Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KRAH 301926
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARM
AND SLIGHTLY HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH S/W RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS TRAPPING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND MAINTAINING A LOW DECK OF STRATUS ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL NC AT MID AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR SOUTHERN-SW
COUNTIES WHERE PARTIAL BREAKS ARE OCCURRING (AS PER VISIBLE
IMAGERY). THIS PARTIAL SUN HAS AIDED TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID
70S. OTHERWISE TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

BULK OF CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SW COUNTIES WHERE MODEST
INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE STALLED SFC FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM
FRONT. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO
OUR WESTERN-NW COUNTIES. THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL WHILE SFC WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM AN ELY TO A SOUTH-SELY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S SOUTH TO THE MID/UPPER
50S NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD AND EXITING THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF CENTRAL NC EARLY SUNDAY. SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ADVECT A WARM MOIST AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC. WHILE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH
BREAK MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY TO ALLOW THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE STRONG OR SEVERE AS BULK EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR INCREASES LATE IN
THE DAY TO 35-40KTS (AID TO ORGANIZE CELLS INTO BROKEN BANDS)...AND
SBCAPE TOPS OUT AROUND 2000J/KG. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON WHEN/IF BREAKS DEVELOP IN
THE LOW OVERCAST AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. SEE LITTLE
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 70S NORTH HALF
TO 80/LOWER 80S SOUTH. MN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM SATURDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND THUS CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EAST...THEN MORE CONFINED TOWARD THE
COAST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN A DRYING
REGIME BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH ON THURSDAY AS A LARGE CLOSED MID-UPR LOW DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THUS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK DURING THAT TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR
AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION. RIGHT NOW...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS ONLY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT THIS MAY FEEL NOTABLY COOLER THAN
USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO WORTH NOTING THE H5 TEMPS CRASH
EARLY FRIDAY AND REMAIN NOTABLY COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...SO RESULTING
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED IN COVERAGE.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY...

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z
WITH POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS PROBABLE IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
TERMINALS. NOW APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO OUR FAR WESTERN-SW COUNTIES. A STRAY SHOWER MAY SKIRT
CLOSE TO KINT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER LATER TONIGHT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS. ANY AREAS OF RAIN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN-NW
PIEDMONT THOUGH NOW APPEARS THAT PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL VEER QUICKLY FROM AN EAST-SE DIRECTION AT
THE SFC TO A SSW FLOW A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE. THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL REACH SPEEDS OF 30-35KTS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING
40KTS IN VICINITY OF KINT/KGSO AFTER 09Z. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF LLWS IN THE TAF.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS PROBABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE TO THE LOW END OF VFR PARAMETERS. AFTERNOON HEATING OF THE
MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS. IT IS HIGHLY PROBABLE THAT
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR PARAMETERS WILL OCCUR DUE TO CEILINGS...IN
ADDITION TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.