCREASING AFTER DAYBREAK INTO THE 8 TO 12 KT
RANGE... WITH A POSSIBLY A FEW RANDOM GUSTS INTO THE TEENS.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT...
SUPPORTING AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS TUESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FETCH OFF
THE ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW A RETURN IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
HUMIDITY...BRINGING INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS TUESDAY-THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYER RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP THE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...CBL


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