Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 061157
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
STRONG MODERATING TREND WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...

GIVEN THAT THIS TURNED OUT TO BE A BIG RAIN EVENT...WITH LESS THAN 1
PERCENT OF THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION IN THE FROZEN OR FREEZING FORM...
I WOULD REALLY LIKE TO HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OUT THIS
MORNING FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE. HOWEVER... I WILL NOT CANCEL A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THAT IS IN PLACE AT THE CURRENT TIME BECAUSE THERE
IS SOME BLACK ICE OUT THERE AND THE HAZARD IS VERY REAL. ADVISORIES
ARE IN PLACE THROUGH THE RESPECTIVE TIMES AND WILL NOT BE CHANGED.

CLEARING RAPIDLY THIS MORNING AS SEEN ON SATELLITE. THE TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TO BETWEEN 17-25.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY AS THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS GENERALLY 35-40 NORTH AND LOWER 40S
SOUTH... A BIT ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO LACK OF ICE AND SNOW... AND
DEVELOPING SURFACE LEE TROUGHING THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTING WARMER
TEMPS. CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT... LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...

MODERATION IN A GRADUAL SENSE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS RETURN TO
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...

SUN-SUN NIGHT: SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST SUN GIVEN A
RELATIVELY NEUTRAL ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CONFINED WELL NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONFINED OVER THE DESERT SW/WESTERN
GOMEX. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S SUN AND LOWS UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S SUN NIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM
THE WEST/SW AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY...ATTENDANT
WAA/FGEN...AND RESULTING PRECIPITATION PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. THE LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A
PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WSW-ENE ORIENTED SWATH OF H7
FRONTOGENESIS AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTH/NW PORTIONS OF THE STATE
LATE SUN NIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE FOR
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...BEST CHANCES FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND NW.

MON-TUE NIGHT: WHILE PRIOR GUIDANCE INDICATED A SPLIT FLOW SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WITH LITTLE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTION...THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTION WILL
OCCUR UPSTREAM OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY LATE MON INTO TUE...WITH A
RELATIVELY MORE ROBUST GOMEX WAVE PROGRESSIVELY TRACKING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AS A RESULT...EXPECT INCREASED CHANCES
FOR RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUE. WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...WILL DECREASE HIGH TEMPS AND
INCREASE LOW TEMPS FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES.

WED-THU: UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DRAMATICALLY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
GUIDANCE INDICATING A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MAY BECOME CUT-OFF OVER
THE WESTERN GULF AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH NW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THIS TIME
WILL TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...

A TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 12Z-15Z... WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-078.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR NCZ073>077-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...BADGETT


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