Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 041912
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND INTERACT WITH
A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL WAVER ACROSS VA AND NC THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ON TWO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXES...ONE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND THE OTHER NEAR THE NW PIEDMONT. IN
BETWEEN...A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
CONVECTION THROUGH SUNSET. THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT MAY
PERSIST PAST SUNSET AS A SLOW MOVING SFC BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS.

BETTER DCAPE AND INVERTED V SIGNATURE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE SOUTH SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WITH
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS OF STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND MARBLE TO QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN.

BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES...CAUSING
HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION TO SLOWLY BUILD/EXPAND NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK
SUBSIDENCE MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES. PERTURBATIONS ALOFT CROSSING WESTERN NC INTO
WESTERN VA WILL AID TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...LEADING TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SINCE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON UPPER
SUPPORT...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE NW...TRENDING
TO SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE SE.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TREND WITH MID 80S NW
DUE TO MIXTURE OF SUN/CLOUDS TO AROUND 90 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW INVOF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE TRAILING ASSOCIATED WEAK S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THUS... EXPECT
WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HOWEVER... AS A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME FULLY EXERTING ITS DOMINATES ON
CENTRAL NC... WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT GENERALLY REMAINING
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC INTO AT LEAST LATE WEEK. HOWEVER... AS
ANY SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS PASS TO THE NORTH
OF CENTRAL NC... EXPECT WE SHOULD STILL SEE A SHARPENING OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC DURING THIS THE MEDIUM RANGE...
HELPING TO YIELD ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY... WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S... WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW MID 70S BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...

SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH 00Z. EXPECT WIND GUSTS 30-40KTS IN
VICINITY OF THE STORMS. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
BETWEEN 00Z-03Z THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO MAY OCCUR WELL INTO THE
NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT INTERACT WITH THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION
AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A RISK OF
EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND OR LOW CLOUDS.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS LIKELY BY MID WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION..WSS



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